All 32 NFL Coaching Staffs Ranked for 2023: Why It’s Important for Bettors

The 2023 NFL season is nearly here as rosters around the league are slowly being narrowed down to 53 players. But sometimes we forget about the names that don't count toward that 53: the coaching staff.

Coaching has a far bigger impact in the NFL than you'd think — biggest of any major American sport.

Head coaches make huge in-game decisions managing the clock, calling timeouts, deciding when to go for it aggressively on fourth down, challenging plays, and more. They also hire and manage a deep team of assistants who play key roles.

Behind any good modern offense is a great offensive coordinator (OC), and an elite defensive coordinator (DC) maximizes talent with a perfect scheme. Units like special teams and offensive lines have their own coaches too. We're ranking entire coaching staffs, not just head coaches.

So before we kick off the new season, let's analyze the coaching landscape and rank all 32 staffs as a unit. This has major implications for bettors, from live betting to spreads to futures. What can we learn?

Be sure to check out the whole rankings series:

• Quarterbacks
• Offensive lines
• Offenses
• Defenses

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Tier 1 — Number One with a Bullet

Last year's preseason ranking: 1

The champs are No. 1 until proven otherwise, and former OC Eric Bieniemy's exit wasn't enough to drop them.

Andy Reid is the genius behind this offense — and, you know, that guy Mahomes — and new OC Matt Nagy knows the system and should step in without missing a beat. Since Mahomes got the job in 2018 per PFF, Reid's offense sits at a wild 0.241 EPA per pass, dwarfing the league and nearly double the Chargers (0.129) in second.

But we're ranking coaching staffs not head coaches, and this staff is the Avengers. DC Steve Spagnuolo keeps opponents off balance and always finds a way to have this unit peaking in the playoffs, and Dave Toub (special teams) and Andy Heck (offensive line) add expertise too.

There's a reason the Chiefs have played in five consecutive AFC Championship Games — and counting.

Tier 2 — Proven Excellence

Last year's preseason ranking: 5

The Patriots return to No. 2 after a slight dip last season when Bill Belichick brazenly decided to hire all of his old goons but no actual offensive play caller. That didn't go well, so now he's turned things over to OC Bill O'Brien, a massive upgrade for this team. O'Brien is a terrible GM but a terrific play-caller who should get this offense back on track.

You already know Belichick has the defense on lock, and he does all the little things, routinely elite with special teams and offensive line for those extra little edges. By PFF metrics, Belichick would win 11.7 games with a league-average roster, a full win more than anyone else.

Last year's preseason ranking: 3

It looked like Sean McVay might retire, but his return keeps the Rams near the top of the rankings.

McVay's play-calling has become a bit stagnant at times and his in-game decisions leave plenty to be desired, but he's done an amazing job hiring and developing terrific assistants to keep things sharp. DC Raheem Morris is excellent, and new OC Mike LaFleur could bring some Shanahan tree to McVay's scheme. It'll be interesting to see what such a talented coaching staff does with a roster lacking talent.

Last year's preseason ranking: 2

This Ravens staff could end the year at No. 1. John Harbaugh is my top head coach. He's terrific in-game and has consistently hired excellent and diverse staffs, showing himself flexible and willing to fit scheme around talent, not the other way around. He has consistently elite special teams units, with Chris Horton (ST) a boon.

If Baltimore has a big year, teams may look to college for the next hot coordinator. DC Mike Macdonald took a while to figure things out last year coming over from Michigan but had this defense roaring late in the year, and now it's new OC Todd Monken's turn. He was incredible at Georgia and brings an aggressive, downfield, pass-heavy attack, a brand new look for Lamar Jackson and this remade receiving corps.

If you're buying these Ravens college coordinators, you might consider a Lamar Jackson MVP (+1600, FanDuel) or Ravens Super Bowl (+1800) ticket.

Tier 3 — The Next Wave

Last year's preseason ranking: 6

The 49ers are peak buzzy right now, but this staff could be in for a bit of a reckoning.

Kyle Shanahan is a unique play caller who uses motion to create a hyper-efficient system that somehow works with any quarterback in the world — or does it? Shanahan is 52-46, with three trips to the NFC Championship Game but three other seasons at six wins or less. He's 38-17 with Jimmy Garoppolo but only 14-29 with everyone else. Shanny's offense has an incredibly high floor despite skewing run-heavy, thanks to a super-efficient, low-volume passing game.

