College Football Odds, Picks for Week 10: Our 4 Best Bets for Saturday Night, Including Michigan vs. Indiana and Nevada vs. San Jose State
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan Stadium, home of the Michigan Wolverines football team.
- Week 10 has come, but it's not gone yet.
- We have four more best bets for the Saturday night slate, including Indiana vs. Michigan and San Jose State vs. Nevada.
Another college football Saturday has come and gone. Now, grab a nightcap and relax, because it's time for another college football Saturday night.
Our staff's favorite action tonight starts in Boca Raton for a matchup between Marshall and Florida Atlantic that one of our senior writers loves. In the 90 minutes following, we also have picks for Oregon State vs. Colorado in the Pac-12 and Michigan vs. Indiana in the Big Ten.
Then, when all of that's over, get ready for some West Coast action. Our slate ends with San Jose State vs. Nevada in a Mountain West showdown in Reno.
Be sure to check out all of our favorite bets for the late-night slate below. And if you're here early, take a peek at our top bets for the noon and afternoon kickoff windows.
Week 10 College Football Best Bets
Our Staff's Top Picks for Saturday Night
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting for games kicking off at 6 p.m. ET or later. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Saturday, Nov. 6 6 p.m. ET Facebook |
Over 57.5  |
The Thundering Herd and Owls agree that tempo is the way to run an offense.
Marshall head coach Charles Huff has engineered an offense that ranks fifth in plays per minute while providing quarterback Grant Wells one of the best protection rates in all of college football.
The Florida Atlantic defense ranks outside the top 100 in pass rush, per PFF. Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football with a clean pocket, but the Herd’s success in early downs will keep the chains moving. Marshall is eighth in standard downs Success Rate. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities for the visitor.
Florida Atlantic is no stranger to tempo, owning a rank of 31st in plays per minute while it averaged less than 21 seconds per play in Week 9 against UTEP.
The Owls tend to run more than pass, but a top-40 Success Rate on the ground and through the air sets up the explosive play. While the Marshall offense is one of the best in the country at moving the chains with tempo, Florida Atlantic is top-20 in standard downs explosiveness.
Look for a high tempo with an Action Network total projection at 60.5. One of the biggest key numbers for college football totals is 59, giving this number value through 58.5.
Pick: Over 57.5
Oregon State vs. Colorado
Saturday, Nov. 6 7 p.m. ET Pac-12 Network |
Oregon State -10.5  |
Oregon State’s running game has been elite this season, ranking second nationally in Line Yards and fourth in Rush Success rate.
Not only have the Beavers consistently gotten ahead of the chains by running the ball, but the ground game has helped them convert successful drives into points, which is clear based on their No. 2 ranking in Finishing Drives. Oregon State also ranks 24th in Big Plays on the ground, which has helped prevent negative plays with a No.15 Havoc rating.
The Beavers should be chomping at the bit to run the football against a Colorado defense that ranks outside of the top 95 nationally in Line Yards, Rush Success rate allowed, Big Plays, Havoc and Finishing Drives.
The Oregon State offense will be plenty motivated and focused to bounce back after last week’s loss as a road favorite against Cal, and it will face a huge step down in competition from the Golden Bears’ defense to Colorado’s. The Beavers should run for more than five yards per carry and put up four or more touchdowns.
Colorado, however, won’t have as much success offensively. The Buffs will try to run the ball as they have all year, but they will struggle to do so against a stacked box since the Beavers don’t have to respect their passing game.
Colorado has no strength on offense, only bigger weaknesses. It isn’t good at running the football but has played conservatively by keeping it on the ground 63.2% of the time, which is the 12th-highest Rush Rate in the country, because it trusts freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis even less. Lewis has recorded a QBR below 46 (50 is average, for reference) in seven of eight games this season.
Outside of last week’s game against Oregon where they scored 15 points in garbage time and their game against Arizona (where they got two non-offensive scores), the Buffaloes haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their three other Pac-12 games.
Expect the Beavers to handle them easily and win this game by two scores or more to keep their Pac-12 North hopes alive. I recommend betting one unit on Oregon State at -10.5 with value down to -12.
Pick: Oregon State -10.5
Indiana vs. Michigan
Saturday, Nov. 6 7:30 p.m. ET FOX |
Under 51.5  |
Not all hope is lost, my Michigan friends. Maybe some hope. A lot of hope. But not all hope.
Michigan still controls its own destiny for the Big Ten Championship if Michigan State drops two games, one that includes a matchup with Ohio State.
After a soul-crushing loss to MSU last weekend behind the back of a career game from potential Heisman winner Kenneth Walker III, Michigan will be looking to bounce back with a vengeance against a depleted Indiana squad.
Michigan is still a very good team. Yes, it’s November and this is when Harbough starts to choke, but I am not giving up on the Wolverines just yet. They still boast one of the best defensive units in the nation outside of Georgia.
Michigan currently ranks top-30 in all defensive metrics, boasting one of the best pass rushing units in football. Aidan Hutchinson and Co. will look to wreak havoc in the backfield as Indiana fields a below-average offensive line.
Always helpful for the under, Michigan still has one of the heaviest rushing rates in all of football. It relies on the production of one of the best running back duos of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins.
While Michigan is expected to pound the ball as usual, Indiana sneakily has a defensive line that can potentially slow it down. Ranking 23rd in Line Yards, the Hoosiers will need to push back and make stops in the backfield early and often if they want to avoid a blowout.
I’m expecting this to be one boring, clock-draining, run-heavy game. A beautiful recipe for an under. I grabbed this at 51.5 and would play this no less than 51.
Pick: Under 51.5
San Jose State vs. Nevada
Saturday, Nov. 6 10 p.m. ET FS2 |
Nevada -10.5  |
There’s a big gap between the two offenses in this matchup.
In terms of points per drive, Nevada comes in ranked 26th, with San Jose State all the way down at 110th. The Wolf Pack’s passing game has been the team’s bread and butter this season, with quarterback Carson Strong ranking 11th in PFF passing grade and tied for third in big-time throws.
San Jose State’s passing game has been on the opposite end of the spectrum, where it’s ranked 118th in expected points added (EPA) per attempt.
It’s gone to Nick Nash at quarterback after starter Nick Starkel was injured, and the throw-for-throw efficiency between the two has been similar, but Nash has provided more of a threat on the ground.
Neither quarterback has been aided by the surrounding parts, though, with San Jose State’s receiving corps ranked 123rd in PFF grade and the offensive line grading at 103rd in pass blocking.
Nevada has played very well against the pass this season and should absolutely be able to handle this weak San Jose State aerial attack. It’s ranked 23rd in yards allowed per attempt, with the pass rush ranking 13th in pressure rate.
Its defensive tackle tandem has been elite, with Tristan Nichols and Dom Peterson combining for 14.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss this season. Those two could cause a lot of problems for a San Jose State offensive line that has been very poor in pass protection, especially on the interior.
Overall, San Jose State could really struggle to keep pace here against an elite Nevada passing game.
Pick: Nevada -10.5
Check Out All of Our College Football Best Bets for Saturday, Nov. 6
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