Falcons vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 13, 2026

From The Lunch Break! Every Fridays 1PM EST! UPDATE: I locked Steelers -3.5 Thursday night, then Tua went out with an oblique, Penix stayed uncleared, Cooper Rush got the start, and Pittsburgh moved to -6. Laying six needs a two score win from a team whose quarterback ranked 25th in adjusted EPA per play at 6.7 yards an attempt with a league low 6.4 average depth of target, behind a defense that finished 29th against the pass. The side moved three points and the total moved one, from 42.5 to 41.5, for a third stringer making an emergency start in a wide zone play action offense built to eat clock, with Rush's passing prop opening at 186.5 yards. What beats me is a pick six and Pittsburgh had 15 interceptions last year, but I'll take that risk over laying a touchdown with Aaron Rodgers.

@The_Oddsmaker https://www.youtube.com/live/rmDj16Ak_rs?is=_BhFd9HeUh9fVv17

Action Playbook LIVE

@nick_giffen https://www.youtube.com/live/rmDj16Ak_rs?is=v74_gbgFwBBP35OM

There is a value opportunity on Cooper Rush's TD passes prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.10 TD passes, while sportsbooks imply 1.28. The model believes there is a 48% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes, so there is some value on the under at +183. This play is good down to at least +138. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

There aren’t any Jack Strand markets to bet on because Atlanta opted to go with Cooper Rush over the talented UDFA, but I still think Strand matters for this prop. With Tua out, I’d expect the Falcons to shift the game plan a bit. Instead of scheming a ton of quick screens to Bijan and even Kyle Pitts, they may lean more on direct handoffs to Bijan and mix in the occasional play-action shot with Rush. Rush isn’t a good QB, but he’s also not someone you need to protect with quick throws on every snap, and you probably aren’t as worried about the ramifications of him taking a hit. Just looking through his career game logs, 18.5 completions already feels a little high. There’s obviously a ton of Week 1 uncertainty here, but I think most of it helps the under. If Atlanta keeps this close, I’d expect a run-heavy game plan, especially with Pittsburgh likely playing at a snail’s pace on the other side. If the Falcons fall behind and Rush is forced into a pass-heavy script, that opens the door for Stefanski to potentially turn to Strand and see if the rookie can spark a comeback. I’m not saying that outcome is especially likely, but even if it’s only something like 10%, that’s a huge out against the worst-case game script for this under. Rush also reportedly left practice with back spasms. He seems likely to be fine, but that’s another thing that could flare up and immediately help this bet. This is another Week 1 prop where I don’t think there’s a clean “true” projection because the range of outcomes is so wide, but I’d conservatively put this closer to 17.5 completions with around a 58-60% chance to stay under 18.5.

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-1/id1004530793?i=1000789000615

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Tua in Pittsburgh against that Patrick Graham defense? Come on down, you’re our first bet of the new NFL season. Grabbing before the 3s are gone. Rivers too.