Week 10 College Football Odds & Picks: Our Top NCAAF Favorites, Including Texas & Alabama
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we got a fifth straight split after Miami (Ohio) cruised for me, but Georgia came up a half-point short for Collin against his nemesis.
For Week 10, we each rolled with a conference road favorite in the same time slot in prime time. Hopefully, we can all enjoy watching both get to the window side-by-side.
YTD: 10-8 +1.2 units
Wilson: Alabama -13.5
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -530 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
A key factor in this game is a storyline you'll probably hear about on LSU's first offensive possession: former Tiger cornerback Eli Ricks recently getting inserted into the starting lineup.
After dealing with injuries and trying to get up to speed with a new defense, Saban finally believed Ricks was ready, and he delivered with a stellar performance against Mississippi State. The potential future first-rounder allowed only one catch on nine targets against Mike Leach's Air Raid offense.
That takes a potential weakness at cornerback and turns it into a strength. His ability to blanket LSU star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte on Ricks Island will allow the Crimson Tide to load the box against dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Alabama ranks in the top 20 in Stuff Rate and has also been dominant on passing downs.
On the other side of the ball, LSU has struggled in coverage against more potent passing attacks. That's problematic against Bryce Young, whose seen a major drop in his pressure-to-sack ratio.
His mobility and elusiveness will pay dividends against LSU's top-25 pass rush. I don't think he will have any issues carving up an LSU unit that ranks 97th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
Alabama also holds a major edge in tackling and special teams. All in all, I think this adds up to a victory of at least two touchdowns for the Tide.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 |
Stuckey: Texas -2.5
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
It's time to buy Texas following its bye week while also selling Kansas State after the biggest lopsided shutout win over an AP Top-10 team in almost 50 years.
To me, that blowout said more about Oklahoma State than anything. Plus, the Pokes had a bevy of injuries and just didn't match up well.
In a battle of two elite backs who spearhead two of the 24 FBS offenses that average over five yards per carry, the Texas defense is much better suited to slow down Deuce Vaughn than Kansas State against Bijan Robinson.
The Horns' secondary has struggled at times, but Kansas State has a very run-heavy offense that lacks the necessary weapons to really exploit any of those vulnerabilities.
Despite three losses, I still have Texas power rated as the sixth-best team in the country. The Longhorns could easily be undefeated with just a few bounces in its three one-possession losses:
- Lost to Alabama on a last-second field goal after battling multiple quarterback injuries.
- Blew a 14-point second-half lead in an eventual overtime loss at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders finished 6-of-8 on fourth-down attempts and won the turnover battle, 2-0, which included a rare Robinson fumble in overtime. Texas won the yards per play battle, 7.1-4.8.
- Blew a double-digit second-half lead at Oklahoma State. Texas averaged a full yard more per play but went 0-for-2 on fourth downs and lost a net of 14 points to turnover luck. It also had 14 penalties for 115 yards, while Oklahoma State had zero.
Texas grades out excellent across the board on early downs, which are much more predictive. It's just been snakebitten in a few high-variance categories, such as late downs, turnovers and penalties.
Ultimately, both squads have very stingy defenses, but I prefer the matchup for the more talented Texas offense. The Horns also have superior special teams and much fresher legs (and health) post-bye.
For what it's worth, Kansas State beat Oklahoma State, 48-0, covering by 45 points. If you're into trends, ranked underdogs that covered in their previous game by 30-plus points against a ranked opponent have gone 3-14 against the spread (17.6%) in their next game, failing to cover by 12.2 points per game.
To me, that trend speaks directly to selling high on a team, which applies here. Texas should pick up a win in this series for a sixth straight season.
Pick: Texas -2.5 |
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