Is Shanahan's system really foolproof though? I'm not convinced the magic was all it seemed last fall. San Francisco got its glut of weapons healthy and played a cakewalk schedule down the stretch. I worry that Shanahan's stubbornness opted into a questionable choice at QB and wonder how well his offense will hold up with a recovering-from-injury Mr. Irrelevant QB and a faltering offensive line.

This season presents one more new challenge as Shanahan turns a talented defense over to new DC Steve Wilks. This team has now lost DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh, and Wilks coaches a more aggressive scheme and sometimes struggles against the run. Shanahan's success has often been propped up by stellar defensive play. We'll see if everyone's still singing San Francisco's praises in January.

Last year's preseason ranking: 17

San Francisco lost another name a year ago in Mike McDaniel, and their loss was the Dolphins' gain. At times, McDaniel's offense looked revolutionary. Even without much blocking or a proven QB, Miami electrified opponents with speed and explosive plays, racking up YAC and huge YPA and running defenses dizzy. That offense broke down late in the year, so the question is whether that was Tua Tagovailoa and Terron Armstead's injuries or if the rest of the league was catching up. I lean toward more the former.

This is an aggressive ranking for a half-season of great results, but that's because new DC Vic Fangio is just as exciting. Fangio's system is the sort of scheme that slows down big-play attacks like McDaniel's, so it's telling that he went out and got Fangio and Renaldo Hill (passing coordinator) to build a shell and stop that deep ball.

Miami is betting it can produce explosive plays and stop opponents from doing the same, a fascinating bet that could pay off big.

Last year's preseason ranking: 12

The Eagles bet big on their own aggressive formula a year ago and it paid off with a trip to the Super Bowl, but Philadelphia paid the price in the offseason when it lost both coordinators.

Nick Sirianni may be the next elite head coach. He has a new game plan for every opponent and hammers whatever works until opponents adjust, and he's made great midseason adjustments. Sirianni ranks first in the league in aggressiveness and fourth-down decisions and first in win probability added over expectation. He's finding all the little edges. Losing both coordinators is a real blow, though.

Philadelphia is very high on new OC Brian Johnson and groomed him for this opportunity. He has big shoes to fill but gets big help from Jeff Stoutland, the league's best OL coach. New DC Sean Desai has only one year of experience calling plays and a history of poor run defense, something that plagued this defense last year and might have ultimately cost it a Super Bowl. Philly has some questions to answer.

Tier 4 — The 2023 Wild Cards

Last year's preseason ranking: 16

The four coaching staffs in this section might represent the biggest swing factors in this year's postseason race.

The Giants were a wildcard last season and hit a full house. Brian Daboll worked wonders with Daniel Jones, maximizing the offense by using Jones as a runner and elevating a no-name receiving corps and poor offensive line to a playoff berth. Daboll has proven his incredible floor-raising abilities. The question now is whether he can maintain this level and find a ceiling.

New York was one of the luckiest teams in the league and profiled more like a .500 club, with plenty of low-hanging fruit after the Joe Judge disaster. Can Daboll take the Giants to the next level, and how does DC Wink Martindale's scheme work when the pass rush doesn't get home?

Last year's preseason ranking: 16

The Bills have a proven winning formula under Sean McDermott but felt they needed to make a change, moving on from former DC Leslie Frazier and his wealth of success and turning over defensive playcalling to the head coach. McDermott has an awesome history himself on that end, but we'll see how he handles doing nearly everything for this team.

OC Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady (QBs) barely missed a beat on the offensive side even without Daboll last season, so that's good news.

Last year's preseason ranking: 14

Few teams face as much pressure as the Chargers, and Brandon Staley is out of names to blame. He fired both coordinators after a disastrous playoff collapse, and his job might be next if Los Angeles doesn't find some answers.

Staley's specialty is defense, where LA hasn't been great despite plenty of talent. The offense has been better but held back by conservative playcalling. New OC Kellen Moore should change that. He's a creative play caller who plays up-tempo and attacks downfield, putting as much as possible on the QB in a system that should finally put Justin Herbert in a position to shine. He's +900 to win MVP.

This staff also got a big help from Ryan Ficken (ST), who elevated a typically moribund special teams unit from 28th in DVOA to 6th. Staley has had some high highs but other times looks uncertain how aggressive to be or how much to rely on analytics. This is a make-or-break year.

Last year's preseason ranking: 32

Coaching salaries don't count toward the NFL salary cap, and the Panthers took full advantage, building a new All-Star staff with a litany of exciting names up and down the roster.

