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The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Utah State Aggies in Logan, Utah, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on USA.
Fresno State entered Saturday as a -2.5 underdog, but that line has moved. Now, updated odds make Utah State a -1 favorite with a moneyline of -110. The over/unders sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. Utah State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Fresno State vs Utah State Prediction, Picks
- Fresno State vs. Utah State Pick: Utah State +2.5 (Play to +2)
My Utah State vs. Fresno State best bet is on Utah State to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Fresno State vs Utah State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -112 | 43.5 -110o / -108u | -108 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -108u | -110 |
- Fresno State vs Utah State point spread: Fresno State +1, Utah State -1
- Fresno State vs Utah State over/under: 43.5 Points
- Fresno State vs Utah State moneyline: Fresno State ML -108, Utah State ML -110
Fresno State vs Utah State Pick, Preview
We need to start talking about the Utah State defense. Is there a chance this ends up being the second-best G6 defense behind New Mexico? It's certainly possible.
Maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise that known defensive guru Bronco Mendenhall has completely turned around this Aggie defense since arriving in Logan, but what they've done over the past two weeks has been nothing short of incredible.
In back-to-back games, Utah State has completely shut down two of the most explosive G6 offenses in Colorado State and Texas State, holding both to under 20 points and 265 total yards of offense.
There are simply no holes on this defense at the moment, which could spell trouble for a limited Fresno State offense.
It's still a slog for the Utah State offense, but the Aggies definitely have more rushing and passing upside with McCae Hillstead now under center.
Hillstead's legs could be key against a Fresno defense that can be structurally susceptible to the quarterback run game. That's basically how Utah State beat the Bulldogs last season.
This is also a tough spot for Fresno State following an upset win over ATS machine Oregon State.
The defensive game plan from Nick Benedetto was brilliant, but the Bulldogs still allowed 450 total yards. They were certainly helped by three failed Beaver fourth-down attempts and a pair of turnovers.
Fresno's defense won't make life easy for Utah State's anemic offense in what should be a very low-scoring affair, but it can be had a bit on the ground, which is where the Aggies will focus most of their efforts with some occasional deep shots mixed in.
That's the exact formula required to move the ball on the Bulldogs, who will allow short, successful runs and the periodic explosive passing play.
And, ultimately, I actually trust the Utah State defense (that doesn't allow anything deep) more at the moment to get a few more critical stops.
You might not know it based on their respective records, but the Aggies actually have the superior net yards per play margin despite playing the more difficult schedule.
I just don't think the market has fully adjusted yet to how dominant the Utah State defense is playing at the moment, nor the higher upside of the offense with Hillstead back under center.
I'm waiting to see if a 3 pops in the market before locking this in, but I would be comfortable backing Bronco's bunch at the current price of +2.5.
Pick: Utah State +2.5 (Play to +2)
Fresno State vs Utah State Betting Trends to Know
