Your Ultimate Week 7 AAF Betting Guide: Picks, Analysis, More For All 4 Games

Mar 22, 2019 01:58 PM EDT
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: San Antonio QB Logan Woodside, Memphis QB Johnny Manziel

March can be an exciting time for football fans. There’s the combine, free agency and enough draft speculation to make the average NFL junkie forget there’s no actual football being played.

And this year, we have the Alliance of American Football added into the mix.

We’re on to Week 7 of the new league, and business is booming. We have eight competitive teams thanks to some recent switches under center, and only the one-loss Orlando Apollos seem to have any sort of significant edge on the competition.

What follows is an in-depth look at all four of this weekend’s games, including the betting market, Week 6 takeaways, injuries, key matchups, daily fantasy edges and betting picks.

And if that’s not enough, we have this lineup of comprehensive coverage:

Let’s dig in.

Betting Odds: Orlando Apollos at Atlanta Legends

  • Spread: Orlando -8.5
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

Betting market: The line and total have held steady since opening.

Week 6 Takeaways

Orlando’s 22-17 Loss to Arizona

Top AAF quarterback Garrett Gilbert had his least efficient game of the season on his way to completing just 23-of-48 (48%) passes for 268 yards (5.6 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and an interception.

Still, the Apollos had solid performances from their solidified top-two receivers Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall, and from their two-headed backfield featuring D’Ernest Johnson and De’Veon Smith. The Apollos were in position to win on the game’s final play — with just four seconds to play on Arizona’s 8-yard line — but they lost on a false start and 10 second run-off.

Atlanta’s 37-6 Loss to San Antonio

Aaron Murray took a step back in Week 6 by converting his 41 pass attempts into 215 yards (5.2 Y/A) with one touchdown and three interceptions. He’s tentatively locked in as the Legends’ starting quarterback, though backup Peter Pujals did was brought in late into the blowout loss.

The backfield remains an ever-evolving timeshare featuring Brandon Radcliff, Tarean Folston and Denard Robinson, while Seantavius Jones and Keith Towbridge are tentatively established as the team’s top-two pass-game threats.

Which team is healthier? Orlando

The only Apollos players at risk of missing Saturday’s game are defensive ends Anthony Moten (lower leg), Josh Banks (shoulder) and Izaah Burks (shoulder) along with linebacker Earl Okine (back), backup wide receiver Ishmael Hyman (knee) and defensive back Deji Olatoye (lower leg). Still, all were at least limited in practice on Thursday and aren’t thought to be dealing with serious injuries.

The Legends are also fairly healthy, though neither offensive lineman Parker Collins (ankle) nor safety Tyson Granham (neck) managed to practice on Thursday. Wide receiver Ervin Phillips (groin) and running back Lawrence Pittman (ankle) are also banged up, but are tentatively expected to suit up.

The worst news for Atlanta: Starting left tackle Brandon Pertile was placed on the injured reserve list and is out indefinitely.

Key matchup: Orlando’s Offense vs. Atlanta’s Defense

This game is easily the week’s largest mismatch between an offense and defense.

  • Atlanta (4.6 yards per carry allowed) joins Birmingham (4.65) and San Antonio (4.97) as the league’s three worst defenses in stopping opposing running backs.
  • The Orlando running backs’ average of 5.45 yards per carry is easily the highest mark in the league ahead of Arizona (4.65).
  • Pro Football Focus has given the Legends their worst team coverage grade paired with the fourth-best pass rush.
  • The Apollos easily boast the No. 1 pass offense in yards per attempt (8.26) and have the league’s best wide receiver in Charles Johnson.
  • Orlando also has the league’s best point differential at +67; Atlanta ranks dead last at -87.

Have fun, Steve Spurrier.

DFS edge: Orlando WRs

Continuing to target Charles Johnson makes sense as long as he’s getting a league-high 8.5 targets per game. Don’t forget about Jalin Marshall either, who has averaged 5.0 targets per game and played 89% of the offense’s snaps last week.

The Legends’ league-worst defense in yards allowed per pass attempt has just one cornerback (Dontalleo Brown, No. 11) inside of PFF’s top-25 highest-graded corners.

Bet to watch: Apollos -8.5

This line feels several points too low. The Apollos played their sloppiest football of the year in Week 6 and still were an ill-timed false start away from snatching a last-second victory.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has already lost by 31, 16, 12 and 34. The latter came against the Apollos in Week 1, and I expect the better team to once again comfortably emerge victorious.


Betting Odds: Salt Lake Stallions at San Antonio Commanders