The Detroit Pistons (21-5) and Dallas Mavericks (10-17) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. EST from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on FDSDET.
The Pistons are 6-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Pistons -6), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Detroit is a -240 to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +195 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pistons vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, December 18.
My Pistons vs Mavericks Prediction
- Pistons vs Mavericks pick: Cooper Flagg Under 23.5 Points & Assists (-115)
My Mavericks vs Pistons best bet is on Cooper Flagg to record under 23.5 points and assists combined, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Pistons vs Mavericks Odds
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
Pistons vs Mavericks NBA Preview
It’s never fun to bet the under after a player just scored 40 points, but this could be a good spot to fade that performance.
The number for Cooper Flagg looks inflated, especially considering the matchup. He’s coming off two solid games in a row, but several factors suggest regression may be on the horizon.
Anthony Davis is expected to play after a short absence for the Mavericks. His time off has felt more like injury management than a true injury, and the last time we saw him he played 33 minutes — the most since early November.
Davis’ presence affects Flagg’s production, particularly assists, as his assist rate drops when Davis and Ryan Nembhard are on the floor.
Pistons vs Mavericks Prediction, Betting Analysis
This should be a fast-paced game — both teams rank in the top six or seven in pace — but Detroit has been strong defensively, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency.
Taking all this into account, Flagg is unlikely to repeat a mid-20s point output. My model projects him for 18.5 points and 3.2 assists.
The market currently prices Flagg’s assists at 3.5, with some juice implying closer to 3.7-3.8. My model has him at 3.1, showing value on the under.
Additionally, last game’s assist total was aided by high conversion on limited potential assists — he only had six potential assists and converted all six, and the model accounts for this, adding confidence to the under on both points and assists.
Pick: Cooper Flagg Under 23.5 Points & Assists (-115)
