Happy National Tight Ends Day!
Yes, in case you somehow haven't heard yet, the fourth Sunday in October is officially National Tight Ends Day in the NFL.
It might sound like a goofy, made-up Hallmark holiday, but don't tell the players that — last year there were 10 touchdowns by tight ends in just the eight-game early slate of the holiday!
If we're going to celebrate the National Tight Ends Day, we may as well bet it — but we're going to have to get creative. Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Sam LaPorta all have the week off. Travis Kelce plays on Monday Night Football. Who's left on Sunday?
I've identified seven tight ends I'm betting to find the end zone with an Anytime Touchdown for Sunday, and if you want to get crazy, we'll throw them all together with a 27,674-to-1 ATD parlay that would certainly make holiday believers of us all.
National Tight Ends Day Touchdown Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| Packers vs Steelers |
| Jets vs Bengals |
| Giants vs Eagles |
| Buccaneers vs Saints |
| Bills vs Panthers |
| National Tight Ends Day Parlay |
Packers vs Steelers
Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+165)
My favorite TE bet of the day comes from the night cap on Sunday Night Football, which shapes up as the best TE game on the schedule, both by players and matchups.
The Packers and Steelers allow the second- and third-most fantasy football PPG to opposing tight ends so far this season, so it's a great matchup spot for tight ends both ways, and I'm grabbing one guy on each side.
This will start out as the Aaron Rodgers revenge game, no doubt, and we'll hear about how the Packers last won in Pittsburgh all the way back in 1970. I grabbed Steelers +3.5 and the moneyline on the Hot Read already Sunday night in a classic Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot.
But could the game end as one final celebration of National Tight Ends Day?
Don't forget, Cris Collinsworth was already talking National Running Backs Day with Christian McCaffrey last Sunday night in preparation, so you know the storyline is coming.
And who better to celebrate than breakout Packers TE Tucker Kraft?
Kraft already had a monster primetime game earlier this season against Washington, and he also scored a touchdown last year on National Tight Ends Day, so we already know he's in the spirit.
Kraft has scored in four of six Green Bay games this season and has established himself as Jordan Love's go-to target in the red zone. Kraft leads the Packers in touchdown catches, and he led them last year, too.
Pittsburgh also ranks top 10 in most touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends, and it ranked top 10 last season as well.
In a game that should feature plenty of quick passing against fierce pass rush both ways, short quick passes to tight ends should be key.
I love Tucker Kraft at +165 to score an Anytime TD (bet635), my favorite TE bet of the day, and you can play two scores at +1400.
Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown (+375)
The Steelers practically live in 13 personnel (three tight ends on the field), and they've already had six touchdowns scored by a TE this season, including four in their last game.
TE1s are putting up numbers on the Packers this season — 38 catches for 324 yards and four TDs. Green Bay has allowed a TE to put up 6/65 in four of its six games, and an opposing tight end has scored in all but one Packers game.
It's not really a question of whether a Steelers tight end will find the end zone against Green Bay — the tougher question is which one.
Those six Steelers TE touchdowns this season have come from four players. In fact, FanDuel even has a Tight Ends Day special bet with 3+ TDs from Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward at +5000.
That bet conveniently happens to leave Pittsburgh's go-to TE out of the mix.
That would be Jonnu Smith, who played only 13 snaps in Ireland against the Vikings but has otherwise seen around a 70% snap rate, with at least three catches in five of six games.
If you're looking for receptions or yards, Smith is probably the right target for Pittsburgh. But with a receptions line at 3.5 juiced heavily to the over, there may not be much value there.
Smith leads all Pittsburgh tight ends with 26 targets, but only three of those targets have come in the red zone. That matches Freiermuth, who isn't playing as much this season, but it's one short of Washington.
Washington is an absolute behemoth at 6-foot-7 and 265 pounds if you believe the scouting report, and you can just see the Sunday night crew capping off National Tight Ends day gushing over this mountain of a man.
Four of Washington's 14 targets (29%) this season have come in the red zone, and it's not hard to see why. Washington towers over every opponent, a jump ball just waiting to happen, and he's already scored a touchdown and caught a two-point conversion. He's also seen his snap rate skyrocket in recent weeks, from around a 40% snap rate the first three games to 80% since.
