Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - September 19, 2025

Smaller. Hate TNF and hate the Dolphins but this is a bit too high with the Bills D injuries imo. Talked about on pod.

The Bills enter Thursday night at 2-0 and heavy 11.5-point favorites against the 0-2 Dolphins. Anything can happen in the NFL, but given Miami’s struggles on and off the field, plus the challenge of a short week on the road, the spread feels about right. Assuming the number is sharp, Buffalo projects to spend a decent chunk of this game playing with a lead of 8+ points. That game script is where Ray Davis gains the most value. Last season, when James Cook, Davis, and Ty Johnson were all healthy: -Davis handled 24% of RB carries in one-score games. -Just 17% when trailing by 8+. -But his share spiked to 38% when the Bills led by 8+. With Buffalo favored to control this game, I project Davis for around 7.1 rush attempts, putting his median closer to 25 yards and giving him roughly a 60% chance of clearing 21.5. This angle is likely to gain steam, and his number should only climb. FanDuel is still hanging 21.5, so I’m grabbing it early.

3 FG’s in both games this season. Bills have 0 problem moving the chains & if they lead they’ll take chip shots to pad the lead. Fins allowed 2+ in both games already. The system play is kickers on winning teams on TNF.

Collab w/ @shadybiev 🐬

Might be the only Dolphin we can trust. Scored a TD in 18/30 career regular season games and all four games vs Bills in his career.

Josh Allen under 6.5 rush att Miami sub-20% pressure rate so far in 2025, almost exactly 20% in 2024 Josh Allen scrambled 14.7% against pressure last year, but just 3.8% vs. clean pocket As huge faves, likely won’t be asked to do much designed w/legs 4 total rush att in 2 games vs MIA last year Might get a couple kneel downs, but a chance if it’s a blowout Trubisky takes the knees Trubisky did last year in first meeting blowout In fact, Mitch took knees in 6 of BUF’s 13 wins last year https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/josh-allen-player-props-over-under-pick-for-tnf

Tailing @nick_giffen

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