Super Bowl Picks 2023: Props for Both Sides of Chiefs vs. Eagles

To see the first two Chiefs vs. Eagles player props I bet on Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, click here.

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Let’s first define the rules here, per DraftKings: safeties are excluded, but kicking points and 2-point conversions are included. Essentially, this is a bet that at least four players will generate points for the Chiefs.

As a team, Kansas City cleared this line in 12 of their 17 regular-season games, but it has stayed under in its two playoff games. In order to score against the Eagles, I’m counting on Patrick Mahomes spreading the ball around.

Three of the misses were in games that saw Travis Kelce score multiple touchdowns. While the All-Pro tight-end is more than capable of pulling that off in the Super Bowl, the Eagles have only allowed three receiving touchdowns to tight-ends in 19 games. They rank sixth in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric against tight-ends.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker essentially functions as a free square since it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t make at least one field goal or extra point. And among players expected to be active, 12 Chiefs players have scored an offensive touchdown this season.

Andy Reid is a mastermind drawing up plays in the red zone, and I’m expecting some creativity against the Eagles defense. That will bring enough guys into the fold for us to win this bet.

You’ll have to scroll to find this one on DraftKings. It’s under “Game Props,” then scroll way down to the “Conversions” section.

Over the course of the regular season, the Eagles converted the third-most third downs in the regular season (6.2 per game) at the fourth-highest rate (45.9%).

Kansas City was roughly league average defending third downs, allowing a conversion rate of 39.4% (17th in the NFL). However, against high-octane offenses (which I’m defining as teams in the top 12 of offensive yards per game), the Chiefs have allowed at least six third-down conversions in six of nine games.

Unlike most props, this one won’t be too dependent on game-flow. And in what should be a pace-up spot, I have the Eagles projected to face 15 third downs, while converting seven of them.

If you can't use the Quickslip below, this one is at the top of the NFL landing page on FanDuel. From there, click on "Game Props" to "Down Props," where you'll find this wager.

Pick: Eagles Over 5.5 Third Down Conversions

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