March Madness Bracket Predictions: Every Team’s Chances To Advance To Final Four & NCAA Tournament Final

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Every Team’s Chances To Advance To Final Four & NCAA Tournament Final article feature image
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The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner projects every team’s chances to advance to each round of the NCAA Tournament.

Note: Round of 64 matchups featuring play-in winners from the First Four are listed twice to reflect the projections for each possible scenario.


March Madness Bracket Predictions

Sort the following table by team name, region, seed and more.

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South Region

#1 Baylor vs. #16 Hartford

Baylor Round Hartford
98.7% of 32 1.3%
70.8% Sweet 16 0.1%
53.1% Elite Eight 0%
37.6% Final Four 0%
22.5% Finals 0%
12.1% To Win 0%

#8 UNC vs. #9 Wisconsin

UNC Round Wisconsin
42.8% of 32 57.2%
11% Sweet 16 18.1%
5.6% Elite Eight 10.5%
2.5% Final Four 5.5%
0.9% Finals 2.3%
0.4% To Win 0.8%

#5 Villanova vs. #12 Winthrop

Villanova Round Winthrop
76.6% of 32 23.4%
33.5% Sweet 16 4.7%
8.8% Elite Eight 0.4%
3.5% Final Four 0.1%
1.1% Finals 0%
0.3% To Win 0%

#4 Purdue vs. #13 North Texas

Purdue Round North Texas
83% of 32 17%
56.3% Sweet 16 5.5%
21% Elite Eight 0.6%
11% Final Four 0.1%
4.5% Finals 0%
1.6% To Win 0%

#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Utah State

Texas Tech Round Utah State
60.7% of 32 39.3%
28.8% Sweet 16 14.6%
12.3% Elite Eight 4.8%
4.1% Final Four 1.2%
1.4% Finals 0.3%
0.4% To Win 0.1%

#3 Arkansas vs. #14 Colgate

Arkansas Round Colgate
80.6% of 32 19.4%
50.8% Sweet 16 5.8%
26.2% Elite Eight 1.2%
10.9% Final Four 0.2%
4.5% Finals 0%
1.6% To Win 0%

#7 Florida vs. #10 VA Tech

Florida Round VA Tech
57.2% of 32 42.8%
20.2% Sweet 16 12.5%
9.1% Elite Eight 4.7%
2.8% Final Four 1.2%
0.8% Finals 0.3%
0.2% To Win 0.1%

#2 Ohio State vs. #15 Oral Roberts

Ohio State Round Oral Roberts
94.9% of 32 5.1%
66.6% Sweet 16 0.7%
41.5% Elite Eight 0.1%
19.4% Final Four 0%
9% Finals 0%
3.6% To Win 0%

East Region

#1 Illinois vs. #16 Drexel

Illinois Round Drexel
98% of 32 2%
77.6% Sweet 16 0.2%
62.2% Elite Eight 0%
43.4% Final Four 0%
27.9% Finals 0%
15.5% To Win 0%

#8 Loyola (IL) vs. #9 GA Tech

Loyola (IL) Round GA Tech
53.6% of 32 46.4%
12.5% Sweet 16 9.6%
6.8% Elite Eight 4.9%
2.8% Final Four 1.8%
1% Finals 0.6%
0.3% To Win 0.1%

#5 Tennessee vs. #12 Oregon St

Tennessee Round Oregon St
76.6% of 32 23.4%
49.5% Sweet 16 8.7%
15.7% Elite Eight 1.1%
7% Final Four 0.2%
2.7% Finals 0%
0.8% To Win 0%

#4 OK State vs. #13 Liberty

OK State Round Liberty
76.6% of 32 23.4%
36.5% Sweet 16 5.3%
8.9% Elite Eight 0.5%
3.2% Final Four 0.1%
1% Finals 0%
0.2% To Win 0%
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#6 San Diego State vs. #11 Syracuse

San Diego State Round Syracuse
60.7% of 32 39.3%
32.8% Sweet 16 17.2%
13% Elite Eight 5.1%
4.5% Final Four 1.3%
1.7% Finals 0.4%
0.5% To Win 0.1%

#3 West Virginia vs. #14 Morehead St

West Virginia Round Morehead St
89.8% of 32 10.2%
48.7% Sweet 16 1.3%
19.2% Elite Eight 0.1%
6.7% Final Four 0%
2.5% Finals 0%
0.7% To Win 0%

#7 Clemson vs. #10 Rutgers

Clemson Round Rutgers
42.8% of 32 57.2%
10.8% Sweet 16 17.8%
4.5% Elite Eight 8.7%
1.2% Final Four 2.7%
0.3% Finals 0.9%
0.1% To Win 0.2%

#2 Houston vs. #15 Cleveland St

Houston Round Cleveland St
96.9% of 32 3.1%
71% Sweet 16 0.3%
49.3% Elite Eight 0%
25.1% Final Four 0%
13.6% Finals 0%
6.1% To Win 0%

Midwest Region

#1 Michigan vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s

Michigan Round Mount St. Mary’s
99.1% of 32 0.9%
75.2% Sweet 16 0%
54.7% Elite Eight 0%
38.6% Final Four 0%
19.4% Finals 0%
11% To Win 0%

