Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Odds, Prediction
| Luque Odds | +215 |
| Holland Odds | -265 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-180/+140) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland predictions, picks and odds for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
With 18 performance bonuses between them, Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque seem destined for a "fight of the night" scrap at UFC 316. Holland has always been more interested in entertainment than winning, while Luque's aggressive style typically leads to somebody getting finished. While this might not be the most impactful fight in terms of rankings, it could be the most fun on the card. It's even more fun if you're holding a winning ticket, so let's see what we can find.
Here's my Luque vs. Holland prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Luque | Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-10-1 | 27-13 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:37 | 10:28 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/27/1991 | 11/5/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.05 | 4.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.22 | 3.10 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.99 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 37% |
| TD Def | 62% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.6 |
At first glance, this might seem like an incredibly bad stylistic matchup for Kevin Holland. He's been submitted three times in the UFC and has openly campaigned for fights against strikers, while Vicente Luque has six UFC submission wins (seven counting The Ultimate Fighter).
Looking through Luque's record and watching some of those submission wins has me less concerned for Holland. Each of those submission wins for Luque came from either an anaconda choke or a D'arce, which are essentially the same submission but with the opposite arm performing the choke.
More importantly, they almost exclusively came in response to takedown attempts from Luque's opponents. A failed shot puts you in the perfect position to be hit with either of those chokes, something that Luque has capitalized on throughout his career.
That's probably not going to an option this time, as Holland is a reluctant grappler despite his BJJ black belt and underrated skills on the ground. He will occasionally mix in a takedown, but often lets his opponent back up as if the takedown attempt was a mistake.
He should have the wherewithal to avoid that trap with Luque, given the threat the Brazilian poses on the ground.
To Luque's credit, he forced some of his opponents into bad shots by hurting them on the feet, and he had plenty of knockout wins in the first half of his UFC career. However, striking exchanges haven't gone his way lately, with bad knockout losses to Joaquin Buckley and Geoff Neal in two of his last four fights.
Plus, this is welterweight Kevin Holland. As I pointed out before his last fight, he's an entirely different fighter at 170lbs instead of 185. He has the speed to compete with anyone at welterweight, and a massive length edge over Luque that's especially helpful in the full-sized PPV cage.
While Luque might be the better technical striker, Holland's mix of size and speed should make him the more effective fighter on the feet. Especially considering the serious durability concerns surrounding Luque, who was diagnosed with a brain bleed following his knockout loss to Geoff Neal.
That his first career knockout was followed by his second just two fights later is a concerning sign, and chin (or in this case brain) issues tend to be a one-way street.
Luque vs. Holland Prediction
I trust Holland's takedown defense at welterweight enough to expect this one to be mostly a standing fight, where I give him a clear edge.
While he wasn't able to find the finish in his return to the division earlier this year, he did drop Gunnar Nelson in Round 1 of that fight.
I'm concerned enough about Luque's chin that I suspect a knockdown this time will lead to a finish. FanDuel has a fairly generous price on Holland by knockout at +160, considering he's almost a three-to-one favorite in a fight heavily favored to end inside the distance.
I'm also interested in under 1.5 rounds at +148 (BetRivers). We could win both bets, but this way we're covered if Holland's fight IQ fails him and he shoots his way into a submission.
Billy's Pick: Holland KO +160 (FanDuel) | Under 1.5 Rounds +148 (BetRivers)
