UFC Vegas 62 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Cirkunov vs. Menifield, Hughes vs. Rodriguez, Taira vs. Vergara (October 15)

UFC Vegas 62 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Cirkunov vs. Menifield, Hughes vs. Rodriguez, Taira vs. Vergara (October 15) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Alonzo Menifield

  • UFC Vegas 62 takes place Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) in Las Vegas with 11 fights.
  • Our staff's best bets include Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield, Tatsuro Taira vs. C.J. Vergara, and Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez.
  • Check out the breakdowns and all of the picks below.

The ladies are the featured attraction at Saturday's UFC Vegas 62 event, which streams on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

However, in addition to flyweights Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo, the card – also dubbed UFC Fight Night 212 and UFC on ESPN+ 70 – features 12 other bouts.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Billy Ward: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez

Staff Writer at The Action Network

I’ll be the first to admit it: I was totally out on Sam Hughes.

She opened her career in the UFC with three straight losses, including two lackluster decisions and a doctor’s stoppage from an injury. She was outstruck in every fight, and her 64-inch reach – short even in the UFC’s lightest weight class – was doing her no favors.

Then she decided to wrestle. Over her last two fights, she attempted 12 takedowns, landing six of them. She’s won both of those, including an impressive ground-and-pound victory over Elise Reed in her most recent bout.

Her next opponent, Piera Rodriguez, looks to be a tougher test than Reed, with a strong grappling background herself. However, I’ll trust the wrestling of this version of “Sampage” over a more jiu-jitsu-focused attack from Rodriguez.

This one probably won’t go Hughes’ way if it stays standing, but it’s a toss-up at worst when it hits the canvas. Hughes also rates about as high as any fighter in the Dann Stupp “fight for your money” model.

I like betting toss-ups at +140 odds, which is the best line available on Hughes currently. Get your bet in quickly, though, as the line has already started to fall. I’d take it down to +120.

The Pick: Sam Hughes (+140 at FanDuel)

Sean Zerillo: Tatsuro Taira vs. C.J. Vergara

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Tatusuro Taira is seemingly of the better prospects to come out of Japan in recent memory.

The 22-year-old already has a wealth of experience (undefeated in 20 amateur and professional fights) and showed high-level grappling skill in his UFC debut against Carlos Candelario, where he closed as a -335 favorite.

His striking is still a bit raw – and Taira is still a few years away from his physical prime – but he should make significant improvements to round out his game as he matures, and he has a solid foundation to build off.

Taira is both the taller and longer fighter, and he should be able to use his kicks and footwork to control the range against the highly aggressive Vergara, who constantly crashes the pocket and turns his fights into brawls.

Taira typically looks to take the back of his opponents and lock in a body triangle, where he controls them for extended stretches. While Vergara proved challenging to control in his upset win over Klyedson Rodrigues at UFC 274, his takedown defense is vulnerable, and it's far easier to escape from guard than from back mount.

Vergara is seemingly durable but fights like an under machine, moving forward recklessly and eating big shots to pressure his opponents. And he's a bit careless when escaping from his back, making positional mistakes that higher-level opponents can expose.

This fight should be a high-paced and exhausting affair. Taira could get caught in the pocket by an aggressive boxer, but I expect him to find opportunities to finish Vergara on the mat – either from back mount or by snatching a neck or a limb in a scramble.

I projected this bout to end inside the distance 47% of the time (+112 implied), and I would bet that prop down to +122, at a 2% edge compared to my number.

Moreover, I projected Taira to win inside the distance 35.6% of the time (+181 implied), and I would bet his finish prop down to +198 at a similar edge.

Lastly, I projected Taira's submission line at +251 (28.5% implied), and you sprinkle that winning method prop down to +277.

The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+150, 0.25u at MGM) | Taira wins Inside the Distance (+225, 0.25u at MGM) | Taira wins by Submission (+350, 0.1u at MGM)

Dann Stupp: Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield

Senior Editor at The Action Network

We've seen the aggression and fight-stopping power of Alonzo Menifield. But that prolific striking is most on display when he fights with reckless abandon – while unconcerned with the shots that are fired back.

Misha Cirkunov, who's lost three straight bouts and six of his past eight, is unlikely to garner much respect from Menifield on Saturday night. Cirkunov is returning to light heavyweight after a pair of losses at middleweight, and he hasn't exactly looked like the most committed or inspired fighter during his recent skid.

That's why I expect this fight to be a quick one. Menifield is likely to strike quickly – and violently – without hesitation. And when he does that, he's a dangerous, dangerous man.

Sure, 34-year-old Menifield is a little long in the tooth to be considered a prospect. But he's been shoring up the holes in his game and has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his past few bouts. That obviously spells additional trouble for Cirkunov, who likely needs to wrap up a quick submission. Otherwise, Menifield is going to make him pay – just as quickly.

If you're looking for other ways to bet this fight, I think Menifield (-205 at DraftKings) is a solid parlay piece – if parlays are your thing. And if you feel like u1.5 rounds is a bit too hasty, DraftKings also has -190 odds on the fight not starting Round 3, which is also a solid option to give you an extra half-round of action.

Ultimately, though, I think Menifield tees off quickly in the first round – or Cirkunov catches him early with a submission during a transition or scramble.

So, under 1.5 rounds is my official play.

The Pick: Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield under 1.5 rounds (-120 at WynnBET)

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