#1 Michigan vs. #16 Texas Southern

Michigan Round Texas Southern
99.3% of 32 0.7%
75.4% Sweet 16 0%
54.8% Elite Eight 0%
38.7% Final Four 0%
19.4% Finals 0%
11% To Win 0%

#8 LSU vs. #9 St. Bonaventure

LSU Round St. Bonaventure
51.8% of 32 48.2%
13.2% Sweet 16 11.6%
6.3% Elite Eight 5.3%
2.8% Final Four 2.3%
0.7% Finals 0.6%
0.2% To Win 0.2%

#5 Colorado vs. #12 Georgetown

Colorado Round Georgetown
70.7% of 32 29.3%
36.5% Sweet 16 9.3%
12.5% Elite Eight 1.7%
6.1% Final Four 0.5%
1.8% Finals 0.1%
0.6% To Win 0%

#4 Florida St vs. #13 UNC Greensboro

Florida St Round UNC Greensboro
86.2% of 32 13.8%
51.3% Sweet 16 2.9%
19.3% Elite Eight 0.3%
10% Final Four 0%
3.2% Finals 0%
1.2% To Win 0%

#6 BYU vs. #11 UCLA

BYU Round UCLA
57.2% of 32 42.8%
26.9% Sweet 16 17.3%
10.4% Elite Eight 5.5%
3.3% Final Four 1.4%
0.8% Finals 0.3%
0.2% To Win 0.1%

#6 BYU vs. #11 Michigan St

BYU Round Michigan St
59% of 32 41%
27.8% Sweet 16 15.9%
10.7% Elite Eight 4.8%
3.4% Final Four 1.2%
0.8% Finals 0.2%
0.2% To Win 0%

#3 Texas vs. #14 Ab Christian

Texas Round Ab Christian
83% of 32 17%
51.4% Sweet 16 4.4%
24.4% Elite Eight 0.7%
9.7% Final Four 0.1%
3% Finals 0%
1.1% To Win 0%

#7 UConn vs. #10 Maryland

UConn Round Maryland
53.6% of 32 46.4%
23.3% Sweet 16 18.6%
12.8% Elite Eight 9.5%
4.9% Final Four 3.3%
1.4% Finals 0.9%
0.5% To Win 0.3%

#2 Alabama vs. #15 Iona

Alabama Round Iona
95.4% of 32 4.6%
57.8% Sweet 16 0.4%
36.7% Elite Eight 0%
17.1% Final Four 0%
6.3% Finals 0%
2.7% To Win 0%

West Region

#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 App State/Norfolk State

Gonzaga Round App State/Norfolk State
99.6% of 32 0.4%
88% Sweet 16 0%
72% Elite Eight 0%
51.4% Final Four 0%
37% Finals 0%
24.7% To Win 0%

#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Norfolk State

Gonzaga Round Norfolk State
99.6% of 32 0.4%
88.1% Sweet 16 0%
72% Elite Eight 0%
51.5% Final Four 0%
37% Finals 0%
24.7% To Win 0%

#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Missouri

Oklahoma Round Missouri
55.4% of 32 44.6%
7.3% Sweet 16 4.7%
3.1% Elite Eight 1.7%
0.9% Final Four 0.5%
0.3% Finals 0.1%
0.1% To Win 0%

#5 Creighton vs. #12 UCSB

Creighton Round UCSB
78% of 32 22%
45.1% Sweet 16 6.5%
11.7% Elite Eight 0.6%
4.9% Final Four 0.1%
2% Finals 0%
0.7% To Win 0%

#4 Virginia vs. #13 Ohio

Virginia Round Ohio
78% of 32 22%
42.5% Sweet 16 5.9%
10.4% Elite Eight 0.5%
4.2% Final Four 0.1%
1.7% Finals 0%
0.6% To Win 0%

#6 USC vs. #11 Wichita State

USC Round Wichita State
70.7% of 32 29.3%
34.8% Sweet 16 8.7%
11.7% Elite Eight 1.5%
3% Final Four 0.2%
1.1% Finals 0%
0.4% To Win 0%

#6 USC vs. #11 Drake

USC Round Drake
73.8% of 32 26.2%
36.3% Sweet 16 7.1%
12.2% Elite Eight 1.1%
3.2% Final Four 0.1%
1.2% Finals 0%
0.4% To Win 0%

#3 Kansas vs. #14 Eastern Wash

Kansas Round Eastern Wash
89% of 32 11%
54.5% Sweet 16 2%
20.9% Elite Eight 0.2%
6.3% Final Four 0%
2.6% Finals 0%
1% To Win 0%

#7 Oregon vs. #10 VCU

Oregon Round VCU
62.5% of 32 37.5%
17.1% Sweet 16 6.9%
8.2% Elite Eight 2.5%
2% Final Four 0.4%
0.7% Finals 0.1%
0.2% To Win 0%

#2 Iowa vs. #15 Grand Canyon

Iowa Round Grand Canyon
95.8% of 32 4.2%
75.3% Sweet 16 0.8%
54.9% Elite Eight 0.1%
26% Final Four 0%
15.8% Finals 0%
8.7% To Win 0%

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