Raiders vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - November 1, 2026

I’m on a tighter schedule today, so this may be the only pick I have time to give a full note on. Cousins has cleared this number in 6 straight games, which is exactly why this feels a little trap-y to me. After starting 0-3, the Raiders have now lost four straight, and this is right around the point where I figured we might start getting closer to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza making his first career start. The problem is their schedule gets brutal after this, and I can’t imagine they want his debut coming at San Francisco or at home against Seattle. The most likely outcome is still Cousins playing the entire game and this staying relatively close. In that script, Las Vegas should be more balanced and may finally be able to get its awful run game going against a weaker Jets defense that is also missing three defensive linemen, including first-round pick David Bailey. Cousins has also been much less productive when playing from ahead, averaging just 5.8 YPA with the lead compared to 8.2 when trailing. So the close/positive script that should help the Raiders also happens to be the tougher setup for him to pile up passing yards. And if we get the opposite script, where Cousins struggles or Vegas falls behind in the 2nd half, there’s at least a non-zero chance Mendoza enters the game. I’m not saying that’s 100%, or even the most likely outcome. The point is simply that the probability is above 0%, which gives this under a nice little escape hatch if the game starts turning into the exact pass heavy script that has fueled Cousins’ overs lately. I hit a bunch of pass yard unders in similar spots last year for basically this exact reason. Either we get the more balanced game script that naturally lowers Cousins’ volume, or things go badly enough that Mendoza becomes a possibility. These are tricky to assign a true median to, but I like how both ends of the game-script distribution can feed into Cousins’ floor here.

Geno Smith revenge game. Yes, the Jets lost to the Dolphins, but the advanced box score says they should won that game comfortably…the Jets had more yards, more yards per play, more explosive plays, and a higher success rate overall – and still lost. According to the Nick Giffen “deserved win” graph, it was the least deserving loss of the weekend. So I think the Jets are the better buy low…big time fade the public game too, 78% of the bets on the Raiders. Highest % of bets this weekend.

Ashton Jeanty Longest Rush under 12.5 yds (-114 at FanDuel/Caesars/DraftKings) You'd think this would be a spot to bump up Jeanty after lower volume the last three games, but even using my model's projected 13.6 carries I'm showing value on his under here. The Jets actually have the fifth-lowest rate of 13+ yard runs allowed to RBs when adjusting for the RBs each defense faced. Meanwhile Jeanty has been the second-worst in this metric of 32 backs that average at least 10 carries per game from 13 yards or more from the end zone. His offensive line blocking has been brutal, generating him the third fewest yards before contact per attempt among RBs with at least 50 attempts from 13+ yards from the end zone. The Jets have had a lead on just 34% of second-half defensive plays this season and 42% of fourth-quarter plays compared to north of 60% for a 1.5-point favorite like they are this weekend. If they do lead, that'd help reduce the rush volume they've faced which has been monstrous this year. I'm projecting Jeanty to stay under 12.5 closer to -200.

@Stuckey2 https://youtu.be/B52fNE-Gm4k?is=bXPQeCO0aZs9vP5m

Guess I’ll go down with the sinking ship here

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/FZXSqmde26w?is=X18b7glqKbsZ2ABl