Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks: NFL Week 6

Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks: NFL Week 6 article feature image

Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Josh Allen.

  • The Bills are 2.5-point favorites today against the Chiefs.
  • Kansas City infamously knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs last season.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and makes his pick below.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16
4:25 p.m. ET
Bills Odds-2.5
Chiefs Odds+2.5
Moneyline-142 / +120
Odds via FanDuel.

Sunday's game between Kansas City and Buffalo is one of the most highly anticipated of the entire NFL regular season after the two played an instant classic in the divisional round of last season's playoffs.

The market is showing a ton of respect to the Bills, who closed as 1.5-point underdogs in that January meeting. Now, Buffalo is a 2.5-point road favorite on Sunday.

Buffalo has built its team entirely around trying to take down the juggernaut that has eliminated it from the postseason in each of the past two years. The goal is to get a playoff game in Buffalo, instead of having to go to Arrowhead Stadium, and this game will go a long way toward deciding home-field advantage when the games really matter for these two Super Bowl favorites.

Based on the advanced passing numbers from the first five weeks of the season, Kansas City and Buffalo are the two best pass offenses in the league. The nationally televised games haven't met expectations in recent weeks, but Bills-Chiefs should feature plenty of offense and spectacular plays. But after the two teams split their two meetings last year, who has the edge on Sunday?

Bills vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Chiefs match up statistically:

Bills vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA715
Pass DVOA319
Rush DVOA308
Overall DVOA36
Pass DVOA46
Rush DVOA193

Only four offenses in the NFL are above 50% in success rate this season and Kansas City and Buffalo are two of them (along with Seattle and Minnesota).

The Bills added Von Miller over the offseason in an attempt to improve the pass rush and get after the opposing quarterback. The Chiefs offensive line has shown some weakness at times this season against the Colts and Raiders. Kansas City's offensive line ranks 12th in pass block win rate and Buffalo's pass rush is eighth in pass rush win rate.

Despite the occasional struggles this season, Kansas City's offensive line grades out as the ninth best offensive line, per PFF. The key matchup is whether the Bills can get pressure with four or whether Mahomes will be able to escape the pocket and create outside the play script.

Bet at FanDuel
Bills -2.5 | Chiefs +2.5

Buffalo has a clear defensive philosophy — they're not going to blitz. The Bills will only bring four and will take away explosives from Mahomes at all costs. The question for this season's matchup is whether the Chiefs can keep pace without Tyreek Hill. Buffalo is No. 1 against tight ends this season and even held Mark Andrews in check in Baltimore two weeks ago.

The Bills inability to guard Hill and Travis Kelce down the stretch of the playoff game last year is what cost them the game. Everyone remembers the 12 seconds debacle, but the Bills had no answer for Hill throughout the game. He finished that contest with 11 receptions, 150 yards and a touchdown.

Buffalo did dominate the first meeting between the two teams last season, but there were a few high-leverage plays in that game that made it appear more lopsided than it was. Buffalo had a key fourth down stop deep in its own territory and multiple tipped and deflected interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.

Buffalo has dealt with a ton of defensive injuries in the past three weeks, but Friday's injury report suggests the Bills are getting healthier. Both Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips were full participants in practice on Friday and should play in this game. Defensive back Jordan Poyer and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds are also both expected to play.

The Bills defense will be near full strength, but will it be enough to stop Mahomes?

Betting Picks

Buffalo has played at a really fast tempo this season and ranks first in pace in the first halfs of games this year. Part of me wonders if Buffalo will continue to play at that pace on Sunday because of the risks it poses in tiring its own defense down the stretch. Both defenses will be set up to take away explosives from the other at all costs.

The Bills love to use Josh Allen as the de-facto run game, especially when facing other playoff caliber teams. His average carries per game last year in games against non-playoff teams was just 5.7, but that number rose to 9.6 per game in games against playoff teams.

Buffalo has already played three teams expected in the playoffs and he's produced 58 yards per game on 9.7 rush attempts. Mahomes had two games against the Bills last year — he had eight carries for 61 yards in the regular season, and seven for 69 in the playoff game.

This game is once again likely to come down to whichever team has the ball last and for that reason it would be Chiefs +2.5 or nothing if I had to take a side. The Bills first-half pace has been too fast this season for me to even consider betting a first-half under.

Instead, I'm targeting the quarterback props and will be looking to live bet each team at +3.5 or better throughout the game. Both teams should unleash their athletic quarterbacks in this game and if the Bills are successful in getting to Mahomes, he'll be on the move often as a way to counter the two-deep defense taking away explosive plays.


Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | Bet to 50.5
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-120) | Bet to 26.5

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