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Rams vs Broncos Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expert Makes Christmas Bet

Rams vs Broncos Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expert Makes Christmas Bet article feature image
  • The Rams are three-point home underdogs on Christmas against the Broncos.
  • At 35.5, this game has the lowest total of any game on Dec. 25.
  • Stuckey previews the matchup and makes his Rams vs Broncos pick below.

Rams vs Broncos Odds

Sunday, Dec. 25
4:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Rams Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-108
35.5
+142
Broncos Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-112
35.5
-168
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Prior to the season, if you looked at the Christmas slate, you probably got very excited about making a Rams vs Broncos pick. An up-and-coming Broncos team with a loaded roster that added Russell Wilson to address its primary weakness, going against the defending Super Bowl champions.

Well, it obviously didn’t play out that way with both teams already out of playoff contention. Injuries certainly haven’t helped either squad, hence why Baker Mayfield will get another start for Los Angeles and the Rams vs Broncos odds indicate a total of 36.

However, that’s why we have a point spread and an over/under for all those looking for some picks on Christmas Day. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and see where the Rams vs Broncos pick value might lie from a betting perspective.

Rams vs Broncos Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Rams and Broncos match up statistically:

Rams vs Broncos DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 28 15
Pass DVOA 25 23
Rush DVOA 26 5
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 27 4
Pass DVOA 26 1
Rush DVOA 29 17

The Rams have been decimated by injuries, especially on offense. Not only have they lost Matthew Stafford, they’ve also had to make do without their top two receivers and a depleted offensive line.


Bet Denver vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel


That’s bad news for Mayfield, who ranks 34th out of 34 quarterbacks (min. 200 snaps) in EPA+CPOE composite. In fact, he’s the only signal caller who sits in the negative.

  1. Davis Mills: 0.006
  2. Zach Wilson: 0.003
  3. Baker Mayfield: -0.024

Now, Mayfield will have to make something happen against a dominant Denver defense that ranks first in the league in both pass success rate and pass defense DVOA. I can’t envision him having much success.

The Broncos have been a bit more vulnerable against the run and are a league-average team in that regard. However, the Rams rank last in the NFL in rush success rate.

It’s hard to see how Los Angeles sustains any drives Sunday.

Betting Picks

Nobody has wanted to bet the Broncos of late due to their hilarious offensive ineptitude over the first half of the season, but they’ve covered three straight with relative ease. That includes games against the Chiefs and Ravens, contests in which they lost by a combined seven points.

Denver is 4-10, but would be in the playoff discussion if its close losses broke the other way. The Broncos have only lost one game by double digits and have dropped three in overtime.

I think the Broncos are undervalued in the market. The offense is still very poor, but it’s essentially a bit of an upgraded version of the current Rams offense at every position.

The Broncos defense will be the best unit on the field by a wide margin, which should ultimately prove to be the difference. Plus, I don’t give much of a home-field advantage for the Rams in this contest. I can’t imagine too lively of a crowd on Christmas Day rooting for a home team that has been eliminated from playoff contention. The Rams also had one fewer day in between games after playing on Monday night.

I like the Broncos, especially at under a field goal. If you can’t find that price, I’d recommend either playing the moneyline or pairing Denver’s moneyline with another big favorite on the moneyline in a parlay. Every point matters in this one as points should come at a premium.

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