HC Frank Reich leads the way. He's a malleable and confident game manager and should bounce back from a disastrous year in Indianapolis. DC Ejiro Evero is a hot young name defensively after a great year with the Broncos. OC Thomas Brown looks like a future head coach and comes from the McVay tree. Chris Tabor (ST) consistently has special teams units near the top of the league.

Add in names like Josh McCown (QBs), Duce Staley (RBs), and Parks Frazier (passing coordinator) along with stalwart assistants Dom Capers and Jim Caldwell, and this is a superstar staff built to win now.

Carolina had the worst coaches in the league last season and now assembled a deep, intriguing staff. They could be this year's Giants, taking advantage of low-hanging fruit with a huge coaching leap to make a surprise push. The Panthers are +400 to win a weak NFC South division.

Tier 5 — Hard to Argue With the Results

Last year's preseason ranking: 8

Did you know the Steelers have never finished below .500 in 16 seasons under Mike Tomlin? Of course, you did, and it's a remarkable stat, but it's hard to nail down what exactly Tomlin does at a great level.

He's built a proven winning culture and a slew of top defenses, but his teams tend to no-show a few times a year and seem to perform best when counted out. They've also been inconsistent at best offensively, and OC Matt Canada leaves much to be desired on that end. Still, it's hard to argue with the results.

The six staffs in this section have two things in common — every head coach here has been to the Super Bowl, and every one of their fan bases will think their ranking is too low because of that.

Last year's preseason ranking: 20

Everyone knows the Tomlin stat, but the Seahawks have never finished below seven wins with Pete Carroll. Since his debut year, Carroll is 161-112-1 and has never won less than seven in the same 16-year window as Tomlin. Carroll has a great history of developing young players and showed his stuff last year, coaxing unexpected development from QB Geno Smith and rookies on the offensive line and in the secondary.

It turns out that maybe Carroll was making Russell Wilson look great all those years, not the other way around. OC Shane Waldron's offense barely even dropped off without Wilson, even with two rookie tackles. The defense was less promising but may have been personnel, and Carroll and Larry Izzo (ST) typically have the special teams near the top of the league too.

Last year's preseason ranking: 9

It was a surprise when the Cowboys moved on from OC Kellen Moore, and Mike McCarthy will call plays for the first time since 2018. He's had great results over the years but had Aaron Rodgers for most of that, and there's reason for skepticism with nominal OC Brian Schottenheimer, hated everywhere he's gone and far too run-heavy for the modern era. But Schotty has been an effective play designer and could get CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks the ball in space and open things up for Dak Prescott, and McCarthy is typically pass-heavy as a play caller. Could this offense be a little less efficient passing but still end up better by increasing pass volume?

The team will get plenty of help from elite DC Dan Quinn, whose aggressive defense led the lead in takeaways two straight years. McCarthy leaves plenty to be desired as a game manager, but this formula could still work — or go very, very sideways.

Last year's preseason ranking: 22

The Jaguars proved me wrong last year as Doug Pederson finished over .500 for the fourth time in five years. I'm still not sold on him as a play caller, but Pederson makes bold situational decisions during games that put his team in a position to win.

Jacksonville also got a big boost in special teams when Heath Farwell (ST) helped the team leap from 31st to 11th in DVOA. The jury is still out on OC Press Taylor and DC Mike Caldwell, so we'll see if last year's leap was coaching or just Trevor Lawrence and a bad division.

Last year's preseason ranking: 27

The Broncos hope they've moved on from last year's disastrous coaching staff with the hiring of Sean Payton, but I'm skeptical. Denver's hiring process was confusing, to say the least, and we've yet to see Payton without Drew Brees or OC Pete Carmichael. Payton never finished with fewer than seven wins in 15 Saints seasons but also had five years at 8-8 or worse with a Hall of Fame QB.

I'm also more than a little skeptical about OC Joe Lombardi and DC Vance Joseph. Lombardi's offenses have been super pass-heavy but inefficient, and Joseph's defenses tend to be over-aggressive and leave the team exposed. We'll see if Denver really found that magic elixir.

Last year's preseason ranking: 23

As long as the Bengals keep winning, I have to keep begrudgingly sliding this staff up my list, but I'm still not a believer in Zac Taylor. He doesn't do anything creative with this offense, refusing to add motion and consistently going run-heavy on early downs. Is this offense simply being carried by Joe Burrow and all that receiving talent?

