The Milwaukee Bucks (12-18) and Memphis Grizzlies (14-16) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSE.
The Grizzlies are 5.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Grizzlies, -5.5), with the over/under set at 228 total points. Memphis is a -210 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Milwaukee is +175 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Grizzlies predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 26.
Bucks vs Grizzlies Prediction, Picks
- Bucks vs Grizzlies pick: Over 228 (-110)
My Bucks vs Grizzlies best bet is on the over, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Bucks vs Grizzlies Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Bucks vs Grizzlies NBA Preview
The Bucks enter this matchup struggling in the Eastern Conference with a disappointing 12-18 record, while the Grizzlies are hovering around .500 at 14-16 in the West.
Beyond the standings, this game carries an added layer of intrigue as a potential streak-buster for Milwaukee, which has lost its last seven straight games against Memphis, including a string of defensive breakdowns that have allowed the Grizzlies to dictate pace in recent history.
Since that historical skid, the Bucks have played inconsistently, but most recently snapped an eight-game road losing streak with a decisive 111-94 road win over the Indiana Pacers on December 23.
In that victory, the Bucks held Indiana to just 41% shooting from the field in a balanced, defensive effort that showcased their ability to control tempo even without key players, forcing others to step up in a shorthanded rotation.
The Bucks achieved this without star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains sidelined with a right calf strain, along with Taurean Prince out due to a neck issue, forcing a focus on perimeter scoring and transition opportunities.
Memphis comes in off a mixed bag, dropping a 119-103 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder on December 22 before rebounding with a high-scoring 137-128 win over the Utah Jazz on December 23.
In the victory, Santi Aldama exploded for a career-high 37 points on seven made three-pointers, showcasing the Grizzlies' ability to light it up from deep even amid injuries.
Jaren Jackson Jr. contributed 22 points and eight rebounds, while Desmond Bane added 20 points and six assists for a Memphis team that's been without key pieces but still managed to push the pace and score efficiently in stretches.
The Grizzlies' recent games have featured explosive offensive outbursts, including multiple high-scoring quarters against Utah, highlighting how this squad can accelerate and overwhelm defenses when their depth shines through.
Bucks vs Grizzlies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup lines up well with our “Contrarian Overs, Good Road Teams” system. Milwaukee fits the profile of a strong road team capable of dictating tempo and scoring, especially coming off a decisive road win that signals renewed offensive confidence and energy.
With public and market sentiment often leaning toward unders in games involving injury-riddled rosters or cross-conference matchups with perceived defensive focus, this creates a contrarian opportunity.
Milwaukee’s ability to push pace through transition and perimeter play, combined with Memphis’ recent offensive rhythm behind Aldama and an improving supporting cast, points toward a faster, more free-flowing game than the total suggests.
Even with multiple absences on both sides — including Giannis for the Bucks and players like Brandon Clarke and potentially Ja Morant for the Grizzlies — the teams have shown they can score efficiently and stretch games into higher totals.
When these elements align — a strong road team, non-division matchup, recent decisive win, and suppressed expectations — the over becomes more attractive.
In this spot, Milwaukee should set the tone offensively, Memphis should respond in kind, and the conditions are there for scoring to exceed the market number of 228.
Bucks vs Grizzlies Betting Prediction
- Over 228 (-110)