It's impossible to know which Steelers tight end will step up in any given week, but I like Washington most.
Washington is +375 to score an Anytime TD and an outrageous +5500 to score two (both at bet365), which is worth a nibble.
If you want to parlay both Sunday Night Football TE picks to score a TD, Kraft and Washington are +1150 to each find the end zone. They're 839-to-1 to score 2+ TDs each, if you dare (bet365).
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Jets vs Bengals
Noah Fant Anytime Touchdown (+325)
First of all, how is this line almost a touchdown for the Bengals?
We're positive this team is good again after one nice showing? I have the Jets only four spots behind Cincinnati in my power ratings and make this closer to -3, which would translate to about a +130 moneyline. That means the +260 Jets moneyline is worth a nibble.
Either way, this is my favorite TE game on the main Sunday slate, and the proof is in the pudding.
These two teams have allowed the most touchdowns to TEs so far this season: nine against the Bengals and six against the Jets.
Noah Fant caught four balls for 44 yards and a score last game for Cincinnati, his best game of the season, and he's seen four targets in both Joe Flacco games.
Flacco has long loved throwing to his tight end, and Fant has precious little competition now with Mike Gesicki on IR and Tanner Hudson in concussion protocol.
Of course, there's always Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the Jets should give plenty of attention to that duo outside, leaving the middle of the field open for Fant.
Fant is my second favorite TE bet of the day for any Anytime TD behind Tucker Kraft at +325 (Hard Rock).
Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown (+260); Jets Moneyline (+260)
The matchup is even better the other direction, with the Bengals already allowing nine TDs to tight ends.
Nine is so many! Last year, Carolina's historically awful defense led the league with 11 touchdowns allowed. The Bengals are almost there — and they allowed 10 last year, one short of the league lead, and allowed the most fantasy points to TEs all season.
Jets rookie TE Mason Taylor has yet to find the end zone in his NFL career, but he's playing heavy snaps. He might also be the go-to target for this team right now with Garrett Wilson sidelined and very little depth at receiver behind him.
The Bengals have allowed seven TDs to tight ends in the last three games; their defense is so porous that even the Jets should have a few scoring chances.
A potential switch from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor certainly wouldn't hurt. Could we get a Taylor-to-Taylor connection? Let's find out at +260 (FanDuel).
If you want to bet both Fant and Taylor to score an Anytime TD in this one, you can play the parlay at +1430 (Hard Rock).
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Giants vs Eagles
Theo Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+350)
This is the only play on the list that's a bet more on player than situation.
Theo Johnson had a lot of buzz heading into the season as a potential breakout weapon for the Giants, but it wasn't happening with Russell Wilson. Johnson had just six catches for 49 yards in his first three games combined with Wilson at QB.
Enter: Jaxson Dart.
With Dart at quarterback, Johnson has absolutely exploded. He's averaging 3.5 catches for 36 yards per game on six targets, and he's scored four touchdowns in those four games. One of those was a fluky tip-drill score against Denver last week, but Johnson continues to make plays.
Johnson is responsible for more than half of Dart's touchdowns! In fact, nearly half of Johnson's 23 targets have come in the red zone.
With all that information, it might be a bit surprising to see him priced at +350 for an anytime touchdown.
But that's because this is far from a premium matchup.
The Eagles are outstanding against tight ends, among the best defenses in the entire league. In fact, the one game Johnson didn't score with Dart was the Giants' win against the Eagles. He caught just two of his three targets for 27 yards.
Time for Theo to complete the set. He's simply priced too long as Dart's favorite TD target, even in a tough matchup at +350 (bet365).
Sounds worthy of a Dart throw to me!
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Buccaneers vs Saints
Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown (+250); 2 TDs (+2500)
This game is a bit of a mess with so many Bucs injuries, but I'm always happy to sniff around a Taysom Hill TD bet now that he's returned from injury.
The Bucs are among the league's worst defenses on both short passes and passes over the middle of the field. That's tight end territory, and, sure enough, Hill has caught a touchdown in two of his last three games against Tampa Bay.
