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Your Ultimate Week 6 AAF Betting Guide: Picks, Analysis, More For All 4 Games

Mar 16, 2019 8:55 AM EDT
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Memphis QB Zach Mettenberger, San Antonio RB Kenneth Farrow

March is an exciting time for football fans. There’s the combine, free agency and enough draft speculation to make the average NFL junkie briefly forget there’s no actual football being played.

But this year we have the Alliance of American Football.

We’re on to Week 6 of the new league, and business is booming. We have eight competitive teams thanks to some recent switches under center, and only the Orlando Apollos seem to have any sort of significant edge on the competition.

What follows is an in-depth look at all four of this weekend’s games, including the betting market, Week 5 takeaways, injuries, key matchups, daily fantasy edges and betting picks.

And if that’s not enough, we have this lineup of comprehensive coverage:

Let’s dig in.

Betting Odds: Memphis Express at Salt Lake Stallions

  • Spread: Stallions -7
  • Over/Under: 39.5
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

Betting market: The Stallions opened as 8-point favorites, but have since moved down to -7 at most books. The opening over/under of 40 points has also dropped to 39.5.

Week 5 Takeaways

Memphis’ 23-20 Loss to Atlanta

The Express held a 20-14 lead over the Legends entering the fourth quarter of their Week 5 loss, but a late interception by Zach Mettenberger allowed Aaron Murray and Co. to drive down the field for a last-second game-winning field goal.

It’s actually surprising the game was this close, as Memphis ran just 42 plays compared to 76 for Atlanta.

Mettenberger has averaged the second-most yards per attempt in the league, but has yet to throw more than 25 passes during a game in Mike Singletary’s run-heavy offense.

Salt Lake’s 25-27 Loss to San Diego

Josh Woodrum set season-high marks in attempts (48), yards (380), yards per attempt (7.9) and … interceptions (3) during last week’s loss. Still, he deserves credit for leading the Stallions on consecutive touchdown drives over the final 10 minutes to give Salt Lake a 25-24 lead with just 57 seconds in regulation.

The Stallions utilized a two-back committee featuring Joel Bouagnon and Terrell Newby with Branden Oliver on the injured reserve list, while slot receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El remains the passing game’s go-to target.

Which team is healthier? Memphis

The Express have a multitude of injuries to worry about, although none appear to be too serious.

Defensive end Corey Vereen, offensive lineman Jessamen Dunker and starting wide receiver Dontez Byrd failed to practice Wednesday. Defensive linemen Montori Hughes and Julius Warmsley along with cornerback Charles James were at least able to get in limited sessions.

Meanwhile, the Stallions placed running back Matt Asiata and starting receiver Kaelin Clay on Injured Reserve with season-ending injuries. They then added running backs Terry Swanson and Terron Ward along with linebacker John Timu in corresponding roster moves.

Key matchup: Memphis’ Rush Offense vs. Salt Lake’s Front-Seven

The Express are hell-bent on getting every last mile out of Zac Stacy’s legs, but they’ll have their hands full controlling the line of scrimmage against the Stallions’ elite run defense.

  • Rush yards allowed per carry: 3.16 (first in the AAF)
  • Rush yards allowed per game: 73.2 (first)
  • Rushing touchdowns allowed: 2 (tied for first)
  • PFF run defense grade: 83.4 (first)

Memphis’ best bet for success is to utilize a more pass-heavy game plan to take advantage of Mettenberger’s early success and to avoid attacking the teeth of the Salt Lake defense.

DFS edge: Kenny Bell bounce-back performance