Chargers vs. Jaguars Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will the Return of Minshew Mania Spark Jacksonville?

Chargers vs. Jaguars Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will the Return of Minshew Mania Spark Jacksonville? article feature image

Douglas DeFelice-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.

  • Are the Jacksonville Jaguars being undervalued as home underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers?
  • Our experts preview the Week 14 NFL matchup, featuring betting odds and picks.

Chargers at Jaguars Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chargers -3
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The Chargers and Jaguars enter Sunday’s game out of the AFC playoff picture, but Gardner Minshew returns to start for Jacksonville against a reeling Los Angeles side.

Our experts preview this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a pick.

Chargers-Jaguars Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chargers

The Chargers only noteworthy injury is Mike Williams (knee), who was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. That said, I wouldn’t expect him to be out this game since the Chargers have typically managed his workload early in the week this season.

The Jags placed linebacker Myles Jack (knee) on injured reserve, so they’ll be down one defender, and possibly another one since safety Ronnie Harrison (concussion) hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol. DJ Chark (back) and Chris Conley (ankle) have been limited in practice, but there haven’t been any reports of them potentially missing this game. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Melvin Gordon vs. Jaguars Run Defense

This is a meeting of two disappointing teams from very different paths. Los Angeles has continued to fight despite their 4-8 record. The Chargers have lost their last four games by a combined 13 points, while the Jaguars’ last four losses have come with a combined total of 82 points.

Jacksonville’s respected defense has crumbled, especially against the run. The last four running backs to face the Jaguars have produced the following PPR fantasy performances: RB20 (Carlos Hyde), RB13 (Jonathan Williams), RB3 (Derrick Henry), and RB18 (Peyton Barber).

Gordon is clearly back to full strength with over 100 total yards in three of his past four games. He has failed to reach the end zone in two games, a trend that will likely change against the Jaguars, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Quarterback Philip Rivers has struggled all season failing to produce a QB1 performance since Week 7. His eight interceptions over the Chargers past three games has coincided with a greater touch count for Gordon. Jacksonville will need to scheme out Gordon, who is in line for his most productive performance of the season. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -2.5
  • Projected Total: 43

The Jaguars benched Nick Foles for Gardner Minshew mid-game last week. and considering they spent $88-million on the free-agent QB, that was likely not an easy decision to make, but it’s likely the correct one as the sixth- round rookie has outplayed Foles.

On the other side of the ball, it’s been reported that Phillip Rivers is also in danger of being benched. He’s been a turnover machine of late due to poor decisions and poor throws. It doesn’t help his cause that Tyrod Taylor is one of the better backups in the league.

Either way, this is a spot in which the Jaguars are showing some value at home getting a key number of +3. Let’s wait to see if this can hit +3.5, then the Jaguars will become a play for me. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Jaguars offense is struggling so badly that Nick Foles has been benched for the remainder of the season. Over their past three games, the team has been held to 20 or fewer points.

As a result, more than 60% of spread tickets are on the Chargers as road favorites as of writing. While this may seem like a good time to fade the Jags inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 166-116-59 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,612 following this strategy. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Randle: Over 43

As John Ewing points out, the public feeling will be to fade the struggling Jaguars offense. However, the return of Minshew brings a possible jump start in a home game against a non-divisional opponent.

Over his first eight games this season, Minshew produced 13 touchdowns with only two interceptions. With speedy wide receivers D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, and Chris Conley, Jacksonville has the resources to hit big pass plays against Los Angeles.

The Jaguars’ defense has been a sieve against the run, bringing Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in play for big fantasy performances. Wide receiver Mike Williams is No. 1 in yards per reception and No. 5 in yards per target, yet has not caught a touchdown pass all season. Positive regression is certainly in his favor.

I like the over 43 in a game that could be one of the underrated high scoring games on the slate.

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Mike Randle is 212-205-5 (50.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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