NFL Week 9 Monday Morning Moneyback: Blowouts and Brawls
Favorites posted a third consecutive strong Sunday, finishing at 6-3-2 ATS yesterday. Over the past three Sundays, favorites are a combined 21-10-4 (68 percent) ATS. Each of the three underdogs that did cover against the closing number won outright – Panthers +3, Redskins +7, and Colts +6.
Under bettors enjoyed a profitable day at 7-4 against the closing number, and home teams barely came out on top ATS in Week 9 at a 5-4-2 clip.
From an entertainment value standpoint, we experienced a very boring day of football, as illustrated by the 12.5 point average margin of victory. If not for garbage time touchdowns from the Ravens and Dolphins, eight of the 11 games on Sunday would have been decided by double digits.
The San Francisco 0-9ers lost at home to Drew Stanton, dropping to 0-9 on the season. Conversely, the Browns had their first weekend of the year without a loss – thanks to a bye week. The race for the first overall draft pick should stay tight until the finish.
Only four teams in the NFL have a point differential greater than plus-50:
- Rams +108
- Eagles +104
- Jaguars +89
- Saints +66
Playoffs? Talking about playoffs? Why not? If the season ended today, here is what the NFL postseason picture would look like:
- Eagles (8-1)
- Saints (6-2)
- Vikings (6-2)
- Rams (6-2)
- Panthers (6-3)
- Cowboys (5-3)
- Steelers (6-2)
- Patriots (6-2)
- Chiefs (6-3)
- Titans (5-3)
- Jaguars (5-3)
- Bills (5-3)
Key Injuries on Sunday:
49ers LB Reuben Foster – Leg (?)
49ers S Jaquiski Tartt – Arm (IR)
49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk – Neck (?)
Bengals S Shawn Williams – Hamstring (?)
Bengals DT Pat Sims – Calf (?)
Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Shoulder (?)
Bucs DE William Gholston – Neck (?)
Cowboys WR Dez Bryant – Ankle (?)
Cowboys WR Terrance Williams – Ankle (?)
Cowboys OT Tyron Smith – Groin (?)
Cowboys DT Brian Price – Knee (?)
Dolphins OT Ja’Wuan James – Hamstring (?)
Dolphins DR Ndamukong Suh – Knee (?)
Giants LB Keenan Robinson – Quad (?)bv fc
Jaguars DE Dante Fowler – Elbow (?)
Jaguars OT Cam Robinson – Ankle (?)
Saints S Kenny Vaccaro – Groin (?)
Seahawks DE Marcus Smith – Concussion (?)
Seahawks RB Eddie Lacy – Groin (?)
Texans TE Ryan Griffin – Concussion (?)
Texans CB Jonathan Joseph – Leg (?)
Bears, Browns, Vikings, Patriots, Steelers and Chargers had byes this week; the Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders and Eagles have byes next week.
Let’s take a quick look at each game from yesterday…
Rams (-6) at Giants
Rams win 51-17 (Over 52.5)
Jared Goff, who finished with a 146.8 quarterback rating, threw for 311 yards and four touchdowns on 14-22 passing. Goff did not throw an interception and did not even get hit on a single dropback.
The Rams, who now lead the NFL in net points, have now scored more points in eight games this year than they did in all 16 games last year.
Not much to say about the Giants, but Eli Manning did become the seventh quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 50,000 yards.
All you need to know about this game is the Rams not only converted on a third and 33, they scored a touchdown on the play.
Bucs at Saints (-7)
Saints win 30-10 (Under 54)
Drew Brees hit Alvin Kamara for a 33-yard touchdown in the final minute of the second quarter to give the Saints a 16-3 halftime lead. The only Saints touchdown prior to that play occurred on a punt block in the first quarter. New Orleans never looked back, as they increased their lead to 30-3 six minutes into the third quarter before the game ground to a halt.
Brees finished an efficient 22-27 passing for 263 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Kamara continued his impressive rookie campaign, adding two more touchdowns on 16 touches for over 150 yards from scrimmage.
Tampa actually won the turnover battle, but their offense, which finished with only 200 total yards, could never establish any momentum. Ryan Fitzpatrick took over in the second half for Jameis Winston, who injured his shoulder once again, but it would not have made a difference. DeSean Jackson led the Bucs in receiving with 25 yards, and Peyton Barber led them in rushing with 34 yards.
I don’t think Marshon Lattimore is human. The rookie star cornerback held Mike Evans to one catch for 13 yards on six targets. As a result, Lattimore overtook Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith for the lowest passer rating against in the entire NFL. Evans did not have a pleasant Sunday, as you can see from the video below.
