Bengals vs Bills Player Props: Picks for Tyler Boyd, Josh Allen

Bengals vs Bills Player Props: Picks for Tyler Boyd, Josh Allen article feature image

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Boyd.

I have no interest in picking a side or total for the Monday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. However, there’s always value in the player props market.

We can take advantage of these player props by using No House Advantage, which allows us to parlay NFL player props for real money in 26 states – including states where online betting access remains unavailable.

No House Advantage is a DFS operator, meaning the contests are considered a game of skill and thereby legal. There are daily fantasy contests you can enter, but you can also bet on straight NFL player props against the house.

The latter option allows you to parlay between two and five props for escalating payouts. The more props you include and the more you hit, the more cash you can make, with a max payout of 21 times your wager.

Here are my favorite No House Advantage “vs. The House” picks. Feel free to play these two in a parlay, or use these two to build a larger parlay around.

Josh Allen
Over/Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

This game is arguably the biggest of the season. The winner of this primetime matchup has the inside route to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and it has championship and MVP implications baked in.

These are the games Buffalo pulls out all the stops. Head coach Sean McDermott reaches deep into his bag of tricks and finds any potential edge needed.

One of the sport's biggest — and often most underappreciated — quarterbacking edges is Josh Allen’s legs. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound Wyoming product doesn't just have one of the league’s best arms, but his unique combination of speed and toughness makes him a dual threat.

Allen gets to let loose in the more important games. McDermott draws up more designed runs and mixes in more ground and pound with Allen. Check out the trends my colleague, Brandon Anderson, revealed in his Week 17 NFL Picks article:

  • 11 games vs. non-playoff teams last season: 5.7 rushes for 38 yards
  • 8 games vs. playoff teams last season: 9.5 rushes for 59 yards
  • 6 games vs. presumed non-playoff teams this season: 5.8 rushes for 36 yards
  • 9 games vs. presumed playoff teams this season: 9.3 rushes for 60 yards

"The pattern is clear and the numbers are consistent from last season to this. When Buffalo plays its biggest games, Allen runs more, typically around 10 times for 60 yards.”

For example, remember what Allen did in last season’s Wild Card game?

Josh Allen 😱

He already cashed over 49.5 rush yds in the first half ✅

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 16, 2022

Either way, Allen generally gets his opportunities. He’s averaging eight rushing attempts per game this season, including 8.8 over his last five. He’s hit double-digit carries six times this season, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit double-digit carries on Monday.

This creates a monster opportunity for us, given Allen’s rushing prop is depressed in these bigger games. This is my favorite No House Advantage player prop for Week 17 and a must-bet in any No House Advantage against-the-house parlay.

Pick: Over 53.5 rushing yards

Tyler Boyd
Over/Under 35.5 Receiving Yards

Tyler Boyd suffered a finger injury in Week 14 and has barely seen the field since. Boyd posted his lowest snap-count marks of the season in the last two weeks — he played just 51% of potential snaps in Week 16.

As a result, Boyd has fallen under this receiving yards mark in four of his last five games after going over in five consecutive games.

Part of this is the roster, as all the Bengals' pass-catchers are healthy again. That also includes tight end Hayden Hurst, who will play on Monday after missing the last three games.

There’s more competition for targets in Cincinnati’s offense, and Boyd is getting pushed further and further down the depth chart with each passing week.

And there might not be many available targets in this game. The Bills defense is elite — the secondary in particular, as it ranks top 10 in both pass defense DVOA and pass EPA per play allowed.

I’ll fade the regressing Boyd at No House Advantage. Our projections show value on the under, with The Action Labs Player Props Tool projecting Boyd for only 31.7 receiving yards.

Pick: Under 35.5 receiving yards

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