2022 Final Four Odds Show All 68 Teams’ Chances to Reach Semifinals After Bracket Reveal
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: 2021 Final Four court logo in Indianapolis
Anyone who fills out an NCAA Tournament bracket cares about picking the winner, of course. But we tend to place value on nailing the Final Four.
If you can hit three of the four teams, you’ll be in good shape to win your pool in most years.
So, who has the best chance to reach the Final Four in 2022?
Gonzaga is an odds-on favorite to get to the national semifinals, with FanDuel and most other sportsbooks listing the Zags at around -135. They’re the only team at better than even money.
Next are Arizona, Baylor and Kansas, who are all better than +210 to reach the Final Four. Arizona won the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday night, while Baylor failed to win its conference tournament. Kansas beat Texas Tech yesterday to seal up their first Big 12 title since 2018.
The interesting thing is that Final Four odds are not a direct match with seeds. In the Midwest Region for example, No. 4 seed Providence has the 10th-best odds of the 17 teams to reach the Final Four. No. 5 seed Iowa has the third-best chance.
You’ll see lots of instances of that below, meaning those teams have tough draws or have been overseeded based on their true, forward-looking ability.
PointsBet has all the automatic qualifiers listed as well. Texas Southern, Bryant and Delaware are among the 11 teams at 250-1 to reach the Final Four.
Here are the Final Four odds for each team by region.
East Region Final Four Odds
Despite having the higher rating on KenPom — and arguably having an easier road to the Final Four — Kentucky have longer odds than Baylor to win this region. Curiously, Indiana have relatively short odds in spite of a terrible season — by their standards.
The Hoosiers also have to beat Wyoming in a play-in game. North Carolina, too, has a curiously short line despite their foibles this year.
|(5) Saint Mary’s||+2000|
|(8) North Carolina||+2500|
|(11) Virginia Tech||+2900|
|(10) San Francisco||+3200|
|(12, play-in) Indiana||+4500|
|(7) Murray State||+6000|
|(12, play-in) Wyoming||+18000|
|(15) Saint Peter’s||+25000|
|(16) Norfolk State||+25000|
Oddsmakers almost went chalk on this one, with the notable exception of Memphis, which has the seventh-shortest odds to win this region despite their low seed and potential meeting with Gonzaga in the second round.
|(3) Texas Tech||+600|
|(7) Michigan State||+4800|
|(8) Boise State||+6000|
|(12) New Mexico State||+13000|
|(11, play-in) Notre Dame||+18000|
|(16) Georgia State||+25000|
|(14) Montana State||+25000|
|(15) Cal State Fullerton||+25000|
Unsurprisingly, the Big 12 champion Kansas Jayhawks are the favorites to come out of the Midwest, but fifth seeded Iowa has the third-shortest odds at +390 after a surprise Big Ten Tournament title.
No. 4 seed Providence is all the way down at +3500, the 10th choice.
|Team||Final Four Odds|
|(8) San Diego State||+2300|
|(11) Iowa State||+6500|
|(13) South Dakota State||+12000|
|(15) Jacksonville State||+25000|
|(16) Texas Southern/Texas A&M-Corpus Christie||+25000/+25000|
South Region Odds
Arizona is a massive favorite to come out of this region, listed at +145, but 11 seed Michigan is just +1800 to come out of the South while sixth seed Colorado State is +8000. According to the oddsmakers, you can expect some parity after the one seed here.
Houston will look to reach its second consecutive Final Four. The Cougars are top 10 in most statistical rankings — even No. 2 in Bart Torvik’s model — but they face a tough draw as a No. 5 seed.
|Team||Final Four Odds|
|(7) Ohio State||+2500|
|(8) Seton Hall||+3600|
|(6) Colorado State||+8000|
|(16) Wright State/Bryant||+25000/+25000|
Full Final Four Odds
Odds via FanDuel, updated after bracket reveal on Selection Sunday.