DC Lou Anarumo is the real deal. He makes brilliant in-game adjustments, and Cincinnati second-half plays remain a cash cow in the betting market, now 24-4 ATS over the last 28 Bengals games. This coaching staff is more impactful in the postseason than the regular season.

Tier 6 — I'm Buying What They're Selling

Last year's preseason ranking: 28

We don't know as much yet about the coaching staffs in this tier, but the Falcons looked pretty good last fall.

In an alternate universe, we might regard Arthur Smith like we do Brian Daboll. He elevated this offense to shocking heights, doing miracles in the run game. The next question is whether he can bring the play-action success he had with Ryan Tannehill to this Atlanta offense and its many talented weapons. Like Daboll, we've seen the floor raising but need to see a ceiling now too.

I'm optimistic about new DC Ryan Nielsen. He has a history of developing pass rushers in New Orleans and brings aggression to a defense that added a lot of veteran help. This is his first time calling plays but he'll get help from Jerry Gray, a great talent developer in the secondary.

I love this Falcons staff and considered ranking them as high as No. 10. Atlanta is +210 to win the NFC South.

Last year's preseason ranking: 30

The best coordinator news of the summer came for the Lions when OC Ben Johnson decided to stick around. Johnson has been a revelation, getting more from Jared Goff than McVay ever did and fielding a balanced attack with efficient passing. He's a star and a surefire future head coach, but the problem is the rest of this staff.

HC Dan Campbell is quirky and likable but that doesn't mean he's a great coach, and DC Aaron Glenn has given little reason to believe in two years. Detroit might almost be better off taking a step back this season and deciding to move on from Campbell so Johnson gets his coaching opportunity right there in the Motor City instead of elsewhere.

Last year's preseason ranking: 15

It's easy to get excited about Shane Steichen's fit with the Colts. He's a malleable and modern play caller and looks like a facsimile of Nick Sirianni. His offense takes care of the ball and racks up yardage, built perfectly to develop Anthony Richardson in the Jalen Hurts role that made him an MVP candidate. Steichen also has similar aggression tendencies that give Sirianni big edges.

But what's up with this staff? The Colts maddeningly retained retread DC Gus Bradley, who fields predictable defenses that limit big plays but don't produce turnovers or hold up against top offenses. OC Jim Bob Cooter is also an odd fit with Steichen as pass-heavy as his history skews. I fear Jim Irsay may have given the keys to Steichen but stuck him with a couple of unwanted chaperones.

Last year's preseason ranking: 18

The Vikings went 13-4 in Kevin O'Connell's debut, but he fell in my rankings. O'Connell didn't offer much innovation in playcalling and benefited from an unsustainable 11-0 in one-score games despite a negative point differential. He needs to show more with so much talent.

The defense gets a makeover under DC Brian Flores, moving on from a conservative Fangio scheme to aggressive blitzing that will force the issue. Flores has a history of making things work but it could take some time and might lead to lots of big plays both ways and shootouts in Minnesota games.

Last year's preseason ranking: 31

The Texans feel good about a coaching staff for the first time in a while after landing DeMeco Ryans. He was outstanding leading the 49ers defense, and it's encouraging that he's turning defensive duties over to new DC Matt Burke to focus on being a head coach.

Ryans brings OC Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco. It's Slowik's first time calling plays at any level, but he's followed Shanahan for years and should bring a familiar feel. Ryans and Slowik look like a pair that could rise quickly, but they're unproven for now.

Tier 7 — Has the League Passed Them By?

Last year's preseason ranking: 10

We've reached the bottom 10, and the Titans are the first of a few shocking teams in this tier.

It's not entirely Mike Vrabel's fault. He makes good in-game decisions and has a knack for winning close games, and he'd gone over .500 every year before all the injuries last fall. Unfortunately, he's also old school, as seen in his run-heavy leans and the way he builds his staff.

DC Shane Bowen sells out to stop the run but buries the pass defense, and OC Tim Kelly means a third season in four with a new offensive coordinator and takes over after leading a disappointing Titans passing attack.

Last year's preseason ranking: 13

Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year his first season with the Browns and went on to deliver Cleveland's first playoff victory since 1994, but he's gone under .500 both years since and has yet to finish in the top half of the division. His offenses haven't been good enough and skew too run-heavy, though Bill Callahan (OL) is a big help.

