UFC Fight Night Odds & Projections: Props & Picks for Every Saturday Fight in Las Vegas (Nov. 28)

UFC Fight Night Odds & Projections: Props & Picks for Every Saturday Fight in Las Vegas (Nov. 28) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Devin Clark at UFC APEX.

  • Anthony Smith and Devin Clark headline Saturday Night's 10-bout UFC Fight Night card, but Sean Zerillo is finding value in ever fight.
  • He breaks down everything you need to do for the undercard and main card, from betting odds and picks to model projections and analysis.

The UFC continues its run at APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday with a 10-fight card, despite the cancellation of Saturday’s originally scheduled main event between Curtis Blaydes and Derek Lewis.

The Light Heavyweight bout between Anthony Smith and Devin Clark – initially scheduled as the co-main event – will elevate to the main event slot and extend from three to five rounds.

From a fan perspective, this is the least appealing UFC card in some time and features a number of fighters who are literally competing to keep their UFC contracts. The promotion backloaded their 2020 slate and saved an incredible (and free) fight night card for Dec. 19.

There are a number of fighters who will be desperate for a finish on this card – not just a win – and I’m going to be mindful with respect to laying significant juice on big wagers in these high variance fights.

That being said, I still found multiple value betting angles worth exploiting for this weekend.

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If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks for each fight below:

Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 10 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside of the distance, or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC Fight Night Prop Projections and Picks

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

How to Bet Each Fight

Nate Maness vs. Luke Sanders

Sanders is on the wrong side of the age curve (turning 35 on Dec. 12) for Bantamweight, and returning off of a substantial layoff (last fought on Feb. 17, 2019), decreasing his win expectancy due to potential ring rust (fighters who return after a one-year layoff win less than 40% of the time.)

Though Sanders is the more technical fighter and also maintains a high output (6.00 significant strikes landed per minute, +1.95 margin), “Cool Hand” will give up five inches of reach, and four inches of height to “Mayhem”.

Ultimately, I don’t see projected value in any market for this fight, and though I like Sanders to win his fight IQ is extremely untrustworthy.

Bets to Consider:

  • Pass

Malcolm Gordon vs. Su Mudaerji

Like Sanders, Mudaerji is also returning from a significant layoff (last fought Aug. 31, 2019), but at age 24 “The Tibetan Eagle” has likely made significant improvements over the past 14 months — including time spent training his wrestling in Dagestan.

Mudaerji has finished 11 of his 12 career victories, but he has been submitted in all four of his professional losses, which is what makes this fight against Gordon intriguing.

The Canadian has finished 10 of his 12 career victories, including six wins by submission, but he has also suffered three knockout defeats (and he was submitted by triangle choke in his UFC debut against Amir Albazi).

In other words, we have two potent finishers at Flyweight, neither of whom is particularly durable themselves, and their strengths directly counter one another’s weaknesses.

While I technically show projected value on Gordon’s moneyline, I’m extremely low on his overall quality and potential as a fighter; I’m going to pass on that bet.

I would, however, consider taking a small stab at Gordon’s odds to win by submission (listed +600, projected +495), which I believe is his clearest path to victory given Su’s history.

But Gordon is extremely hittable on the feet and has not responded well to mildly powerful strikes in the past.

I projected this fight to end inside the distance 74% of the time, implied odds of -285, and I bet Under 2.5 rounds to win a half unit at -215. I would consider that bet up to -225.

Bets:

  • Under 2.5 Rounds (-215, 0.5u)
  • Gordon Wins by Submission (+700, 0.15u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Kai Kamaka vs. Jonathan Pearce

Kamaka was sharp in his UFC debut against Tony Kelley, and he’ll try to record a second consecutive UFC win on short notice against Jonathan Pearce, who was finished in his UFC debut by Joe Lauzon:

I’m a fan of Kamaka’s abilities, even though his fight history suggests that he is a decision machine. Kamaka has extremely fast hands and throws powerful combinations, but he can also mix in takedowns (landed all five attempts vs. Kelley) and maintain an exciting pace (fight of the night as the first fight on the Aug. 15 card).

As a result, Kamaka tends to win minutes with his versatility, but it’s only a matter of time before he starts to finish some opponents with his crisp striking, and Pearce — who has three first-round losses — seems like a vulnerable opponent.

You can toss Kamaka in a small parlay up to -335 (implied 77%), which is where I set his fair odds.

Bets: 

  • Parlay: Kai Kamaka / Miguel Baeza (+106, 0.5u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich

This is a difficult fight to get a true read on, but the projection suggests value on four bets: 1) the fight to go the distance, 2) either fighter’s odds to win by decision 3) the underdog moneyline.

I played nearly a 10% edge on the fight to go the full 15 minutes at -190 (implied 65%) relative to my projection at -300 (implied 75%).

