Read our UFC Paris predictions for the Saturday, September 6 event live from the Accor Arena in Paris, France. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at noon. ET, with the main card officially starting at 4:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their three favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Paris Moneyline Projections
UFC Paris Prop Projections
Ante Delija vs. Marcin Tybura
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:15 p.m. ET
These European Heavyweights squared off for the M-1 Global title in 2015, with the bout ending midway through the opening round, when Delija's tibia shattered off a checked kick.
That matchup was a sliding doors moment for both fighters – Tybura (13-1 at the time) earned a UFC contract off that victory, and will make his 22nd octagon appearance on Saturday, while Delija had to wait nearly seven years for his big payday – winning the PFL Heavyweight Tournament in 2022 – and nearly a decade for his UFC debut.
When they initially met, Tybura was the more well-rounded prospect – and in his physical prime at age 30. In contrast, ten years later, I'd prefer the younger, quicker 35-year-old athlete against his 40-year-old opponent.
Delija doesn't have the best chin, but I'm far less concerned about his durability against Tybura – who has below average power for the division – than I would be against the majority of UFC Heavyweights.
In fact, I'd be more concerned about Delija going for a finish and gassing himself out early against Tybura – who offers above-average cardio for the division, particularly when he can force his opponents to grapple.
Tybura is a hugely popular underdog selection this week – fans and bettors are backing him to win the fight 66% of the time per my datasets, compared to implied odds as low as 47% (as of Friday) in the betting market.
As a result, my model makes Delija a -160 favorite (61.6% implied) for Saturday; bet his moneyline to -145.
Additionally, I show an edge on his decision prop (projected +296, listed +500), which you can use in a round robin; but I don't mind his Round 1 KO/TKO prop (listed +425) either.
The Pick: Ante Delija (-114 at BetRivers)
Mason Jones vs. Bolaji Oki
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:15 p.m. ET
Mason Jones came into the UFC as a hot prospect in 2021. At the time, he was a two-division Cage Warriors champion with an undefeated record and plenty of hype. After going 1-2-1 across four fights, he voluntarily left the promotion to work on his skills back in Cage Warriors, winning four straight fights before making his UFC return this May.
The now 30-year-old showed plenty of improvement in the first fight of his second stint, primarily in the grappling department. He picked up eight takedowns against Jeremy Stephens, matching his UFC career high.
This version of Jones is better suited for an opponent like Oki, a striker who brings both power and volume to the table. While Jones has struggled in stand-up brawls, he should have the option to turn this fight into a grappling match at any point if things start going against him.
Oki was submitted in his only UFC fight that featured extended grappling, sticking his own neck into a guillotine by Chris Duncan. His two wins in the UFC are somewhat less impressive, with a split decision over Timmy Cuamba and a 29-28 win over short-notice replacement Michael Aswell in his last fight.
Much like Jones in his first UFC stint, Oki has plenty of potential and athletic gifts, but isn't quite the full package as a fighter yet. The more fully-formed Jones now has the experience to withstand a firefight with Oki and dictate where this fight takes place.
That's enough of an edge for me, especially with Jones' moneyline price falling slightly throughout the week. The best available at the time of writing is -125 at DraftKings.
The Pick: Mason Jones -125 (DraftKings)
