Lakers vs Kings Pick, Prediction Tonight

The Los Angeles Lakers head north to Sacramento to take on the Kings in a Wednesday night clash in the Western Conference on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET as we break down our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Lakers enter as -2 favorites, but is that where the betting value lies? Let's make a Lakers vs. Kings pick and prediction in our NBA betting preview for Wednesday, March 13.

Pick: Lakers -1 · Under 239

Pick: Lakers -1 · Under 239

The last five games for L.A. have been incredibly impressive. Its three wins came against the Thunder, Bucks and Wolves — all of which are top two teams in their respective conference.

The two losses came against the defending champion Nuggets and the Kings.

In the game against the Kings just one week ago, the Lakers got up by 20 points early before quickly relinquishing the lead and ultimately losing the game.

Is this an emerging revenge spot? Usually, when teams play two games in short order, we see a split in winners. This is especially true when the favorite in Game 2 was the team that lost Game 1.

I've been down on the Kings for the vast majority of the season. Their advanced analytics are like those of a .500 team, but they've eked out more wins than their net rating implies.

Sacramento currently sits a truly impressive 10 games above .500 — however, I believe the Lakers are the better team.

The Kings will be without Keegan Murray in this contest, which is a big hit to their defensive versatility, 3-point shooting and depth. Despite Murray having a minimal impact on the spread, he has a big impact on the total, especially in this matchup with Anthony Davis in the paint.

Murray being out is a boost to both L.A. and the under.

The must-have app for NBA bettors

The best NBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

The total opened at 239.5 and is steadily climbing down. I would recommend grabbing any number at 238.5 or better as soon as possible because I think this goes further south.

It's a combination of the matchup without Murray and the league-wide trend of unders cashing at a high rate because of the dip in free -hrow rate.

I'm also seeing Lakers -1 move out to -1.5 at many books, which implies L.A. will have its two superstars active. I would make these both small bets because even though the movement from 1.5 to 2.5 on a road favorite isn't a huge value grab, it's still +EV.

Pick: Lakers -1 · Under 239