UFC London PrizePicks Props: Consider This Parlay With Paddy ‘Baddy’ and ‘Meatball’ McCann
Credit: Kieran Cleeves/Getty. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Molly McCann and lightweight Paddy Pimblett.
The UFC returns to The O2 Arena on Saturday afternoon (noon ET) with a big 14-fight card. That means tons of opportunity to get a little action in. Fortunately, PrizePicks gives you an outlet to do that, even if you aren’t in a legal betting state – or if you just want to bet player props!
Below, you’ll find my favorite parlay for the card, as well as some potential add-ons if you’re hunting for a juicier payout.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC London PrizePicks Parlay
Paddy Pimblett Fight Time – Under 8.5 Minutes
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett is here for a good time, not a long time. He hasn’t seen the second round in any of his past four fights, including his first two UFC bouts.
While those have all been wins, Pimblett’s wild striking and chin-up defensive style raise his chances of being finished considerably. He’s never been knocked out as a professional, but his level of competition is steadily rising with each fight.
Pimblett’s opponent, Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt, also is one for quick fights. Counting his bout on the Contender Series, three of his four UFC wins have been inside of two rounds.
Leavitt has major deficiencies in the striking game, but he’s an excellent grappler. That’s similar to Pimblett, though the latter has shown far more power on the feet.
Combined, there’s a clear path to quick wins for both men, and both generally look to end things early.
It’s also a math play: The fighters’ combined implied chance to win in the first two rounds is more than 70%. Even accounting for the vig and the odds it ends between 8.5 and 10 minutes, there’s still some edge left on the bone.
Molly McCann Takedowns – Under 1.5
This line jumped out to me, as I’m not so sure we see Molly McCann even attempt multiple takedowns in this fight. She’s fresh off a knockout of the year candidate victory in her most recent bout, which was also at The O2 Arena, in March.
Her opponent secured her only UFC win by way of armbar, but she’s fairly non-threatening on the feet. Hannah Goldy has yet to record a knockdown in her UFC career, and opponents outstruck her fairly thoroughly in both of her UFC losses. Goldy has a positive striking differential overall, but that’s primarily due to a 16-2 edge in ground strikes landed in her career.
Even if McCann – for some reason – wants to bring this to the mat, I’m not sure she’ll be able to. Goldy has reasonably solid takedown defense, and she should be physically much stronger in this one.
McCann’s takedown success rate in the UFC is a meager 36%, so theoretically she’d need a large volume of attempts to get there. I don’t think she tries that many, so the under is my selection.
UFC London Quick Picks
- Jack Hermansson Under 1.5 Takedowns: “The Joker” went 0 for 8 on takedowns in his most recent fight, a matchup against a fighter in Sean Strickland who was clearly the better striker. That’s likely the case against Chris Curtis on Saturday, as well. Curtis has a perfect 100% takedown defense rate in the UFC, stifling three each from Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen.
- Nicholas Dalby Under 52.5 Significant Strikes: Dalby has gone over this mark just once in his past five fights. This time, he’s fighting Claudio Silva, a grappler who averages 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and 3.2 takedown attempts per round. It’s hard to pick up strikes while dealing with takedowns – even if you successfully defend them.