UFC Vegas 90 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Allen vs Curtis, Walker vs Brzeski & More (Saturday, April 6)

Check out the latest UFC odds with our UFC Vegas 90 best bets for Saturday afternoon's event on ESPN+.

UFC Vegas 90 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. All 12 fights, including the full preliminary card and main card, stream on ESPN+ beginning at 3 p.m. ET (noon PT).

The latest UFC odds for today's event show a handful of tightly contested bouts and a few pretty big mismatches. But betting value can be found in all types of matchups.

So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks, including two method-of-victory props, on Saturday afternoon’s ESPN+ card that present value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below.

*UFC odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 90 with our FanDuel promo code.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Dann Stupp: Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET

Despite the growing hype that precedes UFC newcomer Jean Matsumoto (-158), I still think we're catching a great price on the bantamweight in his UFC debut with Dan Argueta (+134).

Matsumoto, a 24-year-old Brazilian, is 14-0 with eight stoppages against an increasingly solid level of competition. A few wins for the LFA promotion (against 9-1 Inaildo Santos and 7-0 Marlon Casilio) opened the door for a Contender Series appearance and eventual victory over 6-0 Kasey Tanner.

I mention those fight promotions and those opponents' records to strengthen my argument that Matsumoto is ready for the bright lights of the UFC. Plus, this isn't exactly Madison Square Garden; it's the sterile UFC Apex, where Matsumoto fought his Contender Series bout last year.

Matsumoto is also a solid all-around fighter with good takedown defense and crisp, accurate striking.

Argueta, meanwhile, is a submission specialist who will likely drain his tank in the first half of the fight in pursuit of takedowns. He's determined, dogged and dangerous while moving forward, but it also leaves him exposed, especially when his takedowns fail.

After the emotional roller coaster (and financial hit) of two recent no-contests, I expect Argueta to hit the mat running on Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately for Argueta, I think that game plan is going to play well to Matsumoto's strengths. And even if Argueta has success early, I think Matsumoto can hang around to turn the tides and win the later rounds.

Defeating a wild card such as Argueta in a UFC debut is no easy task. But I think Matsumoto, one of the more intriguing UFC prospects of late, is up for the challenge.

I think Matsumoto wins this fight 65% of the time (-185), so I'd play his moneyline down to -170.

The Pick: Jean Matsumoto (-158 at FanDuel)

Sean Zerillo: Germaine de Randamie vs. Norma Dumont

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET

"The Iron Lady" Germaine de Randamie will return to the UFC octagon on Saturday after a lengthy layoff (October 2020).

The UFC's inaugural featherweight champion has only lost to the GOAT – Amanda Nunes – in the promotion, and her wins over Holly Holm, Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena are about as impressive as it gets for a women's bantamweight.

There are apparent concerns about physical regression and athletic decline for de Randamie – who is the taller, longer fighter and much more dangerous and technical striker – now that's so far removed from her most recent bout and giving birth to a child one year ago.

Still, Norma Dumont (-12o) may struggle with cardio down the stretch of this fight with de Randamie (+102); the Brazilian made the bantamweight limit for the first time in her UFC career and has previously missed weight at both 135 and 145 pounds.

Dumont has the grappling upside, but she is often content cage pushing and holding opponents against the fence without actively landing strikes, which leads to wonky optics for judges if her opponents land the more impactful strikes at range.

Two years ago, I'd have strongly favored de Ranadamie in this fight. And the potential for significant physical regression is more than baked into the current moneyline.

I projected Germaine de Randamie as a 52.6% favorite (-111 implied odds) in this matchup; bet her moneyline at any plus money price.

The Pick: Germaine de Randamie (+110 at FanDuel)

Tony Sartori: Valter Walker vs. Lucasz Brzeski

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC main card features a bout between two unranked heavyweights with Valter Walker (-225) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+188). Oddsmakers are expecting a finish in this fight; the odds for it to not go to decision is currently -200 or higher across the board.

If we are expecting a finish in this fight, then Walker by KO/TKO at +135 via FanDuel is the way to go.

First, both guys prefer to stand and bang. Neither is a submission artist; both fighters are north of 10-1 to win by that method.

Subsequently, if we are expecting a knockout to end this fight, then Walker simply poses the bigger threat. He is a massive guy and will carry a 30-pound weight advantage that will aid in the power aspect during the boxing exchanges.

Meanwhile, Brzeski has lost all three of his fights since earning a contract through Dana White's Contender Series, the latest of which was a quick first-round knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Although Walker has never stepped foot inside a UFC octagon, he brings three straight KO/TKO victories over the past 13 months into this fight.

He is not the prospect that Robelis Despaigne is, but I expect a similarly quick KO debut for Walker.

The Pick: Valter Walker by KO (+135 at FanDuel)

Billy Ward: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

Brandan Allen saw an opponent switch for his main event slot on Saturday, with his original booking falling apart due to an injury to Marvin Vettori.

In Vettori’s place stands the last man to beat Allen (-215): Chris “The Action Man” Curtis (+180). Curtis took that fight on short notice, too, knocking out Allen in the second round as a nearly 3-1 underdog.

It’s been a different story since. Allen has rattled off six straight wins against increasingly tough competition, finishing five of those fights via submission. Curtis has gone 3-2 with one no-contest in a fight he was trailing on the scorecards.

None of which is surprising, really. Allen was just 26 when the pair first fought while Curtis was 34. That means Allen is now entering his prime while Curtis is looking backward at his. Allen’s passed the eye test in a big way lately, adding impressive takedowns to his already elite submission skills.

We also saw Curtis taken down for the first time in the UFC against Imavov, who’s a far lesser grappler than Allen. Given the small cage and five-round nature of this fight, Allen should be able to get this to the mat at some point and finish the fight.

Cardio could also be an issue down the stretch for Curtis. Remember, he took this one on short notice. While Curtis strikes me as somebody who’s always at least close to fight shape, adding a couple of rounds on the back end of this one without a full camp isn’t ideal.

The Pick: Brendan Allen by Finish (+130 at Betway)