Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

KCCC

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/zeQ97cr4JJs?is=E0CViqcshk8aT-9W

This angle burned me the other week against the Chargers, who are in fact turning out to be ass. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are a team that could finally force the 3-0 Raiders into more of a trailing, pass-heavy game script. I have Vegas projected to play with the lead at a 27% lower rate than they have so far. There’s also still a chance Mike Washington starts stealing a little more work since he’s been the more explosive back. And Conner Heyward is now 2-for-2 on tush-push tries, which feels like something they’ll keep using in key short-yardage spots. It’s a small thing, but those are exactly the types of plays that quietly eat into Jeanty’s rush-attempt ceiling. He’s sailed over this in all three games, but a lot of the underlying factors are pulling the other way here. I have him closer to 15.9 attempts with around a 58% chance to stay under 16.5, and I’d expect the sharper side of this market to be on his under here. As always, if the Raiders jump out to a 10-0 lead against Kansas City, this thing could be dead pretty quickly. But the more likely outcome is that Vegas actually spends a meaningful stretch playing from behind for the first time this season.

NFL INT PICKS - W4

Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush under 12.5 yards (-114 at FD, -115 at Bet365/DK) Kansas City is a stingier defense than what Jeanty has faced so far this year. The Chiefs allow 1.5 yards before contact compared to a weighted average of 1.97 among Jeanty's other opponents, and just a 2.6% explosive run rate compared to 4.9% that the other defenses allowed. Jeanty has just one explosive rush this year on 63 rushing attempts, and his only carry for more than 12 yards was Week 1 against a Dolphins defense that allows the eighth highest explosive run rate this year. And when the line isn't generating yards for Jeanty, neither is he. Jeanty's yards after contact ranks just 19th out of 33 RBs with at least 30 carries this season. It should be tough sledding for him this weekend against the Chiefs. I'm projecting him to stay under this line around 59.5% of the time.

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP