While the Knicks have been awaiting their second-round opponent since Thursday night, they got some clarity when the 76ers defeated the Celtics last night. Two more Game 7s are on the docket today in the Eastern Conference as the Magic take on the Pistons and the Cavaliers host the Raptors.
Cade Cunningham will look to help the Pistons repeat history with another 3-1 comeback against the Magic. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell will look to lead the Cavaliers to the second round for a third straight year despite Scottie Barnes' best efforts.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Sunday, May 3.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide: Sunday, May 3
  |   |
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Magic vs. Pistons
The Angle: Cunningham Leads Pistons to Low-Scoring Win
Cade Cunningham 25+ Points and Under 9.5 Assists
The Pistons improbably lived to see another day as they rallied from a 24-point deficit to pull off a 93-79 victory on Friday night. After scoring just eight points in the first half, Cunningham scored 19 of his 32 points in the fourth quarter. In the process, he matched the Magic's output as a team in the second half.
Cunningham has now scored 25 points in all six games in the series. He is averaging 32.5 points per game in the series and has scored 45 and 32 points in the last two games. Neither of those games had Franz Wagner, Orlando's best defender for Cunningham, and he is out for Game 7 as well. Cunningham's points will be needed once again, but that may also cap his assists.
As I mentioned for Game 6, Cunningham would prefer to pass, but his teammates have not been making enough shots. He has scored 32% of the Pistons' points in this series, up from 20% in the regular season. In Game 6, he converted three of his 11 potential assist chances and is now averaging 6.3 assists and 16.2 potential assists in the series.
Action PRO projects him for 36 PA today.
One reason that his assists have dried up is the job Orlando's defense has done on Jalen Duren, who is averaging just 9.8 points per game in the series. Orlando allowed the third-fewest points per game to centers in the regular season, so this has not been an easy matchup for him. As a result, Cunningham has had 10 assists in just one of the six games in this series and has had six assists or fewer in four of them.
Pick: Cade Cunningham 25+ Points and Under 9.5 Assists
The Contrarian SGP: Pistons Spread, Cunningham Assists Under
Pistons -6.5
While I generally try to stay away from the Pistons and large spreads, Game 7 is an exception. Orlando has now had two opportunities to close the series.
While the Pistons were expected to win at home, Orlando returned home and had a 22-point lead at halftime. They proceeded to have a historic collapse, missing 23 consecutive shots and scoring 19 points in the second half.
When you combine that with Wagner being out, you have to wonder where the team is mentally. Additionally, all three of the Pistons' wins in this series have been by seven points or more, as well as the two regular-season victories.
By teasing down the spread a little, we still get decent odds here because of the correlation with other legs in the parlay.
Pick: Pistons -6.5
Under 208.5
In Game 7s, teams are usually tight, which makes sense because their seasons are on the line. That generally translates to low-scoring games, which is right up the alley for both of these teams.
In this series, the Pistons are averaging 100.2 points per game while shooting 42.7% from the field, while the Magic are averaging 98.3 points and are shooting 39.5% from the field.
Four of the first six games in this series have landed under the total, and all four games had fewer than 208.5 points.
The books tend to crash the totals in Game 7s, particularly in a series like this one with defensive-minded teams. However, the negative correlation with Cunningham's points allows us to buy a few points. However, if a repeat of Game 6 occurs, it will not be necessary.
Pick: Under 208.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+357)
- Cade Cunningham 25+ Points
- Cade Cunningham Under 9.5 Assists
- Detroit Pistons -6.5
- Under 208.5
Compounding Angle (+1404)
- Cade Cunningham 30+ Points
- Cade Cunningham Under 7.5 Assists
- Detroit Pistons -11.5
- Under 202.5
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Raptors vs. Cavaliers
The Angle: Mitchell Leads Cavs to Victory Despite Harden's Struggles
Donovan Mitchell 25+Points
Mitchell scored 30 points in each of the first two games in this series. After that, he has been a bit quiet by his standards, but he is still averaging 23.3 points per game in the series.
Mitchell played 41 minutes in Game 6, his first over 40 minutes in the series. While tonight's game may not go to overtime, he may cross the 40-minute plateau again.
If so, that may translate to a breakout scoring game as Mitchell has maintained a 31.1% usage rate in the series. In his lone Game 7 as a Cavalier, he scored 39 points in 45 minutes.
Action PRO projects Mitchell for 25 points today.
Seeing as his points start around 25 tonight, Mitchell's ladder has a ton of value if he approaches 40 points once again.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
James Harden Under 20.5 Points
As is typically the case with Harden in the playoffs, he began this series well before tapering off. He scored 50 points in the first two games of this series.
However, he has failed to crack 20 points in three of the last four games.
His usage rate has decreased in each of the last four games as well, despite being the one who runs Cleveland's offense.
Then there's Harden's complicated history in Game 7s. He has averaged 19.3 points per game in seven career Game 7s with 35/22/83 shooting splits. He has been held under 20 points in four of those games while scoring 9 and 7 points in his last two Game 7s.
This will be the sixth different team he has played in a Game 7 for. His teams may be different, but Harden struggling when his team needs him the most is one thing that has not changed over the years.
If that continues, Mitchell will have to take on more of the scoring burden.
Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: Harden Under, Barnes Over, Cavaliers Moneyline
Scottie Barnes Over 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Barnes led the Raptors back to the playoffs for the first time since his rookie season. His impact has seemed to increase with each game in this series. He is averaging 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, and nine assists per game in the series. He has recorded at least 35 points, rebounds, and assists in each of the last five games in the series.
Barnes has had 10 assists or more in three of his last four games. While those assists may turn into more rebounds in Game 7, they will still count towards this combo. Barnes has also scored 20 points in five of the six games in this series, and his physicality has helped him score on the interior.
Action PRO projects him for 34.4 PRA tonight.
If Barnes scores 20 points, I like his chances of recording 15 RA to reach this line. Additionally, he has recorded 49 and 46 PRA in two games in this series.
Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Cavaliers Moneyline
The Raptors had Brandon Ingram available for just 11 minutes in Game 5 and he did not play at all in Game 6. While getting their leading scorer back for a Game 7 may seem like a big deal, the Raptors have been better without Ingram this season and it has been exacerbated in this series.
In 145 minutes, the Raptors have a +4.6 net rating without Ingram and a -6.1 net rating with him on the floor for 148 minutes.
Regardless of Ingram's status, the Cavaliers are the more experienced team and perhaps most importantly, they will be at home. The home team has won every game in this series.
Additionally, the Cavaliers were in this situation two years ago, needing a Game 7 home victory to get past the Magic in a No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed matchup. Mitchell led the way and I look for him to do it once again.
Pick: Cavaliers Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+454)
- Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
- James Harden Under 20.5 Points
- Scottie Barnes Over 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1101)
- Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points
- James Harden Under 20.5 Points
- Scottie Barnes Over 39.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline
