Florida vs LSU Odds & Prediction: Bet the Over?

When Florida and LSU meet, things usually get weird.

Whether it’s someone throwing a shoe or the teams just trading blows, this matchup produces compelling results year after year. Eleven consecutive games in this rivalry have been decided by 14 or fewer points.

But both teams enter Saturday fresh off crippling losses.

LSU (6-3) not only had its SEC West aspirations crushed, but it watched its star quarterback Jayden Daniels go down in the process and enter concussion protocol through this week of practice.

Florida (5-4) managed to lose to an Arkansas team that hadn’t won a conference game all year and was preparing to fire its coach. Instead, it’s now Billy Napier whose seat is hotter than ever as the Gators find themselves in grave danger of missing a bowl with games remaining against LSU, Missouri and Florida State.

With both teams realizing their offseason goals are likely no longer attainable, which side is the better one to back?

Let's look at the Florida vs. LSU odds for Saturday, Nov. 11, and find a prediction.

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Florida’s season can best be described in a singular picture:

The Gators hit a new low point in Billy Napier’s tenure, falling in overtime to an Arkansas team that had lost six straight. The Razorbacks, who had just fired their offensive coordinator, recorded season highs in total offense (481) and points (39).

Following a decent start to the season, the Gators defense has fallen apart down the stretch. Florida has allowed over 450 yards in each of its last three games.

The Gators have struggled the most against the pass, particularly against explosive plays. Florida has allowed 14 pass plays of at least 40 yards, which is five more than any other team in the SEC and the second most in the country.

Florida’s offense, while not great, has largely been better than expected. Graham Mertz is fifth in the nation with a 73.9% completion percentage, and he’s thrown 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Florida’s 409.8 yards per game are fifth in the conference, and it’s scored at least 36 points in three of its last four games.

One area the Gators have struggled is the offensive line. Florida ranks 58th in Havoc Allowed and 11th in the SEC with 26 sacks allowed.

Whatever hopes LSU had of beating Alabama and sneaking into the SEC Championship Game vanished as the Crimson Tide’s Dallas Turner drove Daniels into the ground early in the fourth quarter.

Daniels ultimately missed most of the fourth quarter in concussion protocol, and coach Brian Kelly listed his star quarterback as day-to-day leading up to this game.

A healthy Daniels with this LSU offense is a sight to behold. The Tigers are third in the nation in scoring (45.3 points per game), first in total offense (544.6 yards per game) and third in passing offense (332.3 yards per game).

Daniels' 386.2 total yards of offense per game are more than 30 yards better than the next closest player, and his 27 passing touchdowns trail only Caleb Williams.

The LSU offense has thrived on explosive passing plays. The Tigers lead the country with 57 passing plays of at least 20 yards, thanks in large part to Malik Nabers’ 27 catches of such length — nine more than second place.

The offense obviously takes a step back if Daniels can’t go, but Garrett Nussmeier is better than your typical backup and was in a battle with Daniels over the offseason for the starting job. Nussmeier passed for 294 yards in last season’s SEC Championship Game against a prolific Georgia defense.

But it doesn’t matter how prolific your offense is when you have a defense as bad as LSU’s. The Tigers have allowed over 500 yards of offense in three of their last four SEC games and gave up an average of 45.3 points in those three games.

And despite a front seven of highly-touted prospects, the Tigers have only gotten to the quarterback for 16 sacks, which ranks last in the conference.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and LSU match up statistically:

Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	42	111
Line Yards	73	113
Pass Success	47	98
Havoc	77	70
Finishing Drives	16	125
Quality Drives	16	106

LSU Offense vs. Florida Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	1	11
Line Yards	1	57
Pass Success	6	88
Havoc	4	60
Finishing Drives	7	84
Quality Drives	1	72

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	89	48
PFF Coverage	84	93
Special Teams SP+	81	91
Middle 8	39	2
Seconds per Play	29.3 (107)	27.0 (70)
Rush Rate	48.7% (106)	52.7% (70)

The big question for this game is if Daniels will play, and if he does, how close to 100% will he be?

Regardless of who plays at quarterback for LSU, we know its defense is going to be business as usual, which is bad.

Florida's defense has looked uninspiring down the stretch, but the Gators have scored 36 or more in three of their last four games, and they scored three touchdowns on Georgia.

Daniels is obviously a huge piece of the LSU offense, but so too is LSU’s elite offensive line, Nabers, Brian Thomas and Logan Diggs. There’s more than enough talent for Nussmeier to succeed against this Florida defense that's been falling apart since October.

The total has gone over in every single LSU game this season, and 63 doesn’t feel all that high for two bad defenses. The Tigers offense may not be 100%, but these teams will clear this total under the lights of a charged-up Death Valley.

Pick: Over 63.5 (-110)

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