Joel Embiid Odds | Player Prop Pick, Prediction for 76ers vs. Celtics

Joel Embiid Odds | Player Prop Pick, Prediction for 76ers vs. Celtics article feature image
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76ers vs. Celtics Odds

76ers Odds+7.5
Celtics Odds-7.5
Over/Under217
DateWednesday, May 3
Time8 p.m. ET
How to WatchTNT
Odds via BetMGM as of Wednesday

76ers star and newly crowned MVP Joel Embiid makes his return to the NBA postseason for Game 2 between the 76ers and Celtics on Wednesday night.

Already, Embiid's presence has drastically altered the marketplace.

While the 76ers had been as long as +400 on the moneyline at BetMGM, that line has reduced to +275. And the spread fell from 76ers +10.5 to +7.5 on account of the news.

But are his player props fairly priced? We don't know what version of Embiid we're going to see tonight. He won't be at 100% — so will he get 100% of the sets he ordinarily would?

The Action Network's set of proprietary algorithms consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of every NBA playoff game to provide a fair value line for each contest.

And for Game 2: 76ers vs. Celtics, the models indicate a substantial edge on two Embiid props tonight.

The algorithms consider lingering injury issues, matchups, stylistic differences and more.

Joel Embiid Player Prop Projection, Prediction

The models indicate Embiid is being underpriced in the market despite his lingering ailments.

Despite his injuries, the models indicate the books are too bearish as to what Embiid's usage rate might be for this game.

While the market implies a roughly 26% usage rate on average, our models indicate Embiid on average will accrue a 32.5% usage rate tonight.

That's relative to a 2022-23 season usage rate of roughly 37%.

By these metrics, Embiid is projected to put up about 29 points tonight. That includes about 3.5 assists.

Meanwhile, the best prices on the market are with BetMGM at o24.5 points (-125) and o28.5 points and assists (-110).

This pick has a roughly 9% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 9% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 9% in expected value.

Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.

Joel Embiid Best Player Prop: Over 24.5 points, Over 28.5 points and assists (via Action Network PRO tools)

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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC