Bills vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Tyrell Shavers. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.13 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.94. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +102 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least -153.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Andy Dalton over 1.5 rush att (+115 at Bet365, +110 at MGM) Dalton has scrambled 7 times on 252 dropbacks as a Panther, which equates to one in every 36 dropbacks. He's projected for 36 dropbacks on the dot, so that's 1 scramble on average right there He's facing a Bills defense that allows QBs to scramble right at their league average rates so far through 6 Bills games, so there doesn't need to be much adjustment there However I'd suspect the long-term scramble rate to be higher given the Bills high pressure rate and use of two-high safety looks, both of which tend to promote more scrambling In his starts as a Panther (to not bias for games when he came in on mop up duty in blowouts and earned kneeldowns at a high rate), Dalton has one rush att for every 18 dropbacks, which would put him at 2 rush attempts. The most likely way he'll run here is with a scramble, and the Panthers are 7-7.5 point underdogs. If that most-likely scenario happens and Carolina is trailing by 1-2 scores for a good chunk of the game, Dalton projects to more like 43 dropbacks which would really help. A designed run/qb sneak isn't out of the question, or even an aborted snap fumble recovery which would count as a run. There's lots of little subtle ways to get an extra carry that all get factored in and add up. Accounting slightly less propensity to scramble/more likely to get sacked at his age, and lower kneel down probability (he could still have a first half kneel and there is a non-zero chance the Panthers win) I'm still getting 1.87 rush attempts which would equate to around a 56% chance to clear 1.5, so getting +115 is nearly a 10% edge.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Despite being 7-point underdogs, the Panthers will likely still try to lean on the run against a Bills run-funnel defense, especially with both Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle healthy. Tremble saw a sharp drop in routes last week with Ja’Tavion Sanders returning from a 3-game absence. Rookie Mitchell Evans even ran one more route than him, which further caps his role in the passing game. Add in Jalen Coker’s season debut and Jimmy Horn Jr. establishing a consistent role, and it’s clear Tremble’s passing-game involvement is trending down. His first-read rate drops from 22% (in three games without Sanders) to just 5.2% when Sanders is active. Tremble still plays in early-down and run-heavy personnel, but when he does see a target they are typically just 4-5 yards downfield. The market has already adjusted on his receptions and yardage props, yet the longest reception line remains a bit too high. Even if he catches 1–2 passes underneath, the odds of one going for 10+ yards are less than a coin flip. I’m projecting his median longest catch at 8 yards, giving roughly a 60% chance he stays under 9.5. This is a sneaky prop for the early slate with plenty of other games to distract from this gross/boring prop. Either it quietly cashes with plenty of other games/props going on or you know early if he breaks a 10+ yard catch and run (which my model expects only about 40% of the time).

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/mVODhIbOJXb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/2IsFjc7LJXb

We were always going to want a tight end against the Panthers on National Tight Ends Day — the question was only which one. Carolina led the league last season with 11 touchdowns allowed to opposing TEs and has already allowed four this season. And these are not superstar TEs; they're such luminaries as Foster Moreau, Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, Noah Gray, Grant Calcaterra, Payne Durham, and Hunter Long. You probably don't even recognize some of those names. That's because they're not lead TEs — they're second or third on the depth chart. They're blocking tight ends, sneaking out at the goal line for a red zone touchdown. And so we come to our longest shot TD bet of the day, third-string Bills tight end, Jackson Hawes. It looks like Dalton Kincaid will return from injury, and Dawson Knox is second on the depth chart, but Hawes has impressed as a rookie, especially as a blocker. He ranks No. 2 among all tight ends in PFF grade, buoyed by his excellent blocking grades both run and pass. Hawes typically plays almost half the snaps, though he doesn't see many targets. He's seen just four targets in six games. But three of those four targets came in the red zone, and Hawes has caught all four of them — including his first career touchdown! Let's see if he can find a second on National Tight Ends Day. Hawes is our longest shot of the day at +1100 (Hard Rock).

Even with a downgrade in for Andy Dalton, I have this total at 50.6. Panthers' run game should do damage here, and expecting the Bills' offense to be effective off the bye.

PX