NBA Playoff Trends: Numbers Say It’s Either Blowout or Upset

NBA Playoff Trends: Numbers Say It’s Either Blowout or Upset article feature image
Credit:

Gary Dineen/Getty. Pictured: Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent.

When it comes to the NBA Playoffs, can you forget the points with underdogs? The numbers indicate that may be the case, and you can even go a step further for a trend that applies to the favorites as well.

Ultimately over the past few years, the reality of the NBA Playoffs has been that when favorites win, they cover the spread. When underdogs cover, they win the game outright.

Over the past three season, NBA favorites covering the spread when winning, combined with underdogs winning outright when covering, have gone 171-13. Only 13 times has an underdog covered but failed to win.

This year, that trend is 13-0. When favorites have won, they've covered the spread. When underdogs have covered, you didn't need any points.

GameSpreadOutcome
Nets vs 76ers – Game 176ers -8.576ers 121-101
Hawks vs Celtics – Game 1Celtics -9.5Celtics 112-99
Knicks vs Cavaliers – Game 1Cavaliers -5.5Knicks 101-97
Warriors vs Kings – Game 1Kings -1Kings 126-123
Lakers vs Grizzlies – Game 1Grizzlies -5.5Lakers 128-112
Heat vs Bucks – Game 1Bucks -9Heat 130-117
Clippers vs Suns – Game 1Suns -6.5Clippers 115-110
Timberwolves vs Nuggets – Game 1Nuggets -7.5Nuggets 109-80
Nets vs 76ers – Game 276ers -10.576ers 96-84
Warriors vs Kings – Game 2Warriors -2.5Kings 114-106
Hawks vs Celtics – Game 2Celtics -10Celtics 119-106
Knicks vs Cavaliers – Game 2Cavaliers -5Cavaliers 107-90
Clippers vs Suns – Game 2Suns -6Suns 123-109

The last time that a team won a playoff game but didn't cover was when the Warriors (-9.5) beat the Grizzlies in 101-98 on May 9 in last year's playoffs.

Of course, there's nothing that is stopping this trend from reversing. Favorites could go on a run of tight wins, but 184 is a significant volume of games to the point where it is fair to at least note this observation.

Savvy NBA bettors that have picked up on this could have profited in a big way over the past few postseasons.

The must-have app for NBA bettors

The best NBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
ESPN BET Promo Code ACTNEWS: Pocket a $1,000 First Bet Reset for Padres vs. Dodgers, or Any Game Friday ImageLegal Online Sports Betting

ESPN BET Promo Code ACTNEWS: Pocket a $1,000 First Bet Reset for Padres vs. Dodgers, or Any Game Friday

Doug Ziefel
Oct 11, 2024 UTC