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Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks, Predictions | College Football Week 4 In-State Betting Guide

Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks, Predictions | College Football Week 4 In-State Betting Guide article feature image
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Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas running back Bijan Robinson.

Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7
-114
61.5
-108o / -112u
-275
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7
-106
61.5
-108o / -112u
+220
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

One of the cooler rivalry trophies in college football is on the line when Texas and Texas Tech meet in the Battle For The Chancellor’s Spurs to open this season’s Big 12 play for both programs.

These two teams combined for 1,159 yards and 105 points when they met last season, as the Longhorns won the matchup for the 11th time in the last 13 meetings.

Texas avoided an emotional letdown last week against UTSA, seven days removed from an agonizingly close, one-point loss to Alabama, while the Red Raiders dropped their first game of the season to No. 16 NC State.

Can the Longhorns cement their status as a Big 12 contender with a convincing win, or will Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders continue to outperform preseason projections in his first year on the job?


Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns’ 41-20 win over UTSA was important last week in that it stopped a potential losing snowball that started rolling with that crushing loss to the Tide.

Texas overcoming a double-digit deficit with its banged-up backup quarterback is a promising sign for the Horns going forward as Steve Sarkisian’s team has proved it can handle adversity.

The big discussion in Austin this week surrounds the status of quarterback Quinn Ewers, who was injured against Alabama and was expected to miss at least a month. The freshman quarterback, however, returned to practice on Monday and will travel and suit up against Texas Tech.

Hudson Card was fine last week, completing 15-of-23 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown, but Ewers better provides the explosive playmaking that has defined the matchups with Texas Tech over the years.

No matter who starts under center, the Longhorns boast one of the best running backs in the country in Bijan Robinson. He is averaging 103 yards a game and already has five rushing touchdowns on the season.

Slowing the Red Raiders’ passing game will be key for Texas. The Longhorns limited Heisman candidate Bryce Young to just 213 yards passing, but they rank 97th in Pass Success Rate on defense.

One area the Longhorns must improve is guarding big pass plays. No team has more passing plays for double-digit yardage than the Red Raiders, while the Texas defense has allowed the 77th-most.


Texas Tech Red Raiders

Picked to finish ninth in the Big 12 by conference media, Texas Tech looks like it could exceed those expectations following its 2-1 start.

As has usually been the case, Texas Tech leads the way with its passing offense that ranks fourth in the country (374.0 yards per game) despite losing starting quarterback Tyler Shough in Week 1.

Donovan Smith has stepped up admirably in Shough’s absence, completing 71 of 110 passes for 786 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith’s offensive line, however, will need a better performance than it had last week against NC State when it allowed four sacks, and the team only rushed for 53 yards.

The Red Raiders defense has made massive improvements from last year’s unit that allowed north of 400 yards per game (87th). Tech ranks in the top 10 in the nation in both Line Yards and Pass Success Rate on defense and is only allowing 294 yards per game.


Texas vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 80 17
Line Yards 65 10
Pass Success 76 9
Pass Blocking** 27 20
Havoc 64 38
Finishing Drives 51 31
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 39 4
Line Yards 91 55
Pass Success 66 97
Pass Blocking** 59 30
Havoc 112 93
Finishing Drives 90 20
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 51 7
PFF Coverage 49 87
SP+ Special Teams 61 95
Seconds per Play 25.7 (52) 21.8 (10)
Rush Rate 53.3% (69) 41.8% (122)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

When the odds for this game opened, I was all over Texas -5, but now that we’re closer to a full touchdown, I’m less confident about the spread. Action Network projections make this closer to a five-point game.

The total, however, still catches my eye as having value. When these teams meet, it tends to be a high-scoring affair.

This rivalry has produced at least 73 points in six of the last seven meetings, including an average of 112 points in the last two. Here’s the thing though: Those scores have no bearing on how this game will play out.

Smith has put up big numbers for Texas Tech, but the majority of his stats came against really bad defenses in Murray State and Houston. The Red Raiders scored just 14 points against the only quality defense they’ve played, and Smith has thrown five interceptions in the last two games.

Then there’s the obvious Texas quarterback situation. Even if Ewers does start, he’s likely not 100 percent. I expect a heavier dose of Robinson this game, which will roll the clock and lower the scoring.

The total opened at 58.5, and the public has hammered the over after seeing the Ewers news and looking back at historical scores. Let people continue to steam this total higher, and back the under at 61 or better.

Pick: Under 61 or Better

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