Jets vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - September 27, 2026

🪜

After allowing Josh Allen to run for 69 yards last week, Dan Campbell said it was a point of emphasis this week to not let Geno Smith get out of the pocket & he referenced their past matchups (Allen went for 38, 20, 49 in L3). This Lions defense has been great at limiting explosive scrambles the past few seasons, except for last week against Josh Allen but I don’t see Geno having the same success. DET has blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate this season & Geno’s scramble rate drops significantly when blitzed. He’s under 8.5 long rush in both games this season & in 12/L13 games overall. He may scramble a couple times in this game but I think DET will have no issues containing him.

I had my eye on this prop last week, but my biggest concern was Kenyon Sadiq potentially taking more of Isaiah Williams' slot work as the first-round pick got ramped up from injury. Instead, even in a positive game script, Williams continued to play a significant role. He ran a route on 85.7% of dropbacks, posted a 14.3% TPRR, and lined up in the slot on 69% of his routes. That's basically in line with what we saw in Week 1, when he jumped to a 75% route share after Omar Cooper went down. The Mason Taylor injury makes me much more comfortable betting this now. Taylor was listed as week-to-week and has missed the first two practices and is trending toward missing Sunday's game, which should open up more work for Sadiq in-line rather than having him take snaps away from Williams in the slot. Williams also had a similar usage pattern toward the end of last season and was productive with it. I'm not expecting him to suddenly become a high-volume downfield receiver, because his average depth of target is extremely low. But I don't think he needs that with the amount of playing time and underneath work I'm expecting. I absolutely love the matchup and game environment. The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs in a dome against a Detroit defense I think can be attacked through the air. That should create plenty of pass volume, and more importantly, it should keep New York in 11 personnel more often. That's exactly where Williams has shown he can stay on the field. The short aDOT is obviously the biggest concern with this number, but the role is simply too good for me to get hung up on it. He's already averaging 3.5 receptions and 20.5 receiving yards per game through two weeks, and this is the best environment we've seen for the Jets passing-game. With Taylor likely out and Williams continuing to function as the WR3, I think his lines are far too low.

Selling the Jets off OT vs Dan Campbell off a loss, at home, with extra time to prep and get healthy. Get right spot for Detroit.

NFL INT Picks - Week 3

Early road dogs that missed the previous postseason day games Overall: 134-72-6,65% (ROI:26%) Season:4-3-0,57% (ROI:7%) #TSA

@gneiffer07 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-3/id1004530793?i=1000791547972