NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Projections: Betting Analysis for 76ers vs. Heat and Mavericks vs. Suns (May 2)

Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs tips off Sunday and I'll be providing projections for both Games 1-2 and 3-4. The totals should remain the same despite the venue change, but there is a difference.

Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.

I’ll also be highlighting some of the entire playoff slate with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.

NBA Projections Model

NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks

Note: My projections won't be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action's PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.

Check out my analysis for a few of the weekend's Round 2 matchups.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

When Philadelphia 76ers team president Daryl Morey pulled off the blockbuster deal to trade the disgruntled Ben Simmons, many believed the 76ers may have found their very own Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant with Joel Embiid and James Harden.

But the 76ers won’t have Joel Embiid for at least the first two games of this series after he suffered an orbital bone fracture and concussion.

They were a whopping 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on vs off in the regular season and were a +7.5 in their first round series against the Raptors. Most fans, analysts and bettors share the sentiment that the 76ers are done, but I’m not sure that’s the case.

The Heat are dealing with injuries of their own: They’ll miss Kyle Lowry with a hamstring strain with six other Heat players — Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Caleb Martin, Max Strus and Tyler Herr — are listed as questionable. I expect everyone except Lowry to play and none of these injuries match the hole the Embiid’s absence creates for Philly. I believe the market may have overcorrected here making the Heat 8-point favorites.

Much of this handicap lies in the assumption that there will be rational coaching (tough to imagine when Glenn Rivers is the head coach), however, the 76ers have some advantages that could help them compete and potentially win Game 1.

Most notably the 76ers have the ability to go small and place four shooters around James Harden and simply try to outscore the Heat. The Heat rank last in the frequency of opposing 3-point field goal attempts (41.9%). While the Hawks shot just (32.6%) from behind the arc in Round 1, a unit with Harden plus Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Georges Niang could make this Heat defense pay.

We’ve seen drastic improvements in volume and 3-point shooting percentage from Maxey, Harris, Green and Niang since the Harden trade and that will loom large here. In particular Harris and Maxey have increased their scoring output without Embiid as well, so I think this team can still score efficiently.

While I have concerns about the 76ers’ ability to slow the Heat down offensively, I think they can score enough to make this a close game. I’ll play the 76ers +8 in addition to Tobias Harris over 17.5 points.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

This is a really tough matchup, but I think the Mavericks have a real shot at winning this series given their ability to consistently hit 3-pointers and create a math problem for the Suns who thrive in the mid-range. The Mavericks attempted the highest percentage of 3-pointers first round while shooting 37.1% on those shots.

The Suns have been an elite team all season, but they don't have another gear. They're a perimeter based team and don't feature DeAndre Ayton nearly as much as they should. The Suns take the highest frequency of mid-range shots and also convert at the highest rate (48.1%), and will face a Mavericks team that ranks 25th in opponent mid-range frequency (33.2%).

Overall, I expect the Mavericks' 3-point advantage to loom large and I think you have to give them the edge offensively with Devin Booker just one game removed from his hamstring strain.

While Doncic will likely see a steady diet of Mikal Bridges defending him, we're likely to see him hunt for switches looking to attack Chris Paul, Devin Booker or DeAndre Ayton. Dating back to last season, we haven't seen much evidence that the Suns can slow Doncic down as he averaged 28.7 points, seven rebounds and 6.7 assists in three games against the Suns last season.

The Mavericks are actually one of the better road teams, going 25-17 against the spread, while the Suns were just 19-22 ATS at home, which shows us that the Suns have been overvalued at home this season. My model agrees, making the Suns closer to the PK than the 5.5 we see in the market.

While the Mavericks did lose to the Suns three times this season, Luka Doncic played in just one of those games and the Mavericks held an 89-80 fourth quarter lead before collapsing in game where they were playing their third contest in four nights.

I'll take the Mavericks +5.5 and sprinkle something on the ML.