Stefanski could get some help from a couple of new assistants. Bubba Ventrone (ST) should improve the special teams, and DC Jim Schwartz could be a real difference-maker with so much talent on defense. He's been a master of the defensive front, developing elite defensive tackles and shutting down the run, which Cleveland struggled to defend a year ago. Schwartz uses wide-nine technique to release speed rushers off the edge. With Za'Darius Smith in tow too, could that mean a breakout Defensive Player of the Year season for Myles Garrett (+750)?

Last year's preseason ranking: 25

The Commanders are a confounding team to rank. On the one hand, Ron Rivera feels well past his expiration date. He's been at or below .500 all three years in Washington and nine of 12 years overall — somehow winning Coach of the Year in two of the other three years. There's no doubt he's a good leader of men and quite likable, but his teams aren't winning.

On the other hand, both coordinators look good. DC Jack Del Rio continues to find success, top three in fewest yards allowed in two of the last three seasons with a great history stopping the run. New OC Eric Bieniemy is the wildcard. He led the Chiefs offense the last five seasons, but how much did he really lead them with Andy Reid calling the plays? There's some upside here.

Last year's preseason ranking: 26

The Jets come in right at last year's ranking. Robert Saleh showed off his defensive chops turning a last-place Jets defense from his debut into a top-five unit, like he'd led twice in San Francisco. Saleh runs predictable, even fronts but sometimes that works with a roster this talented. He's not great at managing the game though, rating as the most conservative coach in the league last season.

It's hard to get excited about new OC Nathaniel Hackett after his disastrous year leading Denver, and you wonder if this hire was just Aaron Rodgers bait. Hackett was with Rodgers for his recent MVP years in Green Bay but didn't call plays and he skews run-heavy and old-school. Saleh also hired Todd Downing after a miserable year leading Tennessee's offense. This reeks of comfortability for Rodgers.

Last year's preseason ranking: 7

This is a stunning fall for the Packers from No. 7 to No. 27, especially considering the team basically returns its whole stuff.

How do you dole out credit or blame in Green Bay? Was HC Matt LaFleur responsible for the 13 wins each of his first three years, or is he to blame for the nine losses last year, nearly as many as his first three seasons combined? How much credit should've gone to Rodgers, Davante Adams, or the departed assistants? LaFleur's offenses lean too run-heavy and haven't been far above average, which isn't great as much talent as he's worked with.

The assistants on this team are where things really go sideways. DC Joe Barry might be the worst coordinator in the league. Green Bay's defense is littered with talent but Barry has done nothing with it. He's been a disaster for six years as a DC in three different stops, frequently a sieve against the run and inefficient defending the pass. And then there's Rich Bisaccia (ST), a longtime special teams specialist who led the worst such unit in the NFL last fall by DVOA.

The Packers are a chic sleeper, but this coaching staff will have to prove this ranking wrong to maximize an inexperienced roster.

Tier 8 — I've Seen Enough

Last year's preseason ranking: 21

The Raiders turned everything over to Josh McDaniels, and it sure doesn't look wise so far. McDaniels has now led seven offenses without Tom Brady and had only two successful years among them. He led the worst year in Derek Carr's career forcing him to throw deep and aggressive, abandoning his strengths and eventually choosing to leave the team.

McDaniels has shown himself to be a questionable leader at best, both on and off the field. DC Patrick Graham seems to be a buzzy coordinator name but hasn't produced much of note yet. There's little reason for optimism here. The Belichick tree just hasn't been great.

I've seen enough from the three coaching staffs in this tier. They're just not good and they're all high on the chopping list this fall.

Last year's preseason ranking: 19

The Saints opted for continuity after Sean Payton, but Dennis Allen is the worst coach in the league at 15-38, an awful 4.8-win pace. He's horrendous at managing game situations, and his defensive leadership hasn't been as strong when he's got head coaching responsibilities.

Those fall to new DC Joe Woods, a departure from the usual Saints scheme. He inherits a defense that's slowly lost pieces. The offense retains OC Pete Carmichael, who's done a decent job keeping things afloat even with subpar QBs. Still, it's hard not to think this bet on continuity is just a placeholder until the team is ready to turn the corner and move on.

Last year's preseason ranking: 11

It's a similar story for the Bucs. Their bet on continuity doesn't look great either, with Todd Bowles now 34-50 as a head coach. He won a terrible division last year but has gone under .500 four straight seasons as a head coach with a 5.6-win pace. Bowles has been at the helm for some terrible offenses, and he's conservative and outdated in managing things.

