UFC Vegas 87 Props: 5 Top Picks and Predictions from the MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, March 2)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Jamie Pickett
Check out our UFC Vegas 87 prop bets with our MMA experts' favorite long-shot props for Saturday afternoon's event on ESPN+.
UFC Vegas 87 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the first fight of the 11-bout card kicks off at an early start time of 1:30 p.m. ET (10:30 a.m. PT).
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +23.6 units a +7.0% ROI per bet to date.
Saturday's fight card is noticeably absent of star power and familiar names. However, our experts have combed the UFC Vegas 87 odds board and prop markets, and we found some value nonetheless.
Check out their picks below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*UFC Vegas 87 matchup odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel, where you can bet on MMA with our FanDuel promo code.
Tony Sartori: Jamie Pickett by Decision (+750)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
The featured prelim on Saturday's UFC Vegas 87 card is a middleweight bout between unranked contenders Eryk Anders (-550) and Jamie Pickett (+410). For my Prop Squad pick this week, I am going to target the underdog to win by decision at +750 via FanDuel since I believe that is Pickett's most likely avenue to victory anyway.
My philosophy with this fight is that Anders will likely win and is deservedly priced as the favorite, but I think recency bias on Pickett has inflated Anders' line way too far. Yes, Pickett has lost four straight fights, but he has faced some solid names, and all four guys have fewer professional losses than Anders.
This bout feels like one of Pickett's last chances in the UFC, but Anders is surely a beatable veteran. Plus, Pickett's back being up against the wall makes me more confident in him, especially given that this is a guy who has shown he is capable of being a very intelligent fighter and turning fights into the style he wants.
He's looked and sounded good all week, but that is just optics and should be considered but not prioritized. What truly makes me believe that Pickett is going to turn his fortunes around on Saturday is that aforementioned experience/intelligence, and I think he will "fight a smart fight," for a lack of better words.
Pickett is going to be bigger and longer, boasting a one-inch height advantage and five-inch reach advantage. Anders' biggest strength is his massive power, but Pickett can nullify that by utilizing this massive reach advantage to keep Anders at bay and pick his shots from the outside.
The longer this fight goes, the more Pickett's chances for success increase, and if he is just dancing on the outside and picking his shots while utilizing that reach, I absolutely think it is a plausible outcome that he survives to the scorecards and wins by decision. Six of Anders' eight professional losses have come by decision.
In a card full of long favorites, I think there are worse fliers to take than Pickett finding his way back to the win column at +750 with a smart fight against Anders by keeping his distance, picking his shots, and handing over his fate to the judges.
The Pick: Jamie Pickett by Decision (+750 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Muhammad Mokaev by KO (+1150)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Muhammad Mokaev (-370) is an extremely aggressive grappler who sets a relentless pace and is never out of a fight. His opponent, Alex Perez (+295), is a fighter who may not be old by his age, but he is old in terms of the wear and tear on his body.
With 10 straight canceled fights due to health issues and weight misses, Perez may not have much gas left in the tank.
Mokaev is gunning for a short-notice title fight against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301, but the champion has advised Mokaev needs to win impressively in order to receive that honor.
My best bet for UFC Vegas 87 is Mokaev ITD (inside the distance) at +120, but we are big-game hunting here at MMA Prop Squad. So, we are also taking a shot at the KO/TKO at +1150 at BetRivers (or +1100 at FanDuel).
Mokaev will be the better-conditioned fighter, the hungrier fighter, and he will find himself in control positions when grappling. If you have a dominant position, you can find a KO, and we have seen Perez fold to ground and pound before.
The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev by KO (+1150 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Vitor Petrino in Round 2 (+430), Round 3 (+850)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
One of the primary reasons Vitor Petrino is such a large (-390) favorite against Tyson Pedro (+310) in the co-main event is his cardio. Including the Contender Series, Petrino is 4-0 under the UFC banner with two finishes in the second round, one finish in the third, and a dominant decision win.
Which is a stark contrast from Pedro, who’s 10-4 as a professional – with all 10 wins coming in the first round. Pedro is 0-3 in fights that extend beyond the five-minute mark.
Pedro is a dangerous striker through the opening frame, but that power wanes quickly. He’s also shown a tendency to gas out during grappling exchanges, something that his Brazilian opponent could (and should) take advantage of early.
While Petrino arguably has power to match Pedro, the path of least resistance would be to take this one to the canvas. Petrino is averaging more than four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, and he shouldn’t have a problem against the limited wrestling of Pedro, who was either taken down or submitted in all of his UFC losses.
I prefer the later-round props over the submission line for two reasons. One is the odds – Petrino by submission is a bit worse at +400. The other is Pedro’s BJJ black belt, which should in theory allow him to stay safe on the ground.
That is, until he gasses out. An empty tank turns black belts into white belts, so Petrino should be able to finish this one down the stretch.
The Pick: Vitor Petrino in Round 2 (+430 at FanDuel) | Petrino in Round 3 (+850 at FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Shamil Gaziev by Round 1 KO (+380)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Shamil Gaziev (-180) won his UFC debut in December with a Round 2 TKO stoppage over Martin Buday, and he's still undefeated in his MMA career with a 12-0 record as he steps up to face Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+152).
Rozenstruik, who began his career 10-0, has lost five of his last eight fights, two by knockout and both in the first round.
We last saw him lose to Jailton Almeida by rear-naked choke this past May, so any time Rozenstruik has gotten by Round 1 and lost, it's been to the cards.
The lesser-known Gaziev is worth backing. He is 34 but rapidly improving in MMA after debuting in late 2020 with eight wins by knockout, seven before his entry into the Contender Series.
This is an explosive fight with an over/under of just 1.5 rounds, and they'll find each other early, likely making this a short main event. I lean Gaziev given what we've seen from Rozenstruik as of late, but whoever you back, he's worth an early-stoppage sprinkle in this heavyweight contest.
The Pick: Shamil Gaziev by Round 1 KO (+380 at BetRivers)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
