Download the App Image

UFC on ESPN+ 68 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Fili vs. Algeo, Boser vs. Nascimento, Zellhuber vs. Ogden (Saturday, September 17)

UFC on ESPN+ 68 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Fili vs. Algeo, Boser vs. Nascimento, Zellhuber vs. Ogden (Saturday, September 17) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Rodrigo Nascimento

  • Our MMA crew has best bets for today's UFC Vegas 60 event on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET).
  • The picks include two favorites and an underdog, as well as a prop play.
  • Check out all of the bets and breakdowns from Sean Zerillo, Billy Ward and Dann Stupp below.

Bantamweight contenders take center cage when Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong clash in the UFC on ESPN+ 68 main event on Saturday.

However, it’s just one of 14 bouts on the card, which streams on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo’s projections below using odds from BetMGM.

The must-have app for UFC bettors

The best UFC betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections


Billy Ward: Tanner Boser vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Our friends at FanDuel are again lagging behind the crowd in adjusting a line down, this time on Rodrigo Nascimento. Nascimento’s line has been creeping down throughout the week, moving from +165 or so to roughly +140 at most books.

That tells me he’s the sharper side for his bout against Tanner Boser on Saturday. That was my thought going in as well, with the Canadian Boser going 1-2 in his past three UFC fights, with the lone win coming against 38-year-old Ovince Saint Preux.

Saint Preux primarily competes at light heavyweight, giving Boser a significant size and youth advantage in that matchup. He’ll have neither against Nascimento, who’s slightly younger, has five inches in reach, and weighed in 32 pounds heavier for Saturday’s fight.

Nascimento is officially 1-1-1 in the UFC, but his no-contest was originally a knockout win over Alan Baudot. The win was overturned due to a positive test for Ritalin of all things, so I’m not worried about Nascimento’s past results being enhanced by PEDs.

He’ll be the significantly better grappler against Boser, who’s never so much as attempted a takedown in the UFC. While Boser likely has a striking edge, the reach disparity could make that a challenge for him to utilize.

I tend to lean toward the grappler in grappler vs. striker matchups, but especially at heavier weight classes. Once bigger fighters hit the ground, they tend not to get back up as easily, amplifying the edge from landing a takedown. Between that and the line discrepancy, that’s more than enough to pull the trigger on Nascimento. I’d bet him down to the +145 available elsewhere in the industry.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento (+154 at FanDuel)


Sean Zerillo: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Trey Ogden

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Daniel Zellhuber, 23, signed with the UFC off a win on last year’s Contender Series. “The Golden Boy” returns following a one-year layoff to face Trey Ogden, who dropped a decision to Jordan Leavitt in his short-notice debut in April.

Zellhuber is an immensely talented and well-rounded prospect and has likely improved over the past year while working alongside top coaches and training partners at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas.

Ogden’s debut was rather unimpressive – losing striking exchanges to Leavitt – and he is on the wrong side of the developmental curve at 32 years old.

Ogden may represent a step down in competition for Zellhuber – relative to his fight on Contender Series. Saturday’s fight is a prime smash spot for the youngster to see his hand raised in his promotional debut – in the same venue where he secured his contract last September.

Zellhuber opened a -240 favorite (70.6% implied) for this matchup. He’s been bet up to -360 (78.2% implied) at DraftKings at the time of writing. I projected his win probability at 81.4% (-438 implied) and would continue to lay the juice on his side up to -385 (79.4% implied), at a two percent edge compared to my number.

Moreover, I projected Zellhuber to finish this bout 56.9% of the time (-132 implied) and would bet his inside-the-distance prop to -122 (54.9% implied) at a comparable edge.

You can currently find the Zellhuber finish prop at +125 (44.4% implied) at DraftKings – a reasonably substantial edge compared to my number. Moreover, consider a poke at his submission prop (+1000 at FanDuel), which I projected at +719.

The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber (-325, 0.5u at PointsBet) | Zellhuber wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.5u at BetMGM)


Dann Stupp: Andre Fili vs. Bill Algeo

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Betting on Andre Fili over the years has surely come at a cost, and I’m not necessarily talking financially. Whether you’re betting for or against the longtime UFC fighter, he’s going to force you to endure some uneasy and wild times on fight night.

The 32-year-old debuted with the UFC nearly a decade ago, and in those 18 fights since, he’s never won more than two in a row – and he’s never suffered consecutive defeats.

Fili has a way of just hanging around, and that’s going to be key on Saturday against Bill Algeo.

The featherweights’ main-card bout is lined pretty closely, but I think there’s a compelling case for the Fili, a small favorite.

We know both fighters can strike, and in that regard, I think it’s a fairly even matchup. Both fighters are durable, and they’re willing to eat a punch (or four) to land one of their own.

However, Fili has some clear – but often unused – tools at his disposal. Namely? Takedowns, especially on an opponent who seems to be on rollerskates once he’s forced to try to keep himself upright.  Algeo, after all, has one of the more porous takedown defenses in the division, and it’s an almost instant way to change the momentum of an Algeo fight.

Whether Fili uses the potential takedowns to unload ground and pound or simply to help steal rounds, I think they’re part of an overall arsenal that the vet can use to win at least two of three rounds.

Again, Fili doesn’t make it easy on bettors. Expect his chin to get checked at least a few times in this fight, and don’t expect sound boxing defense to be a priority. Ultimately, though, with the vet in need of a recent win, I expect Fili to finally stick to a game plan that gives him a clear path to win rounds – and perhaps even grind his way to a late-fight stoppage.

I like Fili at the current -120 line, and I’d bet him down to -140 if the money keeps coming in on him. (And check out our MMA Prop Squad column on Saturday, in which I’ll share one of my favorite long-shot props that includes Fili.)

The Pick: Andre Fili (-120 at Caesars)

How would you rate this article?