Bears vs. Packers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 7, 2025

After losing his rec yards prop in brutal fashion last week by 0.5 yard, I’m going to stick with the market I think suits him better anyway. When evaluating rookie WRs, it’s always important to look at both talent and landing spot. Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were two of the top WRs of this year’s class and landed in ideal situations to produce right away. Both benefited from trades or injuries that elevated their usage even more. Burden, on the other hand, was a fringe 1st round talent who landed in a very crowded room of pass catchers with limited passing yards to go around. That was always going to make him easy to overlook. I’m not saying he’s the same talent as CeeDee Lamb or JSN, but I’ve pointed out he could have a similar career arc where he starts behind 2+ established WRs, then eventually sees a production jump as injuries happen or the team moves on from someone like DJ Moore. He recently passed Olamide Zaccheus to become the team’s #3 WR, but he has still been topping out around a 60–65% routes-run rate. With Rome Odunze ruled out this week, we could see his first game in a more full-time role, potentially 80%+ routes, and with one fewer high-end WR to compete for targets with. This is the type of stretch where I’m expecting Burden to show more of a true breakout. The matchup is brutal, but the Bears may be forced to throw at a higher rate, and they clearly want to find ways to get the ball in his hands, as we saw with the pop-pass look last week. This is the better market to invest in his upside, and I’m projecting him closer to a 62% chance to clear 3.5 receptions.

Tailing @nick_giffen

At first glance this line looks high, with the Bears the current one-seed off extra rest. But this feels like it could be the time to sell high on Chicago, which could drop all the way to the seven-seed with a loss. The Black Friday win against Philadelphia was impressive, but what else have the Bears proven? Their only other two games against teams currently over .500 were ugly road losses in Detroit and Baltimore. The Packers absolutely dominate this rivalry, winning 26 of the last 30. Green Bay would be on a 12-game win streak in the rivalry if the Bears hadn't won in Week 18 this January against the Packers backups. The key to this matchup is explosives. Chicago has the most explosive offense in the NFL, but Green Bay's defense has been excellent all season at limiting explosives, allowing the second fewest in the league. Chicago throws deep as much as any team in the league, but the Packers defend the deep ball well too. Meanwhile, the Packers rank top five in explosives themselves offensively, but Chicago's defense has not been good against them. The Bears rank 30th in EPA per play against deep balls, and Jordan Love has been ripping throws down field and shredding defenses. The Bears are trending up, but the Packers are still better. For the season, Green Bay still ranks ahead in both offense, 4th versus 12th, and defense, 7th versus 25th. The defensive gap may be even bigger than it looks too: Chicago's defense has been far worse on the road, and Green Bay's has been even better at home, No. 2 on the season. Earlier this week, I bought Jordan Love stock for MVP at +1900 (DraftKings). Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford haven't separated from the pack, and Green Bay is actually the third most likely team to snag a top-two seed behind the Patriots and Broncos, ahead of everyone in the NFC. MVP is a team award, and Love has the advanced metrics and the team profile to make a push. Love just threw four TDs against the Lions on Thanksgiving with everyone watching. If he beats the Bears here, then the Broncos next week, he'll add back-to-back wins over both one-seeds. It has to start with a win here. When two teams at 70% win rate or better play in December, the favorite is 35-19-3 ATS, covering 65% of the time by 4.3 PPG. This late in the season, once everyone agrees who the better team is, don't overthink it. The Packers have covered -6.5 in all but one of their wins this season. Lay the points.

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NFL INT PICKS - W14

Luck Rankings

Tailing @nick_giffen

Will add a write-up here

Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 262-164-10,62% (ROI:19%) Season:7-1-0,88% (ROI:67%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 542-414-12,57% (ROI:10%) Season:19-12-0,61% (ROI:18%) Divisional Totals Early or Late in Szn Overall: 292-178-9,62% (ROI:20%) Season:15-6-0,71% (ROI:37%)

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/bLFYwq6hPYb

Not falling for the Bears hype.

📚Player Profit

Was sent before game… NOT LIVE

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/vlYW83GcRYb