Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026
Chiefs at Raiders
8:25 pm • CBSChiefs at Raiders Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiefs 5-0 | -5.5 | -5-113 | o47.5-108 | -235 |
 Raiders 3-3 | u43.5 | +5-106 | u47.5-110 | +195 |
Allegiant StadiumLas Vegas
Chiefs vs. Raiders Expert Picks
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 24-38-2 (-18.3u)
KC -4.5-108
1.08u
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 43-46-8 (-0.6u)
LV +4.5-110
0.5u
Kody Malstrom
Last 30d: 64-45-1 (+6.7u)
LV +4.5-108
0.5u
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 49-61-0 (+1.8u)
A.Jeanty u16.5 Rush Att-107
0.5u
This angle burned me the other week against the Chargers, who are in fact turning out to be ass. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are a team that could finally force the 3-0 Raiders into more of a trailing, pass-heavy game script. I have Vegas projected to play with the lead at a 27% lower rate than they have so far.
There’s also still a chance Mike Washington starts stealing a little more work since he’s been the more explosive back. And Conner Heyward is now 2-for-2 on tush-push tries, which feels like something they’ll keep using in key short-yardage spots. It’s a small thing, but those are exactly the types of plays that quietly eat into Jeanty’s rush-attempt ceiling.
He’s sailed over this in all three games, but a lot of the underlying factors are pulling the other way here. I have him closer to 15.9 attempts with around a 58% chance to stay under 16.5, and I’d expect the sharper side of this market to be on his under here.
As always, if the Raiders jump out to a 10-0 lead against Kansas City, this thing could be dead pretty quickly. But the more likely outcome is that Vegas actually spends a meaningful stretch playing from behind for the first time this season.
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 376-394-9 (+21.9u)
Over 47.5-105
0.5u
LV +5.5-110
0.5u
K.Cousins o0.5 Rush Yds+100
0.5u
Ryan Minion
Last 30d: 231-230-2 (+6.9u)
A.Jeanty Anytime TD Scorer Yes-120
$1.20
KC -4-120
$1.20
A.Jeanty o84.5 Rush + Rec Yds-113
$1.00
Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 24-81-4 (+1.2u)
B.Bowers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+195
0.49u
OldSchool0909
Last 30d: 46-48-1 (+1.4u)
LV +4.5-108
0.93u
LV +185
1u
Collin Whitchurch
Last 30d: 101-134-3 (-0.5u)
A.Jeanty u16.5 Rush Att-120
0.5u
A.Jeanty u12.5 Longest Rush-115
0.57u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 100-106-4 (+9.2u)
KC +1.5 (Live)-116
1u
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 50-54-2 (-7.9u)
Under 47.5-105
1.05u
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 68-82-4 (-36.9u)
LV +4.5+102
3.06u
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 56-56-1 (+8.8u)
LV +4.5+100
2u
RoyalsProps
Last 30d: 33-43-2 (-15.7u)
KC -4-118
1.18u
Frank Ammirante
Last 30d: 99-90-0 (-4.3u)
Under 47.5-110
1.1u
A.Jeanty u59.5 Rush Yds-125
1u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 22-63-1 (-5.3u)
B.Bowers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200
1u
P.Mahomes o0.5 Int+135
0.5u
NFL INT PICKS - W4
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 89-77-0 (+11.4u)
Over 39.5 (Live)-117
1u
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 46-115-0 (+3.2u)
KC -5-108
0.54u
A.Jeanty u12.5 Longest Rush-114
1.14u
Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush under 12.5 yards (-114 at FD, -115 at Bet365/DK)
Kansas City is a stingier defense than what Jeanty has faced so far this year. The Chiefs allow 1.5 yards before contact compared to a weighted average of 1.97 among Jeanty's other opponents, and just a 2.6% explosive run rate compared to 4.9% that the other defenses allowed.
Jeanty has just one explosive rush this year on 63 rushing attempts, and his only carry for more than 12 yards was Week 1 against a Dolphins defense that allows the eighth highest explosive run rate this year.
And when the line isn't generating yards for Jeanty, neither is he. Jeanty's yards after contact ranks just 19th out of 33 RBs with at least 30 carries this season.
It should be tough sledding for him this weekend against the Chiefs.
I'm projecting him to stay under this line around 59.5% of the time.
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 55-80-1 (-26.1u)
LV u22.5-110
1u
Adam Kaufman
Last 30d: 318-302-11 (-20.8u)
Over 9.5 (1Q)-115
0.22u
LV +118 (4Q)
0.25u
Over 13.5 (2Q)-128
0.25u
LV o10.5 (1H)+126
0.32u
KC -148 (1Q)
0.25u
Under 13.5 (4Q)-110
0.25u
LV +3.5 (1H)-120
0.21u
LV +1.5 (2Q)-110
0.23u
Over 9.5 (3Q)-126
0.25u
LV o21.5+101
0.25u
LV +4.5-108
0.23u
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 87-105-1 (+11.1u)
KC -4.5-112
1.12u
Alex Hinton
Last 30d: 90-100-1 (-6.0u)
B.Bowers o72.5 Rec Yds-114
0.88u
Nick Griffith
Last 30d: 52-44-0 (+10.9u)
LV +4.5-108
1u
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 92-93-4 (-11.4u)
Under 48-113
1u
John Feltman
Last 30d: 87-54-1 (+16.2u)
LV +5-110
0.5u
Charlie DiSturco
Last 30d: 109-201-1 (+11.6u)
KC o26.5-120
0.75u
KCCC
Kendra Middleton
Last 30d: 15-17-0 (+0.5u)
KC -4.5+108
0.25u
B.Bowers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200
0.5u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 20-96-6 (-8.9u)
B.Bowers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200
1u
@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP
X.Worthy Anytime TD Scorer Yes+240
0.42u
@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP
Action Network Live!
Last 30d: 18-52-0 (-5.4u)
P.Mahomes o0.5 Int+125
0.8u
Chiefs vs. Raiders Previews & Analysis
Chiefs vs. Raiders Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Chiefs vs. Raiders Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Raiders are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Raiders are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Raiders are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Raiders' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Raiders' 3 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Chiefs vs. Raiders Injury Updates
Chiefs Injuries
- Tyquan ThorntonWR
Thornton is out with ankle
Out
- Rashee RiceWR
Rice is out with hamstring
Out
- Brashard SmithRB
Smith is out with hamstring
Out
Raiders Injuries
- Jack BechWR
Bech is out with arm
Out
- Mike WashingtonRB
Washington is questionable with unknown
Questionable
Team Stats
Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds Comparison
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Chiefs at Raiders Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Chiefs 5-0 | N/A | N/A |
Raiders 3-3 | N/A | N/A |