Fourteen of the 19 combined career fights for these two women have finished inside of the distance (each of the past three for Mazany, and four for Ostovich), but I still like that distance bet up to -233 (implied 70%) at a five percent edge.

Likewise, you can bet Mazany to win by decision down to +125 (implied 44.5%) or Ostovich to win by decision to +383 (implied 20.7%) — either one of which represents a 5% edge relative to my projection.

I’m generally interested in the idea of fading Mazany as a favorite. She has just one win since 2017, on the regional scene against a 44-year-old fighter who was making her first appearance in nine years. Ostovich hasn’t competed since January of 2019 or won since December of 2017, so I’m not rushing to back her either.

I would need to see at least +177 (implied 36%) on Ostovich to consider betting the underdog moneyline here at a 3% edge (projection 39%).

Bets: 

  • Fight Goes the Distance (-190, 0.5u)
  • Ostovich Wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Martin Day vs. Anderson dos Santos

Similar to the last bout, the next few fights on this card are going to follow a common theme: Value on both the fight to go the distance and on one side to win by decision.

I would bet this bout to go the distance up to -212 (implied 68%), compared to my projection at -270, or 73%. Additionally, I would bet the underdog, dos Santos, to win by decision down +360 – a three percentage point edge compared to a projected line of +304.

I would need +159 or better to play dos Santos on the moneyline at a similar edge, but this is his first fight in more than 18 months, and Day — who has a 5-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage — should be able to pick apart the far more experienced Brazilian from distance (4.39 significant strikes landed per minute, +1.4 differential).

As a result, I’ll keep the dos Santos prop small. He’s going to need to win this fight with wrestling and control time, which seems like an uphill battle.

Bets: 

  • Fight Goes the Distance (-150, 0.5u)
  • dos Santos Wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Norma Dumont vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith 

Dumont missed weight for this bout, as she drops down from Featherweight to Bantamweight to face Evans-Smith, who is moving up from Flyweight.

Dumont detailed her painful 35-pound cut, and while the fact that she didn’t make weight isn’t dooming for her chances by itself (48% win rate for fighters who miss weight, at average odds of +102), it does speak to her potential lack of preparation and likelihood of losing gas in the later rounds due to that difficult cut.

135 is likely the best division for both women who are comparable in size — but Evans-Smith has competed against far superior opponents to this point in her career and shown a significantly more well-rounded skillset than the Brazilian.

Dumont is a veteran of just five professional MMA bouts, and it’s unlikely that she has made significant strides since her February loss to Megan Anderson.

I’m comfortable playing Evans-Smith’s moneyline to -138 (implied 58%), a two point edge compared to my projection (60%) given Dumont’s weight cut difficulties.

Furthermore, I would bet this fight to go the distance up to -334 (implied 77%), a five percent edge compared to my projection, and I would play Evans-Smith to win by decision down to +107 (implied 48.4%), which also represents a five point edge relative to my projection (-115, or 53.4%).

Bets: 

  • Evans-Smith (-133, Risk 1u)
  • Evans-Smith Wins by Decision (+150, 0.5u)
  • Fight Goes the Distance (-220, 0.5u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Bill Algeo vs. Spike Carlyle

Algeo was extremely game against Ricardo Lamas in his short-notice UFC debut, and though I would rarely recommend making a pre-fight wager against Carlyle – Algeo to win by decision offers value to +272 (implied 26.9%), a three percentage point edge relative to my projection (+235).

Consider a live wager on Algeo if he survives Round 1 against “The Alpha Ginger”, who fights like he is double-parked, and has finished eight of his nine career wins in the first eight minutes of the fight (seven in the first round), but is just 1-2 on the scorecards. (This also a great time to remind those who aren’t following me the Action App to download for instant alerts on all of my picks).

After winning the first round against Billy Quarantillo in May, Carlyle’s tank was empty by the end of the fight (attempted 40 significant strikes in Round 1, 32 in Round 2, 10 in Round 3). Algeo, who handed out 147 significant strikes in a three-round contender series loss and 89 against Lamas, could steal the final 10 minutes on volume if he drags Carlyle to deep waters.

This is a slight step back in competition for Algeo after a good debut showing on short notice against a very tough opponent, and he comes in on a full camp this time around, which makes him the clear value side in my eyes.

I would look to play Algeo as an even more significant underdog after likely losing Round 1 to a redlining Carlyle, but this fight also offers projected value to go the distance, and I would play Over 2.5 Rounds up to -120.

Bets: 

  • Over 2.5 Rounds (-106, 0.5u)
  • Algeo Wins by Decision (+275, 0.25u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato 

This welterweight fight seems destined for a finish, as has occurred in 23 of the 28 combined pro fights for this pair of kickboxing specialists.

I’m leaning on Baeza to preserve his undefeated record, as the second leg of my parlay, though much of the value has now been sucked out of his line.

After “Carmal Thunder” solidified his status as a contender with a win over Matt Brown in May, the 28-year-old should continue to make improvements and evolve into one of the best fighters in the division.

Baeza’s striking defense is a bit suspect, however, and I suspect that Sato – who carries some significant power – will have some openings to fire big counters.

I’m expecting a bit of a firefight between two powerful strikers and given enough exchanges one of these two men will likely fall.

My projection suggests that a finish will happen 79% of the time in this matchup, and I would bet the fight to end inside the distance up to-285 (implied 74%).

Bets: 

  • Fight ends inside the Distance (-250, 0.5u)
  • Parlay: Kai Kamaka / Miguel Baeza (+106, 0.5u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter

I can’t point to any direct projection value to justify this bet, though I do see the fight going the distance 20% of the time, and the histories of both men suggest that we could have a finish in short order.

However, I do like and did bet the Over 1.5 Rounds, at plus money, for this Heavyweight bout.

Over 1.5 with Heavyweights is the most uncomfortable bet to make in MMA – but often one of the most profitable wagers that you can make if you have the stomach for it.

Parisian has a 4-inch height and reach advantage, and making his official UFC debut after stints on the Ultimate Fighter and Contender Series.

He could be a bit gun-shy early, and Porter might be tentative coming off of a knockout loss in his own UFC debut.

I won’t try to justify this disgusting act any further, and I wouldn’t recommend tailing this total unless you take pleasure from self-inflicted punishment. 

Bets: 

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.5u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Devin Clark vs. Anthony Smith  

Following the cancelation of the Blaydes-Lewis main event, Anthony Smith will headline his one-millionth Fight Night Card and his bout with Devin Clark will now be five rounds instead of three, which plays to the underdog’s chances.

Smith is 1-3 in his past four fights, and while those defeats have come against top competition (Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksandar Rakic), and Clark represents a step down relative to those opponents, Smith has sustained two devastating beatdowns since May.

Heading into his 50th professional fight, Smith’s body is likely much older than his 32-year-old birth certificate suggests. Clark is starting to find his footing in his 11th bout with the promotion, more than five years since making his octagon debut.

On paper, Clark has the statistical advantages — superior striking (+0.93 to -1.46 significant strike differential, +11% accuracy, +6% defense, +0.43 strikes landed per minute) and grappling (2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, 36% accuracy) efficiency — though again, Smith has faced far superior competition.

Smith is supposed to be a high-level blackbelt, but he has been controlled by Rakic and Teixiera for more than 20 combined minutes in his last two fights – more than half of his total fight time.

If Clark is able to secure takedowns and maintain top position, he can certainly win enough minutes to secure rounds and exhaust Smith for the later stages of the fight.

A play on Smith to win by decision at +400 (projected +354) is not completely unwise, but “Lionheart” is just 2-3 on the scorecards for his career – he struggles to win minutes and often needs to find a finish.

I don’t see Clark finishing Smith until the later stages of this fight, and I do like his odds to win by decision down to around +265 (implied 27.4%), relative to my projection at +240 (implied 29.4%) for a small wager.

Furthermore, I played the “Fight Starts Round 3” prop at -160 or better, expecting both men to pace themselves out for a five-round fight.

Bets: 

  • Devin Clark Wins by Decision (+275, 0.25u)
  • Fight Starts Round 3 (-160, 0.5u)
[Bet UFC Fight Night at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Totals

  • Mazany / Ostovich, Fight Goes the Distance (-190, 0.5u)
  • Ostovich Wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
  • Day / dos Santos Goes the Distance (-150, 0.5u)
  • dos Santos Wins by Decision (+400, 0.25u)
  • Dumont / Evans-Smith, Fight Goes the Distance (-220, 0.5u)
  • Evans-Smith Wins by Decision (+150, 0.5u)
  • Algeo/Carlyle, Over 2.5 Rounds (-106, 0.5u)
  • Bill Algeo Wins by Decision (+275, 0.25u)
  • Parisian / Porter, Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.5u)
  • Devin Clark Wins by Decision (+275, 0.25u)
  • Clark / Smith, Fight Starts Round 3 (-160, 0.5u)

Inside the Distance Props

  • Gordon / Madaerji, Under 2.5 Rounds (-215, 0.5u)
  • Gordon Wins by Submission (+700, 0.15u)
  • Baeza / Sato, Fight ends inside the Distance (-250, 0.5u)

Moneylines

  • Ashlee Evans Smith (-133, Risk 1u)
  • Parlay: Kai Kamaka / Miguel Baeza (+106, 0.5u)

Don’t forget to follow my picks in the Action App.

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