Bears-Giants Betting Preview: Will Eli Muster Enough Offense to Cover?

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at New York Giants

• Spread: Bears -4
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This line didn't open until Friday morning, as uncertainty around Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky's status scared off bookmakers. We haven't seen a ton of movement in the early going, but will update this blurb with any new developments (check live betting data here).

Trends to know: Eli Manning is an underdog at home once again this season. Manning is 13-19-1 against the spread as a home dog including 0-4 ATS in 2018, according to our data from Bet Labs.

In 33 games as a home dog, Manning has only pulled the upset six times. — John Ewing

The Bears' defense leads the NFL in interceptions (20, or 1.82 per game) and faces a Giants offense that has turned the ball over just 12 times this season, tied for the seventh-fewest in the NFL.

Over the past decade, Eli Manning has faced a defense averaging at least 1.5 interceptions per game 17 times. He's 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%), failing to cover the spread by 4.6 PPG.

Manning has lost bettors 6.4 units in this spot, making him the least profitable quarterback in the NFL over the past decade against ball-hawking defenses. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Bears pass rush vs. Giants offensive line

Manning is one sack away from tying his career-high (39) set in 2013, and he still has five games to play.

The Giants’ offensive line, which ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, has been overmatched for most of the season, and the Bears’ 12th-ranked unit in adjusted sack rate isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered.

Khalil Mack gets most of the recognition, but don’t be surprised if stud defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (PFF’s No. 5 overall interior defender) also finds a way to make an impact this Sunday. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Giants

The Bears will reportedly let Trubisky (shoulder) heal up for another week. Stud defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (Achilles) is also banged up, but the team is at least expected to welcome back outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (concussion) along with tight end Adam Shaheen (concussion).

The Giants have health problems themselves, as linebackers B.J. Goodson (neck), Tae Davis (ankle) and Lorenzo Carter (hip) join cornerbacks Grant Haley (hamstring) and Curtis Riley (shoulder) on the injury report. Starting tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) isn’t expected to suit up Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: Both Janoris Jenkins and B.W. Webb rank outside of PFF's top-75 cornerbacks. They're expected to each see a mix of Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson, with undrafted free agent rookie Grant Haley spending most of his time with slot receiver Anthony Miller.

Daniel's target distribution from Week 12 featured Gabriel (eight targets) and Tarik Cohen (eight) over Miller (four) and A-Rob (four).

Gabriel seems like the best value here at just $4,200 on DraftKings. He boasts a strong +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs models. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Bears -4

This may well be another Chase Daniel game, but that's not what's driving my bet. This game is reminiscent of when the Texans played the Redskins a couple of weeks ago. The Texans dominated the weakened Redskins offensive line and seriously injured Alex Smith.

The Bears defense will do the same to a putrid Giants offensive line. The Giants have awful pass protection and the Bears will be in Eli Manning’s kitchen all day long. They will also make life difficult for rookie sensation Saquon Barkley.

It’s a short number for a team that's clearly better, I’m laying it. — BlackJack Fletcher

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.