Bowles and his crew are better defensively, but there's unknown on offense too after the team moved on from Byron Leftwich for unknown OC Dave Canales, who last called plays in 2005 at a California high school.

Tier 9 — Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Last year's preseason ranking: 29

The Bears return last year's rookie staff but didn't give much reason for optimism.

Matt Eberflus was a bit of an underwhelming hire, and he and DC Alan Williams certainly didn't show much with this terrible defense. OC Luke Getsy's history was in the passing game but his offense ranked dead last in passing attempts, yards, and YPA and Justin Fields ranked last in virtually every meaningful metric as a passer.

It's possible this staff just doesn't have much personnel to work with, but they rank down here until they prove they belong.

Last year's preseason ranking: 24

It's hard to remember a more inexperienced, more unknown staff than what the Cardinals will roll out.

That starts with new HC Jonathan Gannon, just a scout barely a decade ago. He led an elite defense a year ago, but it's worrying that Eagles fans celebrated his departure and hated his passive, vanilla system. He brought new DC Nick Rallis with him, and Rallis just turned 30 so he's more than a little green. New OC Drew Petzing worked with Gannon in Minnesota but has never called plays at any level. His background leans run-heavy, so that's not inspiring.

This is a super young, weird staff that has a faint whiff of the unknowns in Denver last fall. Arizona fans will hope this goes much better than that did.

5 Key Takeaways for Bettors

1. Don't worry about the loss of OC Eric Bieniemy — the Chiefs still reign supreme.

Bieniemy had been at the helm for all of Mahomes' time as a starter, but Reid calls the plays and Matt Nagy should step in just fine. That coaching staff gets help from specialists on the line and in special teams, along with a great DC Spagnuolo. Not all change is bad. Remember, the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill a year ago and got even better. Replacing Bieniemy could end up being a good thing.

If anything, the more worrying coordinator change among AFC contenders could be Leslie Frazier, with the Bills leaving defensive duties to McDermott. Frazier was a big difference-maker and could be missed. Kansas City is the right Super Bowl favorite at +600. The Chiefs will be fine — but about the other conference…

2. All three serious NFC contenders have real coaching vulnerabilities that could leave the conference up for grabs.

The Eagles (+330), 49ers (+400), and Cowboys (+600) are heavy favorites to win the NFC, but the trio replaced five of their six coordinators. That's often the fallout after great seasons, and it leaves some serious questions and vulnerabilities to each team.

Philadelphia should see continuity on offense but may take its lumps defensively. Dallas is the opposite, with a great defense but question marks on offense. San Francisco continues to hemorrhage coaching talent around Shanahan and could see changes on both sides of the ball.

Those coaching changes leave all three teams vulnerable. The NFC could be ripe for a major sleeper.

3. The Ravens, Dolphins, and Chargers could ride new coordinator hires to new heights this fall.

The intriguing sleepers come in the AFC, with three talented rosters adding an infusion of coaching that could push each to new heights.

The Dolphins bring in Vic Fangio to redesign the defense and stop the explosive plays Mike McDaniel's offense is trying to create. The Chargers made changes on both sides, and Kellen Moore's system could unlock Justin Herbert's potential. The Ravens have names from the college ranks on each side, with Todd Monken's pass-heavy scheme ready to change everything we know about Lamar Jackson's offense.

Last year's article projected the Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins as possible sleepers based on coaching changes. All three were among the final eight teams standing. Could the Ravens (+900), Dolphins (+1100), or Chargers (+1100) win the AFC?

4. The Saints and Bucs could have a glass ceiling with outdated coaching staffs, leaving the NFC South cracked for innovative Panthers and Falcons staffs.

Dennis Allen and Todd Bowles feel like placeholders for New Orleans and Tampa Bay at this point. Either one could be an intriguing bet for first coach fired if your book offers it.

If not, you can bet against Allen and Bowles by betting on the other two teams in a wide-open NFC South. Both the Panthers (+400) and Falcons (+210) have talented coaching staffs with excellent coordinators built to maximize rosters and make a playoff push.

5. Before you get too excited about the Packers, Jets, or Bears as your sleeper, just know that it won't be the coaching.

It's easy to get excited about Aaron Rodgers' new team, his old one, or his longtime archenemy. But before you talk yourself into the unknown upside on those three rosters, beware that talent takes the right scheme to maximize it. Green Bay, New York, and Chicago may not have the right setup in place to make that surprise Cinderella run you're dreaming about.