LeBron James Scoring Tracker: The Path To 40,000 Points

Historical Impact

By Michael Fiddle

LeBron James is about to score his 40,000th career point. That’s not a typo!

When us sports fans have that inevitable conversation about which records will never be broken, we acknowledge feats including Wilt Chamberlin’s 100 point game, Cy Young throwing 749 complete games, Emmitt Smith’s 18,355 career rushing yards, and Simone Biles having 23 Olympic Gold Medals. Entering this conversation will be LeBron James' career point total, wherever it ends up, beyond 40,000. My expectation is that we never see something like this again.

LeBron James has played 21 seasons, 1,473 total games, attempted 28,983 field goal attempts, and played 55,876 minutes. The durability, longevity, and insane level of consistency has brought us to the brink of the first, and possibly only player ever, to reach 40,000 career NBA points.

It should also be noted that all of these stats are regular season only! We can do an entire post about LeBron James’ postseason rankings, also soaring well above his peers.

Countdown Tracker:

• Current Points: 39,960
• Points away from 40k: 40
• Season Average: 25.2

Lakers Upcoming Schedule and Best Bet:

By Michael Fiddle

• 2/29 vs Washington Wizards
• 3/2 vs Denver Nuggets
• 3/4 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
• 3/6 vs Sacramento Kings

LeBron averages just under 25 points per game this season (24.8), and sits just 40 points from the record (157). Simple math based on these averages show us that LeBron is an expected 1.61 games away from surpassing 40k. This would bring us to 3/2 versus the Denver Nuggets, occurring sometime in the third quarter.

However, these average projections serve as a baseline, with a bit more nuance needed. When I look at the upcoming schedule, the first thing that sticks out is the Lakers next game is the second leg of a home back-to-back. Does LeBron suit up to play against the Wizards? He has already missed one game in the last two back-to-back sets this month. The Wizards have just nine wins on the season. If LeBron misses this game, suddenly we are pushed back yet again.

So while the averages would point us towards 3/2 versus Denver being the landing spot for the record breaker, There is a high enough degree of uncertainty to avoid further betting the date right now. The best way to approach this is the type of basket.

Method of Basket

By Maltman

Books separate method of basket in one of two ways. 

On FanDuel and BetMGM, they have broken up the method into five different categories: Dunk, Other, 3-Point Field Goal, Layup, and Free Throw. On DraftKings, they have broken it up in three categories: 2-point field goal, 3-point field goal and free throw. The best lines are as follows:

• 2-point field goal: -160 (DK)
• Layup: +200 (MGM)
• Other: +325 (MGM)
• 3-pointer: +300 (MGM, FD)
• Dunk: +600 (MGM)
• Free Throw: +500 (FD)

Overall this season, LeBron’s point distribution has broken down as follows (rounded):

Using these numbers, we’d get slight positive EV on 3-pointer and layup, neutral on the free throw, and huge negative on the other and dunk method.

But, just as his point distribution by quarter isn’t even, his method scoring isn’t even as well. In the first quarter, LeBron scores a higher percentage of his points than average from three, while in the second, he scores a higher percentage from the free throw line. 

Since he is currently more likely to score in the first half, there is a little bit of value on both 3 point field goal at +300 and Free Throw at +500. For now, I’m going to hold off, but as we get closer to his total, there is a good chance that the value on 3 pointer especially will hold and be worth betting.