NBA Playoff Trends: Numbers Say It’s Either Blowout or Upset
Gary Dineen/Getty. Pictured: Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent.
When it comes to the NBA Playoffs, can you forget the points with underdogs? The numbers indicate that may be the case, and you can even go a step further for a trend that applies to the favorites as well.
Ultimately over the past few years, the reality of the NBA Playoffs has been that when favorites win, they cover the spread. When underdogs cover, they win the game outright.
Over the past three season, NBA favorites covering the spread when winning, combined with underdogs winning outright when covering, have gone 171-13. Only 13 times has an underdog covered but failed to win.
This year, that trend is 13-0. When favorites have won, they've covered the spread. When underdogs have covered, you didn't need any points.
| Game | Spread | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Nets vs 76ers – Game 1 | 76ers -8.5 | 76ers 121-101 |
| Hawks vs Celtics – Game 1 | Celtics -9.5 | Celtics 112-99 |
| Knicks vs Cavaliers – Game 1 | Cavaliers -5.5 | Knicks 101-97 |
| Warriors vs Kings – Game 1 | Kings -1 | Kings 126-123 |
| Lakers vs Grizzlies – Game 1 | Grizzlies -5.5 | Lakers 128-112 |
| Heat vs Bucks – Game 1 | Bucks -9 | Heat 130-117 |
| Clippers vs Suns – Game 1 | Suns -6.5 | Clippers 115-110 |
| Timberwolves vs Nuggets – Game 1 | Nuggets -7.5 | Nuggets 109-80 |
| Nets vs 76ers – Game 2 | 76ers -10.5 | 76ers 96-84 |
| Warriors vs Kings – Game 2 | Warriors -2.5 | Kings 114-106 |
| Hawks vs Celtics – Game 2 | Celtics -10 | Celtics 119-106 |
| Knicks vs Cavaliers – Game 2 | Cavaliers -5 | Cavaliers 107-90 |
| Clippers vs Suns – Game 2 | Suns -6 | Suns 123-109 |
The last time that a team won a playoff game but didn't cover was when the Warriors (-9.5) beat the Grizzlies in 101-98 on May 9 in last year's playoffs.
Of course, there's nothing that is stopping this trend from reversing. Favorites could go on a run of tight wins, but 184 is a significant volume of games to the point where it is fair to at least note this observation.
Savvy NBA bettors that have picked up on this could have profited in a big way over the past few postseasons.
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