Mike Evans shoves Lattimore and things get nasty… pic.twitter.com/HTC8x3cF51
— Highlight Heaven (@nfl_5s) November 5, 2017
Broncos at Eagles (-7)
Eagles win 51-23 (Over 41)
Carson Wentz, who threw for four more touchdowns on Sunday without his favorite target, Zach Ertz, became the first player in Eagles franchise history with 17 touchdowns over a five-game stretch.
The Eagles actually scored enough touchdowns on Sunday to run out of fireworks for their celebrations. Corey Clement found pay dirt three times, and Alshon Jeffery scored twice; Jay Ajayi and Trey Burton also found the endzone.
Philadelphia’s run defense continues to dominate, as Denver only rushed the ball for 35 yards on 19 carries. Teams simply do not run much against them since the Eagles usually establish an early lead; the Eagles have outscored teams 64-9 in the first quarter this season.
The only players worth mentioning for the Broncos are Brandon McManus, who made two 50-plus field goals, and Demaryius Thomas, who finished with eight catches, 70 yards and a touchdown. Denver finished with 226 total yards of offense and 105 yards on 14 penalties.
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 5, 2017
Bengals at Jaguars (-6)
Jaguars win 23-7 (Under 38)
No Leonard Fournette, no problem for the Jaguars, who put up 408 yards of total offense against a lifeless Bengals team. Jacksonville finished 12-18 on third down and held Cincinnati to 1-8 on third down.
Jalen Ramsey had the task of taking A.J. Green out of the game, and he did just that when both players were ejected for fighting with a few seconds remaining in the second quarter. However, don’t let that fight overshadow the fact that Ramsey held Green to only one catch for six yards in the first half.
The Jaguars improved to 3-0 this season against the AFC North with a +74 point differential – and they haven’t even played the Browns yet.
Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 total yards despite the fact they won the turnover battle and allowed a punt return for a touchdown. To put that into perspective, Adrian Peterson ran the ball on 37 plays for 159 yards on Sunday. It gets worse – Cincy ran 20 plays for 16 TOTAL YARDS in the second half. Keep an eye on Green’s status next week against Tennessee, as he may be facing a suspension.
— Next Man Up (@spottingboard) November 5, 2017
Ravens at Titans (PUSH)
Titans win 23-20 (Over 41)
Baltimore actually won the box score with more yards, more first downs and greater time of possession. However, the Titans won the turnover battle and had many more explosive plays on offense. Tennessee finished the day with five plays of 20-plus yards; the Ravens had zero.
Neither team could establish a running game. The Ravens, who only rushed the ball 22 times for 73 yards, held Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry and Demarco Murray to only 65 yards on 20 rushes. A healthy Brandon Williams makes all the difference for Baltimore up front on the defensive side of the ball.
For the fourth straight week, the Ravens ruined the under with a late touchdown. Sunday marked the second time in three weeks that Joe Flacco led the Ravens down the field on a 75-yard drive to score an essentially meaningless touchdown in the final seconds to push the game over the total. Five straight overs have cashed in Ravens games.
Kevin Byard intercepted Joe Flacco twice on Sunday, which gives him five interceptions over his last two games – tying an NFL record. In contrast, the Raiders’ entire team has zero interceptions on the season.
Colts (+6) at Texans
Colts win 20-14 (Under 45)
Jacoby Brissett lit up the Texans defense for 308 yards and two touchdowns on 20/30 passing – good enough for a 122.6 quarterback rating. His favorite target on Sunday was T.Y Hilton, who finished with five catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
Houston knew they would desperately miss Deshaun Watson, but they didn’t think it would be this bad. Tom Savage completed only 43 percent of his passes on Sunday, finishing 19/44 for 219 yards. The only points the Texans scored prior to a late fourth quarter touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins came on a Lammarr Houston defensive scoop and score. Hopkins and Will Fuller combined for only eight receptions on 24 total targets. Yikes.
Falcons at Panthers (+3)
Panthers win 20-17 (Under 42)
Atlanta lost their fourth game in the last five to fall to 4-4 on the season. This game boiled down to the running games of each team, as the Falcons only ran for 53 total yards; conversely, Carolina ran for over 200 yards.
Cam Newton didn’t do much through the air (13-24 137 yards), but he led the Panthers with 86 rushing yards on nine carries.
The Falcons led 10-0 with three minutes left in the first quarter and didn’t score again until Matt Ryan hit Tevin Coleman for a 19-yard touchdown with three minutes left in the fourth quarter. Julio Jones led all players with 118 receiving yards on six catches, but he did not find the endzone.
