Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Pick | NBA Betting Prediction (Thursday, May 4)

Lakers vs. Warriors Odds

The Warriors lost just their fifth Game 1 of the Steve Kerr era on Tuesday night against the Lakers.

But perhaps that was to be expected. Teams coming off of a seven game series have won only 39% (33-52) of their next series' Game 1.

Every team is fatigued to some degree this time of year. Still, the Warriors are the team most eligible to use that as justification. An emotionally turbulent series with the Sacramento Kings culminated in Steph Curry needing 50 points to close out the series. Then, the team got just a day's rest before the Lakers came to town for the following series.

The Warriors' fatigue hasn't changed much in just two days — that's for sure. But the data has.

Lakers vs. Warriors NBA Prediction

Teams that are down 0-1 in a home series are 20-1 straight up and 19-2 against the spread (ATS) in Game 2 since the 2018-19 NBA season, according to Action Labs. They cover the spread by an average of about 11 points. A major hat tip to our director of research Evan Abrams for this tidbit.

The best price on the market is with BetMGM at Warriors -5.5 (-115).

Those aforementioned records include a 6-0 record this postseason — both straight up and against the spread.

The Celtics pulled it off against the 76ers last night. Then, the Knicks vs. Heat the night before. In the first round, the Bucks, Suns, Grizzlies and Cavaliers all pulled off the same feat.

Do keep in mind that this is a limited sample size. Bet accordingly. In addition, it's best practice to wager the same unit sizing across all wagers over a long sample size in order to maximize profits.

Pick: Warriors -5.5 (-115) at BetMGM.