Week 6 College Football Odds, Best Bets: Our Top Picks for Saturday Evening Kickoffs, Including Air Force vs. Wyoming
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- The college football action rolls on Saturday as the evening slate kicks off.
- Our staff broke down three games from this kickoff window, including East Carolina vs. UCF, UTSA vs. Western Kentucky, and Wyoming vs. Air Force.
- Check out all three picks below, along with complete breakdowns.
Oklahoma vs. Texas and Iowa vs. Penn State are obviously the biggest games of the day, but there’s always cash to be made no matter how high or low the level of play is.
In the early evening window, East Carolina takes on UCF in Orlando, Air Force hosts Wyoming in a Mountain West duel and Western Kentucky and UTSA face off in a possible high-scoring affair.
Our experts are all over all three of these matchups by offering up their best bets. Feel free to use the table below to successfully navigate to the game of your choice.
Saturday College Football Best Bets for Week 6
Our Top Picks for Saturday Evening
The set of college football team logos below reflects each of our college football staff’s best bets for games kicking off at 6 or 7 p.m. ET.
Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific pick discussed in this article.
Check Out More of Our Staff’s Best Bets for Week 6
Looking for more of our college football staff’s top picks for Week 6? Check out our best bets for each of Saturday’s three other kickoff windows:
East Carolina vs. UCF
Although UCF is without star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Gus Mahlzan still wants to play fast.
The Knights are 16th in the country in plays per minute and still have a dynamic offense that can torch East Carolina’s defense.
Last week against Navy, the Knights ran only 56 plays, as they allowed the triple option to eat up a lot of the clock.
They still averaged 5.40 yards per play and 5.1 yards per rush against Navy’s front seven, and they’ll likely be able to do the same against East Carolina.
The Knights’ rushing offense is first in Success Rate, third in Offensive Line Yards and fourth in Power Success Rate.
They’ll be going up against a Pirate front seven that has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, ranks 88th in Rushing Success Rate, sits 111th in rushing explosiveness allowed and is 103rd in terms of a run defense grade, per Pro Football Focus.
Additionally, East Carolina’s secondary is allowing 9.2 yards per attempt and ranks 67th in Passing Success Rate allowed, so UCF should be able to move the ball at will.
East Carolina is not that great of an offense from a Success Rate standpoint — ranking outside the top 100 — but boy, is the offense explosive.
The Pirates boast the sixth-most explosive offense overall and rank third in rushing explosiveness this season, which will give them a big advantage over UCF’s defense that ranks 85th in explosive plays allowed and 82nd in rushing explosiveness allowed.
East Carolina is also 50th in plays per minute, so the pace of this game is likely going to be very fast, especially if East Carolina falls behind early.
I have 78.67 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 66 points.
Pick: Over 66
UTSA vs. Western Kentucky
The Houston Baptist passing attack has recreated itself in Kentucky.
Pass-heavy offensive coordinator Zach Kittley joined Western Kentucky in the offseason and brought plenty of firepower with him. Quarterback Bailey Zappe joined him, along with three of his top targets.
This season, Zappe has been terrific, averaging over 420 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s completed 73% of his 183 passes while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. Zappe is on pace to exceed 5,000 yards passing if he continues this trend.
Wide receiver Jerreth Sterns is averaging 10 receptions per game and has logged 546 yards and five touchdowns. He was dominant against Michigan State, hauling in 17 passes.
UTSA is undefeated through five games and averaging 35 points per game. The offense is well-balanced between the legs of Sincere McCormick and the arm of Frank Harris.
The defense has been stout against the run but struggled against the pass. In its three games against FBS opponents, it’s allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt, ranking 96th in the nation.
These two teams have averaged over 950 yards of total offense per game and combined for 40 touchdowns.
The Roadrunners have stayed true to their team’s name, playing at one of the fastest paces in the country. They rank third in the nation, averaging 85 plays per game, and Western Kentucky isn’t too far behind at 74.
This matchup presents two of the top three scoring teams in Conference USA, and stops will be few and far between. I see this game being played in the 80s, and I am playing over 71.
Pick: Over 71
Wyoming vs. Air Force
Wyoming allowed an average of 297.6 rushing yards per game in three contests against Air Force prior to Craig Bohl taking the Cowboys’ head coaching position.
In six meetings versus the Falcons since, Bohl and Co. have limited the Service Academy to 221 per contest; that’s not a coincidence.
The potent triple-option attack has yet to rack up more than 300 yards on the ground against a Bohl-led unit, save for 2018 — a game in which Wyoming won by eight.
Investing in Wyoming’s defense as a road underdog has paid dividends of late. The unit’s held six of its last seven opponents under the team total when catching points away from home, allowing just an average of 22.3 points per game.
This is also a solid sell-high on Air Force’s offense, which has benefited from a breezy defensive schedule to date. Four of the five opponents the Falcons beat in 2021 rank 68th or worse in defensive SP+, while the other was against FCS Lafayette.