Our Experts’ 3 Favorite Bears vs. Rams Picks for Sunday Night Football
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff (16), Khalil Mack (52)
Bears at Rams Odds & Picks
- Odds: Rams -6
- Over/Under: 40
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
The Los Angeles Rams are near touchdown favorites a week after getting upset by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Is Sean McVay’s squad being overvalued against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football?
Our experts reveal how they’re betting this game, complete with a spread and moneyline pick.
Sean Koerner: Bears Moneyline (+240)
Jared Goff was sacked four times in the Rams’ loss to the Steelers last week. The offensive line has become a real issue and Goff will see similar pressure from the Bears, who rank fifth in creating pressure at 27.2% of drop backs. Goff has been below-average against pressure this season with a QB Rating of 59.5 (22nd per Pro Football Focus). He’ll also be without one of his key WRs in Brandin Cooks again.
It’s a common narrative that Goff is better at home. And while that may be true in terms of statistical production, it’s worth noting that he’s 7-13 against the spread at home in his career.
The line is about right at Rams -6, but this is a matchup between teams that can be very volatile at times, and it’s worth snagging the moneyline on the underdog in such spots, which is why I’m putting a small play on Bears ML +240.
Chris Raybon: Under 40
Despite the offensive pedigrees of Sean McVay and Matt Nagy, this game sets up as a defensive slugfest. It features two top-seven defenses in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA (which weights recent games more heavily) going up against offenses that each rank 22nd or worse.
Neither team will get much out of its offensive line — the Bears are ranked 22nd in both pass and run blocking by PFF, while the Rams are ranked 30th in pass blocking and 26th in run blocking. That will make it tough to create explosive plays as both defense rank top-five in both explosive pass and run rate allowed.
This game sets up for — cover your eyes, Bears fans — a battle of kickers, and defensive touchdowns are probably the biggest threat to this game going over.
When these teams met last December, the Bears won 15-6 in Chicago, and I think we’re in for a similar type of game.
Stuckey: First-Half Under 20.5
In a matchup of two top-five overall defenses in DVOA, I’m rolling with the first-half under of 20.5 in a game I think will be dominated by each defensive front. I prefer the first-half under vs. the fill game in case one team gets a lead and the trailing team has to abandon what I anticipate will be a run-heavy game script.
With these questionable offensive lines and vulnerable quarterbacks, trying to throw from behind could get messy with turnovers.
When these teams met last season in Chicago, the Bears pulled out a 15-6 win. That was the first game their offense started to struggle as Vic Fangio showed the league the script for slowing down the Rams with a six-man defensive front and zone in the back. McVay has struggled to adapt to the NFL’s adjustments since (although the poor offensive line play and Goff’s contract haven’t helped matters to be fair.)
I don’t think it will be that ugly, but the first half should be a run-heavy punt fest as both coaches worry about their quarterbacks turning it over in front of porous offensive lines in a critical game for both teams.
Get ready to hear the names Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald all night — let’s just hope neither score a touchdown in the first half.