Saints vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Last week was wild. The Saints lost 44–13, yet Kamara finished with 18 carries. The reason: a ridiculous first half where New Orleans ran 46 plays because Seattle kept scoring fast, including a punt-return TD that handed the ball right back. One drive was 16 plays with 5 Kamara carries, Kendre Miller got the next series and went three-and-out, then Kamara came back for another 10+ play drive with 4 more. They are averaging 68.7 plays per game, tied for the league lead. That kind of volume is due for regression. Now they are +14.5 dogs at Buffalo in what should turn into more of a trailing (2+ scores) pass heavy game script. However, the Bills lead the league in time of possession, and with a 2+ score lead they go at a very slow pace..letting roughly 31 seconds tick between snaps, which suppresses their opponents play volume. I expect Buffalo to get out front, bleed clock, and push the Saints toward more Kamara checkdowns instead of piling up carries. There is also a real chance Kendre Miller eats a bit more early-down work as the season goes as they evaluate for 2026 and beyond; if his occassional series isn’t a 3 and out, that would eat into Kamara’s carry ceiling. I have Kamara at 13.8 rush attempts with about 60% to stay under 14.5. This is about the number. Getting exposure to 14 is meaningful, roughly worth ~10%, while 13.5 would be a true coin flip.

Josh Allen under 6.5 rush att MGM/365 NO 5th worst pressure rate vs. expected so far in 2025 and 5th worst raw pressure rate Josh Allen scramble rate has decreased by more than 10% with a clean pocket than facing pressure since the start of last year The Saints also play zone at a top-six rate in the NFL, including Cover 3 at the third-highest rate which is the hardest to scramble against with an extra man in the box and zone coverage with the DBs facing the QB As huge faves, likely won’t be asked to do much designed w/legs Might get a couple kneel downs, but with a strong chance of a blowout, it would be Trubisky taking the knees in that scenario. Since start of last year: Trubisky has taken all the 2H kneels in double-digit BUF wins Allen has taken all the 2H knees in single-digit BUF wins Trubisky with 18 2H kneels across 8 games, Allen with 12 2H kneels across 6 games

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.88 rush attempts for Ty Johnson compared to 5.00 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 63% of the time, resulting in a 47% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $47.39. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz