Let's close out the college football regular-season with a bang.
We have two picks for the Iron Bowl, a pick for the two-team Pac-12 showdown, a pick for Northwestern-Illinois, and an extra team total prop for the South Florida Bulls.
Thank you all for coming along for the ride this season, and read on for our College Football Best Bets and Saturday Night picks for November 28.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alabama vs. Auburn Total Pick
There's no expectation that either rushing attack will produce against the opposing defense.
Alabama has struggled to generate any success on the ground and should find little traction against Auburn's front.
Meanwhile, the Tide have dominated opposing rushing attacks, but the insertion of Deuce Knight into the Auburn offense should be a significant issue for the Crimson Tide.
Mobile quarterbacks have destroyed Alabama’s defense this season. South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Missouri's Beau Pribula and Florida State's Tommy Castellanos have all run for a score against the Tide.
The good news for Alabama is that only 33 of Knight’s rushing yards last week came on three designed attempts. If the Crimson Tide can contain him in the pocket, there won't be many options for the Auburn offense.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings pin this game at Alabama -6, giving no value to the current market offerings.
However, the change at quarterback for Auburn will generate explosive scrambles against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide rank 127th in opponent rush explosives, a significant concern against Knight’s dual-threat ability.
On the other side of the ball, expect Simpson to attack through the air after the Tide found limited success on the ground.
Auburn’s leaky secondary ranks 85th in creating a contested catch, an issue that will arise with Ty Simpson’s accuracy.
Look for both offenses to get into scoring position often, as the projected total for this game is 52 points.
Read Collin's full Iron Bowl breakdown and more in his Week 14 column:
Pick: Over 46.5 or Better
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Alabama vs. Auburn Spread Pick
By Stuckey
Weird things happen at Jordan Hare, especially at night, where the Iron Bowl will be played at Auburn in primetime for the first time since 2007.
If you like crazy college football atmospheres, this is as good as home-field advantage gets for what is essentially a playoff game for Alabama, which has undoubtedly had its road woes in recent seasons.
In fact, since 2021, the Tide are just 5-13 (27.8%) ATS in true road games, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game.
Alabama deserves a ton of credit for an impressive turnaround following an opening week loss at Florida State, but it has escaped quite a few games that could've gone either way (Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina).
In fairness, they did statistically dominate Oklahoma, but that doesn't change the fact that the Tide could easily have three or four losses this season.
Conversely, Auburn has been snakebit all season. Just take a look at some of these losses:
- 24-17 at Oklahoma
- 16-10 at Texas A&M
- 20-10 vs. Georgia
- 23-17 vs. Missouri in double OT (missed several kicks)
- 10-3 vs. Kentucky
- 45-38 at Vanderbilt in OT
If not for a late, unnecessary Stockton touchdown run, Auburn would have six losses all by one possession, with four of those six coming against teams still in the College Football Playoff discussion.
I could also go into a long rant about how the refs have cost them several games, too. The Georgia game was the most egregious, as the Tigers should have been up 17-0 before every single call went against them for about 20 minutes straight, which eventually led to the suspension of the head referee.
They were also royally screwed several times in the close road loss at Oklahoma and didn't get a favorable late whistle for Missouri.
Maybe that happens again here. I can't say it hasn't crossed my mind, given that Alabama needs to win to get into the College Football Playoff, but I can't let that prevent me from making a bet.
Auburn doesn't get blown out by anybody.
The Tigers have been in every single game until the bitter end, even with incompetent quarterback play from Jackson Arnold for most of the season across one of the most challenging schedules in the nation.
How have they managed to do so? It all starts with the defense, which is arguably one of the nation's top-five units.
Alabama, which already struggles to run the ball, won't get anything on the ground in this matchup. That will leave it all on the shoulders of Ty Simpson and the passing attack. It's worth mentioning that he will be without tight end Josh Cuevas, which isn't insignificant.
You do want to attack Auburn through the air, but being completely one-dimensional on offense in this hostile an environment against a terrific pass rush (top-25 in pressure rate) is asking for trouble, especially considering the Tide rank outside the top-100 nationally in Sack EPA allowed.
However, it's on the other side of the ball where Auburn might be a bit undervalued, with an offense trending up following the departure of Hugh Freeze.
Since he was let go, Auburn has made several changes that have paid immediate dividends. The Tigers have started using more tempo and are getting the ball into space more quickly to their outstanding wide receiver corps.
Most importantly, they now only have one play caller.
The quarterback play has also improved since moving on from Arnold. Ashton Daniels (who threw for 353 in his most recent start against Vanderbilt) should get the start, but I'd expect to see some packages for Deuce Knight following his electrifying six-touchdown performance last week.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see some run packages for Arnold, especially given that Alabama remains vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
All that uncertainty at quarterback definitely makes this a much more difficult prep for Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack.
It's also worth noting that Auburn's offensive line has been trending up since moving Mason Murphy to center. The Tigers should be able to get the ground game going against the Tide, making life easier for whoever is under center.
Lastly, don't sleep on special teams. Alabama has been dreadful in that department (102nd, per SP+) with major kicking issues, while Auburn's Alex McPherson has righted the ship of late. Kick 6, anyone?
I'm expecting another classic in this series.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 14 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Auburn +6 or Better
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Northwestern vs. Illinois Pick
By Stuckey
I’ll keep this simple.
I make this closer to 10, and it’s a great buy-low, sell-high spot with the Illini coming off an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin (whose defense is playing at an incredible level at the moment).
At the same time, Northwestern just won thrillingly in the final seconds against Minnesota to clinch a bowl, which is a big deal for that team this year.
I expect the Illini to bounce back at home (where they’ve played much better all year) in primetime against a Wildcat team it can handle at the line of scrimmage, which should allow Luke Altmyer to move the ball through the air with relative ease.
I think we are getting Illinois at a discount here and could see the Wildcats coming out a bit flat.
Pick: Illinois -7 or Better
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Rice vs. USF Team Prop Pick
By Duck
I expect USF to take this game seriously and put on a show for its home fans in the season finale.
South Florida has scored 63, 54, 48, and 55 points in its past four home games and routinely puts the hammer down against inferior competition.
Alex Golesh is not afraid to punch in scores late in blowouts and run his offense with meaningful reps in the second half, even with the second-team unit on the field. They should not throttle down in this one and should have no issue moving the football.
Rice struggles badly defensively, giving up way too many explosive plays.
Without an effective pass rush to generate pressure, USF quarterback Byrum Brown should be able to hit big, explosive pass plays set up by the run game.
The Rice secondary is not good, allowing 469 passing yards last week on only 19 completions. The Owls have just three interceptions on the season and are allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
Rice is lining up against a USF defense that is equipped to stop what it wants to do offensively.
The Bulls rank 31st nationally in yards per rush allowed and 39th in defensive rushing success rate.
Rice struggles to sustain drives and convert on third down with any consistency.
USF ranks 42nd nationally in generating havoc, and I expect Rice to be behind the chains frequently, in situations they will not be able to throw their way out of.
The Owls will not out-possess or truncate the possession count in this game, giving USF more chances to have the ball and score.
Pick: USF TT Over 43.5
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Oregon State vs. Washington State Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Undervalued Road Dogs is a college football system that identifies situations in which teams receiving little market respect are more likely to cover the spread than expected.
These games occur in the regular season, when the spread is set between 7.5 and 21.5 points, suggesting the road team is considered a heavy underdog.
Often, these teams are on losing streaks away from home, which drives public perception even lower, but their Pythagorean rating indicates they are still performing competitively within a reasonable margin.
When the closing total is between 39.5 and 55.5, scoring is projected to be moderate, creating a better chance for the underdog to keep the game within the number.
With public betting often leaning toward the favorite in these spots, the road dog is overlooked, allowing the line to offer value.
This combination of perception, spread range, and statistical balance consistently highlights underdogs that cover more often than expected.
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Pick: Oregon State +13 or Better
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