Cardinals vs Falcons Odds & Pick: Best Bet Is Tyler Allgeier Player Prop

Cardinals vs Falcons Odds & Pick: Best Bet Is Tyler Allgeier Player Prop article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Allgeier.

  • The Falcons are 6.5-point favorites against the Cardinals.
  • Arizona will start David Blough, its fourth QB of the season.
  • Cody Goggin previews the matchup and lays out his betting pick below.

Cardinals vs Falcons Odds

Sunday, Jan. 1
1 p.m. ET
Cardinals Odds
-110o / -110u
Falcons Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

In another Week 17 battle of two inexperienced quarterbacks, we look for a Cardinals vs Falcons pick with the recently-signed David Blough starting opposite rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback.

Blough hasn’t appeared in an NFL game in more than two years and hasn't started since 2019. Ridder, a third-round pick in this years’ draft, has just two starts in his young NFL career.

So, what do we do with that when examining Cardinals vs Falcons odds?

At this point of the season, the Cardinals roster is insanely injured and limping toward the end of the season. Atlanta has been eliminated from playoff contention but is focused evaluating Ridder as a potential starting quarterback moving forward.

Along with Ridder, a lot of the other young players on this team have been getting more run, including a running back whose props I think are undervalued this weekend.

Cardinals vs. Falcons Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cardinals and Falcons match up statistically:

Cardinals vs. Falcons DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2930
Pass DVOA2930
Rush DVOA2723
Overall DVOA1425
Pass DVOA1719
Rush DVOA427

While the Falcons are not the most talented team in the league, head coach Arthur Smith has shown that he is able to call plays and put his players in a good position to succeed. Atlanta hasn’t been a great passing team this season behind Ridder and Mariota, but it has been one of the most effective rushing teams in the league.

Atlanta ranks fourth in the league in rushing EPA per play and third in rushing success rate. According to Pro Football Focus' OL/DL Matchup Chart, Atlanta has the second-biggest advantage in the running game of any team this week. The Falcons have the best PFF run blocking grade in the entire league at 80.4 and fifth-best rushing grade at 90.6.

Bet Arizona vs. Atlanta FanDuel

The running game is where I really think you can find an edge in this game. Since Ridder has taken over at quarterback, Tyler Allgeier has become a main focus of this offense. Over these last two weeks, Allgeier has gotten 17 and 18 rushing attempts. The Falcons run the ball more than almost any other team in football (second at 55.49%) and Allgeier has taken over as the main beneficiary of this.

With 139 yards and averaging 8.2 yards per carry against the Saints, it’s no surprise that Allgeier saw an increased workload again last week. If last weekend was the only Falcons’ game you had watched all year, you would have thought that this was the star of their offense based on his usage.

While the Falcons have been one of the best rushing teams in the league this year, Arizona has struggled to defend the run. The Cardinals rank 25th in PFF run defense grade, 21st in rushing EPA per play allowed and 23rd in rushing success rate allowed. 

The Cardinals also have seen numerous injuries stack up in recent weeks. In addition to Kyler Murray, Arizona will also play this game without Budda Baker, Byron Murphy Jr., Zach Allen, Antonio Hamilton and DeAndre Hopkins. Baker, Murphy, and Allen have all been among the Cardinals’ best run defenders this season.

Betting Picks

Tyler Allgeier should see a sizable workload in a likely positive game script. While I expect the Falcons to have a lot of success and lead for much of this game, Allgeier is the target for my best bet of this game. This line should be well over 75.5 yards as Atlanta may approach 40 totalrushing attempts for the game and Allgeier will have plenty of opportunities to break off a big one.

You can get the best number on Allgeier's rushing yards at BetMGM, as of 6 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 75.5 Rushing Yards. | Bet to 79.5

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