Jets vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

The offensive prop markets for this game are pretty tricky with Tyson Bagent starting for Chicago and multiple Jets skill guys out, but the more interesting angle to me is actually on defense. The Bears and Jets both lead the league in time of possession, while their defenses are essentially tied for facing the fewest plays per game. Obviously both offenses can’t dominate TOP here, so at least one of these defenses should see a pretty meaningful bump in tackle opportunities. This is actually one of those rare games where a 2-3 player tackle-over parlay probably has more correlation than usual. Of all the potential buy-low spots, TJ Edwards stands out the most. He hasn’t come remotely close to clearing this line through three games, but part of that is simply Chicago facing such low play volume. The bigger thing is his ridiculous 36% missed tackle rate. Edwards has been under 10% in each of the last five seasons, so unless he suddenly forgot how to do the thing he’s been paid millions of dollars to do for nearly a decade, there should be a ton of regression coming. The matchup helps too. A heavy dose of Braelon Allen running inside and Kenyon Sadiq working underneath should create plenty of chances for Edwards to clean up tackles or get involved on assists. Maybe he’s just completely cooked. Always possible! But I’m projecting him closer to 6.3 tackles with around a 60% chance to clear 5.5, so getting +120 looks pretty attractive. Also a good reminder that the NFL season is almost never just “take what happened in the first three games and multiply it by 5-6.” The sample is still tiny, players are going to swing hard in the other direction, and Edwards is one of the guys I’m betting on to do exactly that.

Analysis on twitter… Somehow cant win a free play on this app

@Stuckey2 https://youtu.be/3zlHdfn163U?is=HRHNRmeLuDMKMRy5

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP

@EvanHAbrams https://www.youtube.com/live/zeQ97cr4JJs?is=DLmhtNsO4XJsjrFT