Bengals vs. Raiders Odds & Picks: Back Oakland As Double-Digit Favorite?

Bengals vs. Raiders Odds & Picks: Back Oakland As Double-Digit Favorite? article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derek Carr

  • Our experts analyze Sunday's matchup featuring the Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders, complete with odds and picks.

Bengals at Raiders Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Raiders -10.5
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel:  CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Not only do the Cincinnati Bengals have the worst record at 0-9, but they also have one of the worst records against the spread at 3-6. And now they’re double-digit underdogs against the Oakland Raiders.

But could this be one of the weeks they cover?

Our experts preview the biggest mismatch, make their picks and more.

Bengals-Raiders Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

It appears the Bengals will be without A.J. Green (ankle) with his continued absence from practice. Additionally, Geno Atkins was downgraded to a missed practice on Thursday with a knee issue. This wouldn’t be ideal for a defense that already ranks almost dead last in every category.

Josh Jacobs continue to pop on the Raiders’ injury report with a shoulder injury, but it hasn’t slowed him down at all. He should be ready to go in this sublime matchup. Safety Lamarcus Joyner looks like the most likely to sit out after his downgrade on Thursday. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Raiders Running Backs vs. Bengals Linebackers

The Bengals are so bad against running backs that both Jacobs and DeAndre Washington are popping this week in our FantasyLabs Models even though Washington hasn’t had more than six carries in any game this season.

The Bengals are No. 29 in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. They’re at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.50 second-level yards allowed per run. Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.

To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Last year, they were also No. 31.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone.

Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs, and that’s reflected in their Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Nick Vigil: 48.7 overall | 44.7 run defense | 56.2 coverage
  • Preston Brown: 44.1 overall | 41.1 run defense | 52.0 coverage

The Bengals just waived Brown and will now likely use rookie Germaine Pratt in his place. Given that Pratt has a 34.1 PFF grade with marks of 56.0 in run defense and 34.9 in coverage, he’s hardly an upgrade.

As for Jacobs, he has an above-average 52% rush success rate and solid 70% catch rate. He’s averaging 104.8 scrimmage yards per game, which is a high mark for a rookie.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28).

In victories, that number has jumped up to 117, and Jacobs could get a lot of usage as a double-digit home favorite.

As for Washington, he could actually have a decent game: The Bengals are so bad that a number of non-lead backs have gone off against them.

  • Raheem Mostert (Week 2): 13-83-0 rushing | 3-68-1 receiving, four targets
  • Jeff Wilson (Week 2): 10-34-2 rushing
  • T.J. Yeldon (Week 3): 8-30-0 rushing | 2-19-0 receiving, three targets
  • Jaylen Samuels (Week 4): 10-26-1 rushing | 8-57-0 receiving, eight targets
  • Chase Edmonds (Week 5): 8-68-1 rushing | 3-18-0 receiving, four targets
  • Darrel Henderson (Week 8): 11-49-0 rushing | 2-20-0 receiving, three targets

If Washington pitched in with 50 yards and a touchdown against a linebacking unit this bad, would it really be surprising?

In total, Jacobs and Washington could combine for 150 yards and two touchdowns against this Vigil- and Brown-shackled Bengals defense. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Raiders -10
  • Projected Total: 48.5

Ryan Finley was a disaster in his first start last week. But in his defense, he had to face a red-hot Ravens defense, and the Raiders will be a much easier matchup so we could see him bounce back.

The Bengals have a +2.9 edge in expected wins vs. actual compared to the Raiders, so we could be underrating Cincinnati and overrating Oakland here.

It may be worth nibbling on Bengals +10.5, which is a lean for me here. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Over 48.5

I’ve been screaming about Raiders overs for the past month-plus and they’ve continued to cash.

I still don’t think the market has fully adjusted to Raiders totals as I consistently have them a point or two higher. They’re my favorite over team in the NFL right now. Why? Well, they have a really good offense — maybe the most underrated in the NFL.

It all starts with their excellent offensive line, which is giving Derek Carr plenty of time in the pocket. Of the 30 NFL quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks this season, Carr has been under pressure at the lowest rate (just north of 25%).

And he hasn’t got enough credit for how well he’s been playing. When he’s been under pressure, he’s been uber-efficient. Carr ranks first among all 30 of those qualified quarterbacks when under pressure in the following categories:

  • Completion percentage: 62.5%
  • Adjusted completion percentage: 82.4%
  • Passer Rating: 109.2

And the only one even in the same ballpark of that superb passer rating number when under pressure is Russell Wilson.

The Raiders also have a top rushing attack with Jacobs, who I already rate as one of the best backs in the NFL. And Carr has weapons to work with on the outside, including tight end Darren Waller.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Darren Waller

Waller and Jacobs could have huge days against a horrendous Bengals defense that’s particularly weak at the linebacker and safety positions. Cincy ranks 31st in defending backs and tight ends in the passing game. And the Bengals’ run defense has been a sieve as they’ve allowed opposing offenses to average 5.2 yards per rush, which is tied with the Panthers for the worst mark in the league.

By many metrics, the Raiders have a top-five offense. Per Football Outsiders, the Raiders offense ranks fifth overall DVOA, which includes top-six ranks in passing and rushing. It’s potent, efficient and balanced.

Now, that’s only one part of why I’m loving Raiders overs. The other is their defense is putrid. They get absolutely no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and their secondary struggles in coverage. That’s not a formula for success in today’s NFL, even against a rookie QB like Finley.

Unlike last week against the heavy-blitzing Ravens and their elite corners, Finley should have plenty of time to throw and his receivers should get open with relative ease against the Raiders.

I’d look at over anything 49 or below in a matchup of the NFL’s two worst defenses in terms of yards per play allowed (Bengals 6.8; Raiders 6.3).

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