Of course, Hill is a two-way threat — three, really, but we don't get credit for touchdown passes on ATD bets.
Hill often runs the ball in from short distances, and he could even see more opportunities now that Kendre Miller is out, freeing up about a third of New Orleans' red-zone carries.
Hill has scored an Anytime TD in nine of his last 21 games. A 43% hit rate that would imply a price of around +133, so we are getting almost twice the expected payout at +250.
But the key thing with Hill is that when it's a Taysom game, it's often really a Taysom game.
Three of those nine games with a Hill touchdown actually saw multiple touchdowns by the do-everything tight end, including one with a trio of scores. The Bucs have already allowed two tight ends to score multiple TDs in a game this season and did so twice last year. too.
Play a Hill Anytime TD at +250, but in this case, it's practically mandatory to place a portion of your bet on 2+ TDs at +2500 (both at FanDuel).
And you know what? It probably won't happen but has hit twice since 2022, sneak a tiny portion of your wager on 3+ TDs just in case at +17500 (FanDuel) — you'd be absolutely sick if Hill hit that and we just didn't take the escalator high enough.
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Bills vs Panthers
Jackson Hawes Anytime Touchdown (+1100)
Panthers Moneyline (+320)
I low-key like this matchup for the Panthers, even as underdogs of a touchdown.
Carolina has an excellent power rushing attack with its one-two punch of Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, and Buffalo ranks dead last in run DVOA defensively. Even with Bryce Young out and Andy Dalton in, the Panthers might just pound the rock all game.
They may also be able to hold up defensively against Buffalo's power rushing, with the Panthers defense surprisingly ranked No. 3 in run DVOA defense itself, thanks to a stellar season from Derrick Brown.
Home underdogs of 7+ points in the first eight games of the season are an incredible 19-2-1 ATS since 2019, covering 95% of the time by 9.6 PPG, and that trend already pointed us toward Browns-Packers and Giants-Eagles upsets this season.
I'm sprinkling the Panthers moneyline at +320 (ESPN Bet) — and in a game that could be closer than expected due to the run fits, I'm expecting the Bills to lean in even further and get some extra bodies on the field at tight end to find an advantage in the run game.
We were always going to want a tight end against the Panthers on National Tight Ends Day — the question was which one.
Carolina led the league last season with 11 touchdowns allowed to TEs and has already allowed four this season. And these are not superstar TEs; they're such luminaries as Foster Moreau, Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, Noah Gray, Grant Calcaterra, Payne Durham, and Hunter Long.
You probably don't even recognize some of those names. That's because they're not lead TEs — they're second or third on the depth chart. They're blocking tight ends, sneaking out at the goal line for a red-zone touchdown.
And so we come to our longest-shot TD bet of the day, third-string Bills tight end, Jackson Hawes.
It looks like Dalton Kincaid will return from injury, and Dawson Knox is second on the depth chart, but Hawes has impressed as a rookie, especially as a blocker. He ranks No. 2 among all tight ends in PFF grade, buoyed by his excellent blocking grades both run and pass.
Hawes typically plays almost half the snaps, though he doesn't see many targets — just four targets in six games.
But three of those four targets came in the red zone, and Hawes has caught all four of them — including his first career touchdown!
Let's see if he can find a second on National Tight Ends Day. Hawes is our longest shot of the day at +1100 (Hard Rock).
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National Tight Ends Day Anytime Touchdown Parlay
- Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+165; bet365)
- Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown (+375; bet365)
- Noah Fant Anytime Touchdown (+325; Hard Rock)
- Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown (+260; Hard Rock)
- Theo Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+350; bet365)
- Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown (+250; FanDuel)
- Jackson Hawes Anytime Touchdown (+1100; Hard Rock)
There you have it! Seven tight ends that could very well be getting ready to celebrate National Tight Ends Day on Sunday with an Anytime TD winner.
Ready for a holiday miracle? Put them all together for a National Tight Ends Day Anytime TD parlay with one score each and you'll find odds of +2767364 at Hard Rock Bet.
That looks more like a phone number than parlay odds, but it's effectively about 28,000-to-1.
So you're telling me there's a chance …
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