Cam Newton just dunked on Trufant. What a timeline we live in pic.twitter.com/N7aGlI9cvu
— Mr. Beastly ?? (@inbeastitrust) November 5, 2017
Chiefs at Cowboys (-3)
Cowboys win 28-17 (Under 53)
Thanks to a dominant offensive line effort, Dallas had a productive day in all phases on offense. Dak Prescott threw for two touchdowns and ran for another, Terrance Williams caught nine balls for 141 yards, and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown.
The Cowboys saw their 14-3 lead with 13 seconds left in the first half evaporate into a 17-14 deficit just a few minutes into the second half thanks to a ridiculous Tyreek Hill touchdown to end the first half and an opening drive touchdown to start the second half. However, Dallas recovered, and Kansas City never scored again. The Chiefs’ offensive line remains a major problem.
Alex Smith, who finished with 263 yards and two touchdowns on 25-34 passing, threw his first interception of the season late in the fourth quarter on a fourth and 8 pass in Dallas territory. Smith did not get any help from the running game, as the Cowboys limited Kareem Hunt to only 37 yards on nine carries. Travis Kelce found the endzone and led the Chiefs in receiving with 73 yards on seven catches.
— Cowboys Nation (@CowboysNation) November 6, 2017
Cardinals (-3) at 49ers
Cardinals win 20-10 (Under 39)
Drew Stanton finished with a pedestrian 201 yards on 15-30 passing, but the Cardinals leaned on Adrian Peterson, who ran the ball 37 times for 159 yards. Peterson became the fourth-fastest player to reach 12,000 rushing yards; only Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders did it faster.
Larry Fitzgerald, who caught five passes for 70 yards, passed Tim Brown for sixth on the NFL all-time receiving yards list (behind only Randy Moss, Isaac Bruce, Tony Gonzalez, Terrell Owens and Jerry Rice). Jerry Rice has the most with just under 23,000 career yards; no other player has more than 16,000.
C.J. Beathard threw the ball 51 times in a game in which the 49ers trailed 14-10 at the start of the fourth quarter. In comparison, Carlos Hyde only rushed the ball 12 times for 41 yards; Hyde did finish as the 49ers’ leading receiver, catching nine balls for 84 yards.
— Chat Sports (@ChatSports) November 5, 2017
Redskins (+7) at Seahawks
Redskins win 17-14 (Under 44.5)
If you only look at the box score, you will come away very confused as to how the Redskins won this game. Washington traveled to Seattle with a crippled offensive line and without two of their top receiving weapons. The Seahawks only ran the ball 23 times for 51 yards, and they were outgained 437-244 in total yards. However, thanks to Blair Walsh and 16 Seattle penalties for 138 yards, the Redskins found a way.
Blair Walsh missed three field goals in the first half, becoming the first kicker to do so since Mike Nugent in 2014. Seattle also failed to convert on both of their two-point conversion attempts. Talk about leaving points on the table. I find it interesting that Blair Walsh was cut at this exact time last season with the same exact number of field goal misses and attempts.
Russell Wilson continues to put the Seahawks on his back. He threw for 297 yards,and appeared to win the game with 1:30 left in regulation on a 30-yard touchdown pass to Doug Baldwin, who finished with seven receptions for 108 yards. Wilson also led the Seahawks in rushing once again, carrying the ball 10 times for 77 yards. In fact, Chris Carson, who hasn’t played in a month, leads all Seahawks running backs in rushing this season with 208 yards. Sad.
Josh Doctson essentially won the game for the Redskins with a spectacular diving 38-yard catch to set up the game-winning Redskins touchdown with under a minute to go. Maybe that play ignites the rookie, who has struggled mightily at times this season.
— Bovada Official (@BovadaLV) November 6, 2017
Raiders at Dolphins (PUSH)
Raiders win 27-24 (Over 45)
The Dolphins’ 12-game winning streak in one-possession games came to an end on Sunday in a game that featured one of the most even box scores you will ever see. Under bettors did not enjoy the final Miami touchdown drive that pushed the total over 45, and Raiders -3 bettors were not pleased when Miami then converted the two-point conversion.
The Raiders’ defense has gone the first nine games of the season without an interception, which is an NFL record. They made Jay Cutler, who finished the game with three touchdowns and 311 yards on 34-42 passing, look 10 years younger on Sunday night. Julius Thomas led Miami in receiving with 84 yards and a touchdown on six catches.
Derek Carr, who threw for 300 yards on the nose, connected with Jared Cook eight times for 126 yards. Marshawn Lynch found the endzone twice on 14 carries for 57 yards.